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Rays Sign Joe Nelson

Miami Herald

Reliever Joe Nelson is a Tampa Bay Ray.

           On Wednesday, the right-hander, whom the Marlins non-tendered, agreed to terms on a one-year deal for $1.3 million.

           Nelson was contacted by 20 teams after the Marlins parted company with the 34-year-old reliever, who turned in his best major league season in 2008.

Nelson at 1.3 million is an excellent deal for the Rays. He went 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA(3.97 tRA*) with the Marlins last year and had an excellent k/9 of 10.0(11.6% SwStr). He split evenly on his fb/gb% around 38% each. He had an FIP of 3.45 last year and while projections have him around 4.0 this year, it is still a good deal. He's 34 years old and works primarily off a fastball/"vulcan"changeup combo.

Career OPS against splits RH .768 LH .634

More from The Heater

Nelson truly could not be more excited, saying: "It's been a fabulous Christmas Eve for us. I'm very happy to be staying in the state of Florida and I'm extremely happy to be playing for the defending AL champs, and I hope I can be a good addition to an already great bullpen."


With three kids age 5 and under, Nelson said it was important for him and his wife, Teresa Cortinas, to play close to home. Plus, Teresa is a USF med school graduate, so she is excited about getting back to the Tampa Bay area as well. "The overall fit was great. It really couldn't have worked out any better,'' Nelson said.

The Marlins offered Nelson 650k which is 1/2 of what he will receive from the Rays. Even at 1.3, the Rays signed Nelson for below market value.

From Fangraphs 

Nelson is about +3 runs above replacement. Multiply that by an LI in the vicinity of 1.20-1.45 and he could be worth anywhere from +3 to +6 runs above replacement. Assuming the going rate of $5 mil/win, Nelson, at fair market value, would sign for 1-yr/$2.5 mil, essentially the same contract recently inked by Chan Ho Park.

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So our pen if the season started today

Grant Balfour
JP Howell
Chad Bradford
Dan Wheeler
Joe Nelson
Troy Percival
Jeff Niemann

If only Ohman or Rhino could replace Percy now…..

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 24, 2008 4:09 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

In this pen,

Who’s our LOOGY?

Also, what’s happening with Hammel? I’m figuring Niemann will start in the pen too, but we’ve got to deal Hammel or something.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 24, 2008 4:17 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well

As for loogy, either we get another leftie or just use Nelson, he handles lefties well

I don’t know about Hammel, wouldn’t even care if he gets DFA’d, Niemann is easily a improvement.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 24, 2008 4:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hammel

I’m not quite as low on him. I think hes fine as a long man as I think Niemann can command some value in return in a trade. A trade for Matt Antonelli and some cash (500k or so)?

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 24, 2008 4:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RHEINECKER.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Dec 24, 2008 4:25 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Could be awesome

if it is a really good lefty reliever and the trade involved is Wheeler.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 24, 2008 5:55 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good signing.

Now trade Wheeler. Now.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Dec 24, 2008 4:26 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

Bullpen is now officially overcrowded, and Wheeler and Nelson are very similar.

Bullpen candidates:
Balfour
Howell
Nelson
Percival
Niemann
Bradford
Hammel
Salas
Rodriguez

I guess the last three are relatively fungible, but it’s annoying when they’re better and cheaper than a couple of the guys who are locks.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 24, 2008 4:39 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You forgot Thayer and Talbot.

who are also relatively fungible, but probably better/cheaper than certain locks.

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Dec 24, 2008 4:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good signing i think

Rays saw a guy they wanted that was contacted by nearly 20 teams and went up and got him

by RayOfLight on Dec 24, 2008 4:26 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

this

I wouldn’t mind Rhino or Ohman or any good lefty but don’t know where he would fit in anyway.

BRADLEY PLEASE

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 24, 2008 5:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This is how you Ball on a budget

here is to Joe Nelson be as valuable o the Rays as AJ Burnett is to the Yanks

by Dbullsfan on Dec 24, 2008 5:48 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That would require a massive DL stint on AJ's part.

I can’t really wish for that… but … err… hope for ineffectivity?

"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."

by Blicks on Dec 24, 2008 6:08 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I remember when AJ left the Marlins

He is a real asshole and he only makes 30 or more starts when he is up for contract.

Nothing serious, but I think he is one guy you can hope for a minor injury to.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 24, 2008 6:10 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let's put this one down as: highly, highly, highly unlikely.

Nelson can pitch in 75 innings with a 1 FIP and only be worth 3.1 WAR.
Burnett can pitch in 150 innings with a 4 FIP and be worth 3 WAR.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 24, 2008 8:53 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The more impressive thing

is that it’s a one year deal. As we’re finding out with Percy/Wheeler/Miller, sometimes anything more than one year becomes a bother soon after.

by Ben Tumbling on Dec 24, 2008 5:57 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Statcorner lists WAR (no leverageg) on their player pages, I just found out.

http://statcorner.com/pitcherRP.php?id=406874&team=FLO&year=2008&leag=N_L

.8 WAR last year. His tRA*’s are pretty poor the three years before 2008, but he’s probably a half win guy. Don’t see him getting/deserving too high of a leverage, though. Maybe 1.25ish.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 24, 2008 8:19 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

At .8 he would've been the 3rd best RP on the Rays behind JP and Balfour.

I’d take that especially given the fact that he makes about 2 mil less than Wheeler who was worth .4 last year and .2 in 07.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 24, 2008 8:27 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sure, third best, but is the difference between .8 and .5 or .2 all that much?

I agree it’s a nice price, but it’s just another example of how bullpen depth is extremely overrated. A top guy like Balfour or Mo can be 2 WAR without leverage and 3.5 to 4.0 WAR with leverage.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 25, 2008 10:06 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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