Evaluating Pat Burrell

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 17, 2008 7:32 PM EST

Pat Burrell is playing the role of the forgotten thus far this off-season. An awful defender, Burrell is almost certainly destined for a designated hitter role, leaving him with only a few options beyond Cincinnati and other unaware NL teams. Here's what we know about Burrell:

- 32 years old
- Lowest wOBA since 2004
- Unlucky BABIP
- Slightly down walk rates
- Increased ISO
- Even park adjusted wOBA (wOBA*) has him well above average.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Burrell is a player who actually gains value by moving to hitting full time. Here's how Burrell rated out in the notable defensive metrics:

Chone: -14
UZR: -14.7
PMR: -19.89
+/-: -16 (-20 plays, * 0.8 for runs)

That's an average of -16.15 runs, combine that with the positional adjustment of -7.5 and you're looking at his offensive value being zapped. At DH Burell gets penalized -17.5 runs, having him gain a half of a win in value for simply tucking his glove in a dark corner.

Marcels has Burrell continuing his slide (mostly age related) and slipping to .369 wOBA, or 18.7 offensive runs above average in 582 plate appearances. That makes him worth between 1.8 and 2 WAR. If Burrell can find a way into 645 plate appearances like 2008, raise those expectations to 2-2.2. That suggests Burrell should be worth between 9 to 11 million.

There are some cons to Burrell and those are associated with his age and potential for a quick collapse. If the Rays can somehow hook Burrell on a one or two season deal, it's likely worth their time, anything more than an option third season and things get a little sticky.

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Comments

I like Burrell

but as you said, definately on a 1-2 year deal. I would perfer 2 with a team option on a third year. Of all the FA options, Dunn and Bradley are the only two players I would consider signing for more than 2 years. Giambi and Abreu should be 1-2 year deals as well.

Burrell would be nice because he would add an immediate LHOPS machine in the middle of the order. I have always loved his power, but question every other aspect of his game.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 17, 2008 8:39 PM EST reply actions

Wouldn't mind him at all

but he is 4th on my list

If all of the following happens, give me Burrell

Bradley decides he can play the field all year
Giambi wants too much money or years
Dunn gets overpaid by the Nationals

If those 3 happen, give me Burrell please

by joeybw on Dec 17, 2008 8:57 PM EST reply actions

I like him

Just probably not as much as he thinks he’s worth. Same goes for Abreu if he thinks he’s getting $14M per.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 17, 2008 9:26 PM EST reply actions

Dreaming-or perhaps ready for the loony bin

but my solution is Justin Upton. If it takes some combination of players that include Crawford, one of our top pitching prospects or even Kazmir, if Upton is the centerpiece of the return, I will be happy (and amazed of course). Not both Crawford and Kazmir, but either plus perhaps more. Upton becomes the right fielder; Joyce is in LF (if Crawford goes) and Aybar is the DH. We get the role player in Joyce and the impact hitter in Upton. And maybe it’s really both Uptons if it eases the way to an extension.

by bobr on Dec 17, 2008 10:59 PM EST reply actions

This would bring me great joy. I mean, I would be the happiest boy in the world!

It would take an absolutely stunningly huge package to get him, but I think something like CC, Davis/Hellickson, Brignac(to fill their 2B void, Felipe Lopez isn’t the answer) and another lesser prospect for J-Up. That’s a ton to give up, but he’s an absolutely amazing player. I dunno if the logistics work, but I’d give up a ton for him. He’s going to be better than his brother. It would make our outfield absolutely sick.

Also, depending on how everything checks out, Rocco could have just come back into play. If the reports really are as positive as they sound, he could make himself some money by holding out until February and showing he’s healthy and can go through workouts without fatigue.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Dec 17, 2008 11:18 PM EST up reply actions

They would demand Price

I can’t imagine a scenario where the D’Backs would trade Upton without getting Price in return. Maybe if they get Shields and a good prospect or two, but that’s about it.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 17, 2008 11:39 PM EST up reply actions

Well what if they got Hellickson, Davis and say Brignac?

Think we would get Upton without losing Price?

I just really want the Upton family reunion in our OF

by joeybw on Dec 18, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions

No. They'd want Price. And I wouldn't blame them.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 18, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions

Eh, I doubt they would even discuss him anyway

so I guess it doesn’t matter.

by joeybw on Dec 18, 2008 10:17 AM EST up reply actions

My favorite thing about Burrell:

2001 155
2002 157
2003 146
2004 127
2005 154
2006 144
2007 155
2008 157

In the last 8 years, he has played in over 120 games every year, over 140 every year save one, and over 150 five of the eight years. This is while playing the OF, and without the DH for “rest” days.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2008 10:11 AM EST reply actions

The only time he sat is when he went into prolonged slumps.

Dude is very streaky, but with him it is hard to find when that slump will come. Guys like Aubrey could always be counted on to start off garbage and then warm up with the temp. Looks like for his career June is his worst month. He is tough to predict in many ways such as his road OPS in 08 was .964, much better than his home, but in 07 his home OPS was 1.016, much better than his road. Another thing is
his OPS seems to be not tied to his BABIP, witness

Year OPS/BABIP

2005 .892/.336
2006 .890/.294
2007 .902/.276
2008 .875/.271

I think what it comes down to is dude flat out mashes. He is such a tough out for lefties/righties, home/away, first-half/second-half, etc… that I fully endorse him as the pick. Seems like he hasn’t been trumpeted up as much so maybe we can get him locked in before Tex sets the market, but if not I think we would end up spending more if we try to get him later. I didn’t want to get locked in on a guy because of the options, but Burrell fills our need perfectly, and the only concerns I have is that he would either A) destroy a catwalk, possibly collapsing the dome, or B) having to sit in the World Series. If A happens are season is over, and if B happens I’m pretty psyched about life.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 18, 2008 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

good endorsement

You think he can be compared to Soriano in the streaky sense? Because a guy like that can really carry a team for a couple of weeks and its great, if you can put up with the previous months mendoza line batting average.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 18, 2008 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

He's great when he wears his contacts.

by rglass44 on Dec 18, 2008 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think anyone can be compared to Soriano

Dude is a cartoon. I am putting together some stuff to see just how interesting Sori is. If it looks reasonable I will do the same for Burrell RE: Streakiness

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 18, 2008 11:59 AM EST up reply actions

Here are his OPS by 10 game intervals with the last set being 9 games, also this is by games played he did miss some games

0.554
0.586
1.674
0.690
0.959
1.029
0.957
0.692
0.840
1.204
0.433

Slow start with a few bad weeks in there. I will do this more extensively as time permits.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 18, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions

great stats thanks for running them

Slow start is understandable with weather/adjusting to pitchers etc…. but still some very discernible peaks and valleys, interesting stuff.

IF only Harry Carey could be arounde for Kosuke.

by CubFanRaysaddict on Dec 18, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions

And here is Burrell's OPS by 10 game intervals with the last one being shortened.

1.287
1.156
0.993
0.671
0.833
1.002
1.360
0.558
1.136
0.952
0.806
0.510
0.711
0.394
0.723
0.769

Kind of ran out of the last 50 games.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 18, 2008 2:23 PM EST up reply actions

Even more interesting is that when I ran a best fit line

with OPS as the dependent variable and K:BB as the independent variable Soriano was actually positive. I haven’t tested for significance yet, but for Soriano the coefficient was .1458 (excluding the 7th interval when he had 10 k’s and 0 BB’s), for Burrell it was -.1183, and for Beej it was -.0045. The last 2 is what you would expect. Everytime the K:BB ratio for Burrell increases by 1 his OPS should drop by .118. For BJ it was less influential. When his ratio increases by 1 his OPS drops by .005, roughly. Soriano in 2007 haed a -.0139 which would seem intuitive, but I think that backs up the cartoonish qualities of him that when he is running hot he’s almost better off not taking pitches of working counts.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 18, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

One thing I want to make sure isn't lost in the shuffle.

DH’s deserve a large penalty when calculating their total value and potential salary. But that doesn’t make them any less talented as hitters. RJ pointed out that Burrell’s about +18 runs above average, which is pretty darn sweet. He’s a beast with the bat. So while calling him a 2 WAR player sounds less than exciting, having him hit in the lineup would be awesome. And he’d be significant better than some internal option like Willie Aybar, who might become a decent hitter for an OF or 3B, but who’s bat doesn’t hold water at DH.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 18, 2008 4:01 PM EST reply actions

I was wondering when someone would point this out thanks Sky

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 18, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions

This is when it makes sense to point out that EVERY DH has the same defensive penalty.

So, even Pujols used as a DH (would be stupid) is “only” about a 5-6 WAR player rather than a 9-10 WAR player.

It is an inefficient use of resources to use a capable defender in the DH spot, or vice-versa. You have to use the DH (unless you want Price flailing away at fastballs), so your best bet is to invest as much as possible into the bat. The more negative the glove the better in a sense, although that hurts roster flexibility.

by rglass44 on Dec 19, 2008 10:06 AM EST up reply actions