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Outliers

First of, Happy Holidays to everyone. 

Malcom Gladwell's new book "Outliers: The Story of Success" shows us how an "outlier" can have a profound inpact on why people become successful.  Here's one example from an ESPN.com Page2 interview with Gladwell:

For example: Bill Gates, successful because he's a genius? Yes, but also because he had access to a powerful mainframe computer at a time (1968) when few others did. This enabled him to build his programming skills for thousands of hours before the personal computer, upon which his initial success with MS-DOS was built, became widely available. So Gates isn't just a genius and a good businessman. He was also lucky, took advantage of unusually available resources, and then proceeded to work like mad.

 

You're probably asking what that has to do with sports and baseball.  I'll tell you. 

 Gladwell talks about the eligibility cutoff for age-class hockey programs in Canada is Jan. 1st.  We all know how serious Canada takes it's hockey, so coaches start funneling the best hockey players into the best programs, where they get better coaching, better training at an early age, usually 8 or 9.  But the best players are 8 or 9 are normally the oldest, and at that age 10 or so extra months of maturity makes a big difference.  Those older kids get more attention, basically giving them a giant leg up on the rest of the children.  There are many many more NHL players born in Jan-March than the other months.  The same applies for baseball.

The cutoff date for most baseball leagues in America is July 31st, which results in more major league players being born in August than any other month.  The book gives us the data; Among Americans playing in the majors 505 were born in August, with only 313 born in July.  That made me curious, so I went and looked at the Rays roster.  I included players from last season(Johnson is Dan Johnson), as well as Matt Joyce and Jake McGee.

Name Date
Joyce Aug 3rd
Crawford Aug 5th
Hinske Aug 5th
McGee Aug 6th
Percival Aug 9th
Johnson Aug 10th
Birkins Aug 11th
Upton Aug 21st
Price Aug 26th

Nine players, and seven that contributed to last year's team.  That's more than the Yankees and Red Sox combined(Yankees had 2, Red Sox 3), though the Rays do have more American born players than those two. 

I'm not suggesting the Rays won the AL East and the American League Championship because of this, and no great breakthrough is going to be made of that data, I just thought it was interesting.

1 recs  |  Comment 24 comments |

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Not to be an ass or anything

but i think only certain people are allowed to post on the main page.

by BrendanHarrisLives on Dec 26, 2008 2:30 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

oops, sorry

Well, about your post then. I think it is hard to gauge the amount of training and how it helps a player later on. There were stories about how Ichiro trained with shovels and tires and whatnot. A lot of players in America could have gone to supplemental training leagues, etc to make themselves better. But it is true that the Rays have a lot of August born American players.

by BrendanHarrisLives on Dec 26, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

You’re assuming that there are supplemental training leagues available to every child. Often times that is not the case. Children that are the best at such a young age are normally the older ones, even if that age gap is only a couple of months. Those kids get the best coaching, best training, etc which makes them better at the next level, and so on. The same thing applies when you talk about schooling and the cut off dates there.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 26, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Very interesting theory, but...

I’m not sure that I follow completely. So you are saying that most youth league cutoff dates are July 31, making kids born in August the oldest, and kids born in July the youngest of their age group?

That makes sense, since my b-day is at the end of May and I was always one of the younger kids at my age cutoff. Typically, I would play with kids who were in my grade and at most 10-11 months older than me. The biggest age differential in Little League Baseball is 2 years when you reach the 11-12, then 13-14, then 15-16 year old divisions. So at some age divisions I would be 2 years younger than half of the kids, 1 school grade behind, and only a few months younger than the other half of the kids who were in my grade.

That being said, I played in a highly cometitive little league (Citrus Park LL the one that represented Tampa in the LLWS) and never saw a trend where the kids born in August were better than the kids born only a few months later. It never worked out that way in my LL growing up, and I dont see how kids born within 12 months of eachother are effected one bit by what month their b-day falls into growing up. God given talent is what seperates them. ANything more than 12 months and there is defenite physical maturity that can trump natural ability, but I dont know that I buy this age cutoff thing for kids within 12 months of eachother

very interesting to consider though, but if there is any correlation between the month MLB players were born and LL cutoff dates I would initially have to say it is coincedental unless there is more of a history to this correlation. If its something thats been a trend in baseball for 20 years, than I might change my stance.

by Rays4242 on Dec 26, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I dont see how kids born within 12 months of eachother are effected one bit by what month their b-day falls into growing up.

When you’re in the 8-9 year old age range that 10 or 12 months is a HUGE gap of time in maturity. The book lists the roster of the two best junior hockey teams in Canada. You might as well have told the kids born in the last half of the year to go home. It was FULL of January-March birthdays. That’s not a coincidence. The studies have been going on since the 80s.

God given ability can only produce so much.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 27, 2008 1:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

What do you believe is the purpose of age division in youth sports?

The whole reason for having age divisions created in youth sports, is so that you can keep kids who are 2-3 years older from stealing away from a younger, talented kids development.

 A 12 month time frame isn’t enough that there will be a marked difference in physical development based on age more than it would be because of genetics. That’s why youth leagues are divided that way, just so that age is not a discriminating factor. If 10 year olds had to play with 13 year olds, there would be obvious preferential treatment to the 13 year olds because 99% of the time that age gap is going to give an insurmountable physical advantage to the 13 year old

Where do genetics factor into this theory? How do you account for kids of the same age group growing at different rates? My biggest hurdle understanding all this is that this theory assumes that a kid who is 12 years and 10 months old will be bigger than a kid 12 years and 1 month old when biologically our bodies don’t grow on any set schedule. Its just as likely the 12 year 1 month od will be physically more mature.

In fact, in youth league football kids are divided by both age and weight, specifically because age divisions cant account for different growth rates among children

by Rays4242 on Dec 27, 2008 4:38 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Myself, no Gladwell, is saying it’s a perfect theory. But when you’re 8 and 9, that 10 month age gap IS significant and you can’t tell me otherwise. Bigger kids get special treatment, which just perpetuates itself over time.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 27, 2008 10:55 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but I am telling you different, genetics are a bigger determining factor in the speed of which a kid grows at that age

Also, bigger kids dont get special treatment if they arent any good

Do you have any statistics for the last several years for this data?

Ive just never seen a kid with talent, no matter his size, get less treatment than a kid who is bigegr than them regardless of what talent the bigger kid has. I dont know if you noticed, but baseball isnt a physically demanding sport anyways nor is it a sport where supreme athleticism make syou a good player (lilke in football and basketball). On top of that Ive never seen any evidence through personal experience where the bigger kid in the same age division is necessariyl going to be older rather than just being a faster grower.

I dont see how it could be a perfect theory, when there are so many conclusions that are being drawn without real evidence to support it.

by Rays4242 on Dec 29, 2008 9:05 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I’m aware that genetics aer a bigger factor in the speed in which a kid grows. I’m pretty sure they’re not on HGH at 8 years old.

How can you say there is no real evidence? So you’re saying that it’s a coincidence every year the best junior hockey teams in Canada are FILLED with kids born in January, some February and some March, with basically NONE born from July on? That it’s just pure chance? Those studies have been going on since the 80s. That’s not just dumb luck.

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 29, 2008 4:09 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Amazing what a google search will turn up...

Of course this conversation has been had and researched by others.

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/

Seems to be a pretty convincing argument.

by tallyray on Dec 29, 2008 7:43 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

We know that more players were born in August

I’m trying to see if there’s any correlation between August birthdays and team success

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 29, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I think

Bill Gates’ “genius/unusually available resources” was being born to rich parents, therefore the Ivy League education, which he dropped, and then the parents bought him MS-DOS. Great businessman, but come on, born on third base. But he seems like a nice guy. I gather the key is to be born on third base in August?

Raysprospects.com

by DAM on Dec 26, 2008 6:35 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

How am I wrong about Bill Gates?

I’m not trying to be difficult. He didn’t program MS-DOS, or anything else of importance that I’m aware of. He certainly turned it into Microsoft and becoming the world’s richest man, but that’s not necessarily genius. Timing, luck, hard work, and hiring good people made that happen. Buy MS-DOS in 1950, or 2008, not the world’s richest man. I have no issues with the guy, not an anti-Windows/Microsoft person. I wish more wealthy people supported charitable causes the way he and his wife do. But I disagree with the tone of the quote that he somehow ‘created’ MS-DOS through genius and access to a mainframe. That’s all. And I’m not sure what breaks he received from his middle/high schools, were they high tech (for the 60’s) or something?

Raysprospects.com

by DAM on Dec 29, 2008 9:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Great post on a hidden advantage.

This is actually something I bring up often and knew I heard it elsewhere. I’m not sure if it was in the book Freakanomics or on the authors’ blog, but a very similar trend was found regarding premier european soccer players. Here’s the quote from NYTimes article.

Since youth sports are organized by age bracket, teams inevitably have a cutoff birth date. In the European youth soccer leagues, the cutoff date is Dec. 31. So when a coach is assessing two players in the same age bracket, one who happened to have been born in January and the other in December, the player born in January is likely to be bigger, stronger, more mature. Guess which player the coach is more likely to pick? He may be mistaking maturity for ability, but he is making his selection nonetheless. And once chosen, those January-born players are the ones who, year after year, receive the training, the deliberate practice and the feedback — to say nothing of the accompanying self-esteem — that will turn them into elites.

It makes a whole lot of sense. Think of when you played little league, the biggest twelve year olds always got the most attention. These were the kids focused on most and I’m sure their parents were more likely to spend a little more money on them since they show such promise. Of course there are more variables, but birth month seems to be a decent sized factor.

by tallyray on Dec 26, 2008 8:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Think of when you played little league, the biggest twelve year olds always got the most attention

This is VERY true, but the biggest 12 year olds were not necessarily the oldest. In fact there were just as many small, runt 12 year olds that were “older” as there were giant 12 year olds who were on the “younger” end of the age bracket

My best friend growing up’s birthday was the first week of August. He was always the oldest, but he was one of the smallest kids in the league.

Don’t we all know by now that all people grow at different rates as children? Some 12 year olds are built like 14 year olds, and some are built like 9 year olds. So I just cant see a cutoff date mattering when some of these kids are physically 5 years ahead of others simply from genetics.

Another issue I see is, when kids get started in youth leagues they are beginners to the sport from age 5-10. Throughout this time each kid is getting repitition that will be important later on, but god given ability is all kids have in that beginning stage. So how would kids born in July at the beginning of the cutoff already be getting preferential treatment in these vital growing stages of a baseball players career? So by the time these kids reach 12 years old how have they fallen behind the “more mature” 12 year olds in caoching to the point where the older 12 year olds keep getting picked ove rthem? Wouldnt they be on an even playing field from their beginning years of being coached when physical maturity wasnt an issue and each kid was being taught based on their god given talents?

by Rays4242 on Dec 27, 2008 12:35 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It plays out in the long run...

At that young and sensitive of an age I’d imagine any genetic advantage can make a big difference. Of course it isn’t perfect, the well trained player has an advantage over the others that an age gap may not make up. However, when you’re looking at the majority that is equally trained, the group that reaches maturity sooner will also reap those rewards before the other. It isn’t a perfect science but I can see where there can be an advantage.

by tallyray on Dec 27, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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