Rays Sign Joe Nelson
Reliever Joe Nelson is a Tampa Bay Ray.
On Wednesday, the right-hander, whom the Marlins non-tendered, agreed to terms on a one-year deal for $1.3 million.
Nelson was contacted by 20 teams after the Marlins parted company with the 34-year-old reliever, who turned in his best major league season in 2008.
Nelson at 1.3 million is an excellent deal for the Rays. He went 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA(3.97 tRA*) with the Marlins last year and had an excellent k/9 of 10.0(11.6% SwStr). He split evenly on his fb/gb% around 38% each. He had an FIP of 3.45 last year and while projections have him around 4.0 this year, it is still a good deal. He's 34 years old and works primarily off a fastball/"vulcan"changeup combo.
Career OPS against splits RH .768 LH .634
More from The Heater
Nelson truly could not be more excited, saying: "It's been a fabulous Christmas Eve for us. I'm very happy to be staying in the state of Florida and I'm extremely happy to be playing for the defending AL champs, and I hope I can be a good addition to an already great bullpen."
With three kids age 5 and under, Nelson said it was important for him and his wife, Teresa Cortinas, to play close to home. Plus, Teresa is a USF med school graduate, so she is excited about getting back to the Tampa Bay area as well. "The overall fit was great. It really couldn't have worked out any better,'' Nelson said.
The Marlins offered Nelson 650k which is 1/2 of what he will receive from the Rays. Even at 1.3, the Rays signed Nelson for below market value.
From Fangraphs
Nelson is about +3 runs above replacement. Multiply that by an LI in the vicinity of 1.20-1.45 and he could be worth anywhere from +3 to +6 runs above replacement. Assuming the going rate of $5 mil/win, Nelson, at fair market value, would sign for 1-yr/$2.5 mil, essentially the same contract recently inked by Chan Ho Park.
Comments
So our pen if the season started today
Grant Balfour
JP Howell
Chad Bradford
Dan Wheeler
Joe Nelson
Troy Percival
Jeff Niemann
If only Ohman or Rhino could replace Percy now…..
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on
Dec 24, 2008 4:09 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
In this pen,
Who’s our LOOGY?
Also, what’s happening with Hammel? I’m figuring Niemann will start in the pen too, but we’ve got to deal Hammel or something.
"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige
by Steve Slowinski on
Dec 24, 2008 4:17 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well
As for loogy, either we get another leftie or just use Nelson, he handles lefties well
I don’t know about Hammel, wouldn’t even care if he gets DFA’d, Niemann is easily a improvement.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on
Dec 24, 2008 4:20 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Hammel
I’m not quite as low on him. I think hes fine as a long man as I think Niemann can command some value in return in a trade. A trade for Matt Antonelli and some cash (500k or so)?
by Navi's_Navy on
Dec 24, 2008 4:46 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
The Pads are still high on Antonelli
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Dec 24, 2008 5:45 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
RHEINECKER.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on
Dec 24, 2008 4:25 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Could be awesome
if it is a really good lefty reliever and the trade involved is Wheeler.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on
Dec 24, 2008 5:55 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Hey Tommy, thanks for mooching my comment in the fanpost. :p
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on
Dec 24, 2008 4:20 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Shouldn't you be petting a cat or something
by Tommy Rancel on
Dec 24, 2008 4:22 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Kitty is outside.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on
Dec 24, 2008 4:22 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Good signing.
Now trade Wheeler. Now.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on
Dec 24, 2008 4:26 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Agreed
Bullpen is now officially overcrowded, and Wheeler and Nelson are very similar.
Bullpen candidates:
Balfour
Howell
Nelson
Percival
Niemann
Bradford
Hammel
Salas
Rodriguez
I guess the last three are relatively fungible, but it’s annoying when they’re better and cheaper than a couple of the guys who are locks.
Vogt early, Vogt often.
by Brickhaus on
Dec 24, 2008 4:39 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
You forgot Thayer and Talbot.
who are also relatively fungible, but probably better/cheaper than certain locks.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on
Dec 24, 2008 4:43 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
good signing i think
Rays saw a guy they wanted that was contacted by nearly 20 teams and went up and got him
by RayOfLight on
Dec 24, 2008 4:26 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Get ready to hear "vulcan change-up" over and over.
by Tommy Rancel on
Dec 24, 2008 4:39 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm forever gonna call him Spock.
Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.
by P Brady on
Dec 24, 2008 4:57 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Now sign Milton Bradley or Pat Bat and make my Christmas complete!
by floridaroar on
Dec 24, 2008 5:44 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
This is how you Ball on a budget
here is to Joe Nelson be as valuable o the Rays as AJ Burnett is to the Yanks
by Dbullsfan on
Dec 24, 2008 5:48 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
That would require a massive DL stint on AJ's part.
I can’t really wish for that… but … err… hope for ineffectivity?
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
by Blicks on
Dec 24, 2008 6:08 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I remember when AJ left the Marlins
He is a real asshole and he only makes 30 or more starts when he is up for contract.
Nothing serious, but I think he is one guy you can hope for a minor injury to.
Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart
by joeybw on
Dec 24, 2008 6:10 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Let's put this one down as: highly, highly, highly unlikely.
Nelson can pitch in 75 innings with a 1 FIP and only be worth 3.1 WAR.
Burnett can pitch in 150 innings with a 4 FIP and be worth 3 WAR.
by R.J. Anderson on
Dec 24, 2008 8:53 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
The more impressive thing
is that it’s a one year deal. As we’re finding out with Percy/Wheeler/Miller, sometimes anything more than one year becomes a bother soon after.
by Ben Tumbling on
Dec 24, 2008 5:57 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
Statcorner lists WAR (no leverageg) on their player pages, I just found out.
http://statcorner.com/pitcherRP.php?id=406874&team=FLO&year=2008&leag=N_L
.8 WAR last year. His tRA*’s are pretty poor the three years before 2008, but he’s probably a half win guy. Don’t see him getting/deserving too high of a leverage, though. Maybe 1.25ish.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Dec 24, 2008 8:19 PM EST
reply
actions
0 recs
At .8 he would've been the 3rd best RP on the Rays behind JP and Balfour.
I’d take that especially given the fact that he makes about 2 mil less than Wheeler who was worth .4 last year and .2 in 07.
by Tommy Rancel on
Dec 24, 2008 8:27 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Sure, third best, but is the difference between .8 and .5 or .2 all that much?
I agree it’s a nice price, but it’s just another example of how bullpen depth is extremely overrated. A top guy like Balfour or Mo can be 2 WAR without leverage and 3.5 to 4.0 WAR with leverage.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on
Dec 25, 2008 10:06 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
They must've added that today.
Handy!
by R.J. Anderson on
Dec 24, 2008 8:41 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
R.J....
I can’t seem to figure out what WAR stands for…
B Rad the Ray Fan
www.we-use-more-than-one-stat-here.com
by B Ray on
Dec 24, 2008 11:01 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Thanks! I know what that is; I just never put it together.
B Rad the Ray Fan
www.we-use-more-than-one-stat-here.com
by B Ray on
Dec 25, 2008 6:44 PM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs
WAR
what is it good for?
Absolutely nothing
Say it again
by Jason Collette on
Dec 25, 2008 10:28 AM EST
up
reply
actions
0 recs












