I feel like Talbot is pretty much a lock to be a league-average reliever or a league-average #4 (i.e. an ERA+ around 90 as a starter), which is still useful, while I feel like Jaso’s upside is still much higher. However, if Jaso can’t stick at catcher, then Talbot is clearly more valuable in my mind. Jaso’s just not a good enough hitter to stick at 1B or DH long-term, and from what little I’ve seen he’s not a good enough defender to start at catcher full-time. Supposedly his defense keeps improving from year to year, so I rated Jaso ahead of Talbot based on the presumption that he’ll get to the point where his defense is passable for a decent hitting catcher. Otherwise, he probably goes a fair amount down the list.

I think that’s more likely than not. We’ll have to see how well his stuff comes back though. He was the top HS pitcher after his junior year, but then his velocity dropped as a senior. Other recent draftees who were the top HS pitcher as a junior then had problems and their stock dropped have turned out to be pretty decent (Nick Adenhart, Jordan Walden, etc.)

My take is nice defender, not enough bat to play 1B.

but what was his major league stats this season? SSS, I know but he simply didn’t look good out there.

But I mostly agree. If he can turn into a good enough defensive catcher, he’ll probably be a better hitter than most catchers out there. His upside is still as a Michey Tettleton type, but there’s still a very high probability he ends up in Matt LeCroy land. LeCroy is certainly the player he most reminds me of, unfortunately. If he was a decent defender, he’d probably be my #5 though.