Taking each of our targeted free agents in 5-game intervals I was able to put together this chart...

Taking each of our targeted free agents in 5-game intervals I was able to put together this chart showing each players average OPS and then +/- one standard deviation. The attempt was to see if streakiness could be isolated. If streakiness can be identified it may help us in deciding on whether we want a guy that will consistently hit for a high OPS, or whether we would prefer a guy that is more prone to slumps, but has the potential to carry the team over short periods. My data can be viewed at

I highly recommend viewing the above link as it is chock full of information. The data is from 2006-08, courtesy of gamelogs @ baseball-reference.com. Also, you will see a row for "LINEST". This is something I want to do a broader analysis on as time permits. It is a regression with OPS as the dependent variable and K:BB as the independent variable. Again, this data is broken down by five game intervals in an attempt to see how a player tends to perform over short periods. Please make suggestions for improvement or any applicable comments.

11 months ago Sandy Kazmir 6 comments 0 recs |

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The link to the data did not format so click below

LINK

Also, to see a larger version of the chart click below

LINK

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 19, 2008 12:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What I mean to say is that the bigger version is

HERE

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 19, 2008 1:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SO Giambi is the rabbit and Abreu is the tortoise?

by rglass44 on Dec 19, 2008 1:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not quite sure what this means

Does this mean Abreu is the most consistent and Giambi is the most streaky?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 19, 2008 4:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's how I would interpret it, but

you have the data and the chart and I was hoping to get some feedback before I extend this to a more full-blown study. I can e-mail you the workbook if you are interested I just didn’t want to upload it as it is pretty big and time consuming.

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 19, 2008 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gotcha

Yeah, this was just a quick look. I don’t think it necessarily means anyone is streakier than the others, just that the highs are higher and the lows are lower. I do think you can vouch for consistency this way, but not really so much for inconsistency. For example, Giambi’s average is the highest of the four, but he had the lowest OPS of the four (I think). That means more often than not he was below that average in the 5-day periods. It might also be useful to have another line for OPS, so you can see whether their numbers were artificially inflated by a hot streak or artificially depressed by a cold streak.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 19, 2008 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs