The Free Agent Relief Pitcher Market
by rglass44 on Dec 17, 2008 11:25 AM EST
28 comments
We like lots of relief pitchers. We have discussed the reasoning many times, so there is no need to delve into that here. Here are the available FA RPs (except for Ken Takahashi and Doug Mathis), and how they look compared to league average in two very important areas: Strikeouts per nine innings pitched and groundball ratio. This is from their last four years of big league data.
| NAME | SO Rate | GB% |
| Al Reyes | 9.31 | 32.92% |
| Aquilino Lopez | 6.13 | 41.32% |
| Brendan Donnelly | 9.28 | 50.81% |
| Brian Shouse | 6.21 | 64.38% |
| Casey Fossum | 6.83 | 54.16% |
| Chris Britton | 5.84 | 35.52% |
| Denny Bautista | 6.19 | 49.01% |
| Dennys Reyes | 7.65 | 66.50% |
| Elmer Dessens | 6.15 | 58.70% |
| Gary Majewski | 5.34 | 56.74% |
| Glendon Rusch | 6.46 | 50.39% |
| Guillermo Mota | 7.71 | 51.03% |
| Jamey Wright | 4.93 | 63.08% |
| Jason Johnson | 5.42 | 62.64% |
| Joe Beimel | 4.98 | 56.22% |
| Joe Borowski | 7.63 | 39.61% |
| Joe Nelson | 9.87 | 43.95% |
| Jon Lieber | 5.36 | 55.06% |
| Juan Cruz | 9.89 | 48.41% |
| Juan Rincon | 9.30 | 53.08% |
| Julian Tavarez | 6.05 | 59.51% |
| Keith Foulke | 7.92 | 38.94% |
| Kip Wells | 6.99 | 57.93% |
| Lance Cormier | 5.24 | 58.73% |
| League Average | 6.83 | 49.05% |
| Luis Ayala | 6.15 | 59.92% |
| Mark Hendrickson | 5.10 | 55.48% |
| Matt Herges | 5.43 | 53.03% |
| Matt Wise | 5.82 | 50.54% |
| Mike Timlin | 5.74 | 54.06% |
| Randy Flores | 7.06 | 49.11% |
| Ricardo Rincon | 8.40 | 52.20% |
| Ron Villone | 7.06 | 46.29% |
| Rudy Seanez | 8.48 | 47.97% |
| Russ Springer | 7.75 | 35.81% |
| Scott Elarton | 5.26 | 41.06% |
| Scott Proctor | 7.82 | 40.68% |
| Shawn Chacon | 6.43 | 44.58% |
| Tom Gordon | 9.28 | 53.41% |
| Tyler Johnson | 7.39 | 45.96% |
| Will Ohman | 8.98 | 41.73% |
| Wlfredo Ledezma | 6.68 | 38.02% |
| Yhency Brazoban | 7.92 | 39.10% |
As you can see, league average is 49.05% and 6.83 for GB% and K/9, respectively. It would be great if we could could get someone who excels at both. An easy way to look at this (as RJ has shown us) is in graphical form.
If you click on it, then it will get larger. Spare me the TWSS.
The 4 quadrants are with the lines for LA numbers. Ideally, we'd like someone from quadrant I (x>6.83, y>49.06%). There are definitely some standouts, and some potential buy-low candidates.
What does everyone think?
Disclaimer: The batted ball data (GB%) is based on Baseball Prospectus's data, which is apparently not as reliable as others. It is the one that is the best for running reports. SO, you take what you can get.
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i agree
Denys would be a great LODGY for us. I’ve always like him.
by RayOfLight on Dec 17, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I think Casey Fossum....
and laugh. Cormier is below avg on his K/9, but is well above average on GB%. Randy Flores looks like a win/win to me.
by Tommy Rancel on Dec 17, 2008 11:33 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Flores walked 20 and struck out 17 last year in just over 25 innings of work
by RayOfLight on Dec 17, 2008 11:36 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Thats why you use 4 years of data so numbers aren't skewed by one good or bad season.
by Tommy Rancel on Dec 17, 2008 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
that's also why you consider walks in addition to strikeouts
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 17, 2008 6:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Kip Wells walked 30 and struck out 31 last year in just over 37 innings of work
and he hasn’t had an ERA under 5 since 2004
by RayOfLight on Dec 17, 2008 11:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pitching in Coors
His FIP the last 5 years:
4.25
5.04
4.82
4.86
5.42
If he is a 4.5 guy, he’s a cheap alternative to Wheeler w/o the FB tendencies. If not you release him.
by rglass44 on Dec 17, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A shame Juan Cruz is a Type A and was offered arbitration
cause it would be great to have. Him and Reyes may cost a bit more then we’re willing to pay.
by RayOfLight on Dec 17, 2008 12:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
FIDDLE ME THIS FIDDLE ME THAT I SEE A FOSSUM COMING BACK
by Sylar on Dec 17, 2008 1:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
No
but how good is Dennys Reyes. On top of his good rates it also seems like him and Guerrier pitched every single game last year. I guess that’ll happen once Neshek went down. That’s another guy I really like.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 17, 2008 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Fiddle cats are for good things
Casey Fossum coming back is not necessarily a good thing. :P
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 17, 2008 2:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Dennys Reyes
Does anyone remember him allowing 5 ER in 50+ IP in 2006? That was good for a 504 ERA+. That’s fun to look at.
Who's world is it? It's yours.
by BlackOps on Dec 17, 2008 1:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Why again are we advocating signing Chris Britton?
I know this is just one measure, but based on this measure, he’s the worst option out there.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 17, 2008 1:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
HE PLAYED FOR THE YANKEES
THE YANKEES!!!!111? HE HAS TO BE GOOD
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 17, 2008 1:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wheeler and Bradford can do the same thing
Wheels has a .645 OPSa vs. righties
Chadford has a .576 OPSa vs. righties
That is over a long enough timeline to smooth variation as well as at the MAJOR LEAGUE level. Cost advantage is one argument that you could make, but I would rather rely on the known commodity that is already under contract than trade away both of these guys and rely on a AAAA pitcher with declining K/BB rates. Just my 2 cents.
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 17, 2008 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Wheeler!!!
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on Dec 17, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If his flyball rate is that high
Then I’d be willing to bet that the OPS is that low due to a flukey low HRA/FB rate. Too busy to look it up at the moment, but that would point to regression if true.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on Dec 17, 2008 7:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because we need a new bouncer to replace Gomes in the brawlfense
Britton is a gigantic tubbalard
by Jason Collette on Dec 17, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe because
those numbers represent his very limited major league experience. His minor league stats are far more impressive, particularly as to strikeouts which are generally near or better than 1 per inning. And also that in his only reasonably extended time in the majors, his K rate (6.87) was far better than his major league totals which encompass very short time up and inconsistent usage.
by bobr on Dec 17, 2008 3:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Great Graph
I agree with some of the others above. The data certainly points towards Reyes being a fantastic option for us.
Blake
USF--Class of '09
by usfraysfan on Dec 17, 2008 1:55 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I have to question any data that makes Casey Fossum look like a good pitcher
I think ground ball % is somewhat overrated. It is very important for relievers who we expect to come in with runners on base because of the 3 run bomb and sac flies, but for set up guys we expect to start innings k/9 and bb/9 seem much more important. Guys who come in and throw gas for one inning (e.g. Grant Balfour) are always going to have a bad ground ball % but because hitters are behind his fastball they hit a lot of pop flies which are easy outs.
If we keep Bradford I dont see the need to get another reliever just because he can get ground balls. GB% is not that important in a setup guy which is what we need.
by Devil Ray on Dec 17, 2008 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
The best pitchers in baseball are generally in that quadrant.
here’s the Baseball Analysts article about it.
by rglass44 on Dec 17, 2008 4:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
How does Scott Elarton still have a job?
Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.
~George Costanza~
by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 17, 2008 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I do believe relievers can post significantly below-average HR/FB rates.
Which is why Wheeler’s a 3.75 to 4.00 guy going forward instead of a 4.25 guy.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Dec 17, 2008 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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