Post Christmas Thoughts on Troy Percival

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 26, 2008 11:58 AM EST

I hope everyone had a nice Christmas, I originally planned to do a bullpen piece today, but instead I'm going to focus solely on Troy Percival.

Far be it for me to impugn Percival's decision to go through with surgery, the simple fact is Percival's bulldoggish demeanor ultimately cost the Rays. Prior to his first disabled list stint (May 29th - strained left hamstring) Percival pitched excellently, upon each subsequent return Percival's performances seemed to decline. Whether his was simply the wear on an older pitcher or someone returning before their body is optimal is up for speculation, here's what we do know:

Percival made trips to the DL for:
Strained left hamstring (May 29th)
Left hamstring strain (July 1st)
Cartilage damage, right knee (August 15th)

These DL stints lasted:
May 29th - June 13th
July 1st - July 20th
August 15th - September 2nd

For those not counting:
First stint: 16 days
Second stint: 20 days
Third stint: 20 days

The average span certainly doesn't seem to suggest that Percival was rushing back, however simply replying on the days missed is a flawed assumption for obvious reasons (no pitcher is alike, varying injuries, varying degrees, ect.) what is not up for debate is the notion that Percival got worse as the season went on. Here are his splits based on DL stints.

Timeframe	wOBA
Pre DL1	0.207
Pre DL2	0.379
Pre DL3	0.326
Post DL	0.423

Now separated into sets of 10.

Timeframe	wOBA
G1-G10	0.087
G11-G20	0.308
G21-G30	0.329
G31-G40	0.324
G41-G50	0.419

Now, I haven't went back and looked at PitchFx data to see if something is off (velocity, iffy control, ect) but healthy pitchers generally don't collapse like that. He was either physically or mentally unfit -- since it's Percival, we can assume the latter is always true, and therefore not much of an issue either way.

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Comments

Two Words: "GLUE FACTORY"

by John 63 on Dec 26, 2008 1:41 PM EST reply actions

On a side note

How about trading Chad Bradford to Detroit for Marcus Thames? Seems like a good fit for both sides. Detroit could use the bullpen arm and can afford his salary, the Rays could use a cheap RH power hitting corner OF to counter Joyce.

If we could then turnaround and flip Gabe Gross somewhere for a prospect then Thames would team with Perez + whatever FA DH we sign and they would be our 3 reserve OFers.

starting 8 (Burrell/Bradley included), + Perez, Aybar, Zobrist, Thames, Riggans

Makes more sense to have the righty bat of Thames than Gross off the bench, plus we save money and dont really downgrade any part of our roster

by Rays4242 on Dec 26, 2008 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

sry meant starting *9

by Rays4242 on Dec 26, 2008 2:19 PM EST up reply actions

Sounds like Mick

Typical Glue Factory comment! Have you seen any horses there “John”? You retiring anyone to stud lately?:)

Joe

by joedobr on Dec 26, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions

If Percival comes back...

I think Maddon needs to stick to the “closer by committee” design he used in the last month or so of the season, alternating pitchers to get the best matchups. Percival can have his spot in that group, but shouldn’t be “the closer”. The role shouldn’t hurt him, as he’s likely on his last contract anyhow.

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Dec 26, 2008 2:54 PM EST reply actions