Community Projections: Carl Crawford

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 26, 2008 3:51 PM EST Comment 38 comments

Coming off a disappointing season, next up Carl Crawford.

Crawford	BA	OBP	SLG	SB
2007	0.315	0.355	0.466	50
2008	0.273	0.319	0.400	25
Marcels	0.292	0.338	0.434	32

As we did for Upton, we'll include SB for fun.

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.303/.339/.444/28

Good rebound year.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 26, 2008 3:52 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.295/.335/.420/35

Brad Ziegler had a scoreless inning streak. Brad Ziegler had not met BJ Upton.

by P Brady on Dec 26, 2008 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.310/.360/.430/35

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 26, 2008 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.295/.343/.451/44

by Peter Bendix on Dec 26, 2008 4:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.295/.340/.440

This is one of the few guys on the team where Marcel should be just as good as CHONE and PECOTA. Only thing it misses on is the drop in league-wide offense.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 26, 2008 4:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.303/.330/.425

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 26, 2008 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

56 sb

Anyway, as I was lying in the puddle, I think I may have found a way for us to get Bonds and Griffey, and we wouldn't have to give up that much.

~George Costanza~

by Sandy Kazmir on Dec 26, 2008 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bounces back a little bit, but I think we’ve already seen his peak. Yes, I know he’s very young, but he’s also been playing on astroturf for the last 6 years, and he’s complained that the new stuff is even harder on his knees than the old stuff. On the other hand, if he’s fully healthy, a breakout year wouldn’t surprise me, simply because he’s getting close to free agency.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 26, 2008 4:15 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.290/.335/.450 w/39 SB's

I think he comes back a bit and regains some of the form from previous years. The main number I’d like to see from him is 150+ in the “G” column.

The truth will set you free, but first it will piss you off.

by pocket8pin on Dec 26, 2008 4:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.310/.348/.460/52

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 26, 2008 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.283 / .320 / .427 with 43 stolen bases

OverTheMonster.com

by Randy Booth on Dec 26, 2008 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.285/.356/.445/32

Improved walk rate!

by Ben Tumbling on Dec 26, 2008 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why

is everyone predicting Crawford wont steal any more bases? Ive seen a handfull of predictions with him stealing 28-35 bases, which is not even close to his career norms. He has averaged 53.6 stolen bases from 03-07. Is it so crazy to just ignore than 2008 happened an expect him to put up numbers closer to his career norm?

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 26, 2008 5:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Let me also say

that I know the turf was giving Crawford’s knees a hard time last year and that it affected his stolen base attempts. However, while we had Floyd clogging the DH position on most days last year, signing a Bradley, Burrell, or Dunn would allow the Rays to give Crawford a couple days off to DH, while still keeping the impact bat in the line up (playing left field). That way his legs would stay fresh on the turf.

Also, I have to say that I think a lot of these numbers are pretty conservative. While its understandable not to expect Crawford to “break out,” I dont see why we should expect him to at least put up his normal numbers. Before last year, Crawford had managed to increase his batting average every year, steal an average of 54 bases, and show signs of budding power. Now because of last year, it seems like most of you are accept 2008 as a sign of things to come. .285 with 32 stolen bases is bouncing back? You gotta be kidding me! If healthy, I completely expect the old Crawford back, batting .300+, .450+ with 45+ SB.

2003-2007 averages: .304/.341/467 14 HR 54 SB

I would at least think everyones numbers would be closer to his career numbers rather than his first down year.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 26, 2008 6:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I could see Crawford breaking out.

But even then I figured a BABIP driven OBP increase and decent slugging.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 26, 2008 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Even then

Would putting up his career average numbers even be considered breaking out? Very few people even came close to his career average numbers, let alone anything that constitutes “breaking out”

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 26, 2008 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously not. I'm talking about a .360/.500 type season though.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 26, 2008 11:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ok yeah I agree with that

To me, .300/.340/.460 is par and a .360/500 season would be a break out. I think last year is more of an anomaly. No one is really prediction a breakout, or par (his career averages) really.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 27, 2008 1:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

.305./.345/.440 51 SBs

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds
who needs k-rod for 37 million when you can have d-rod for 50k?
twins sign ty wigginton ASAP!!!!

by RaysOfHope on Dec 26, 2008 9:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

.298/.350/.343 53 SB's

Avg just under .300 and I think he will walk a lot, add that to his D and speed and hell, just another star in Tampa.

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 26, 2008 9:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why

would Crawford slug .343, when his career average is .435, last 5 year average is .460, and his lowest season slugging was .362 in his first full season. Since then he has never slugged below .400.

I dont mean to pick on Joey, but this is my whole point. One bad year, and everyone has given up on Crawford being a star. Let me ask you this, would anyone be prediction numbers this low had he just had a season like 2007? Im not saying he will hit 20 HR like many of us predicted years ago, but I still dont see why everyone’s predictions are all below his career averages.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 26, 2008 9:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Typos happen.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 26, 2008 9:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

he would because I meant to write .443

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 26, 2008 9:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha thats would make a lot more sense

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 26, 2008 10:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I do so see at at least some of that power finally coming out

Well a) He has to show it eventually b) more incentive to get that 10 mil option picked up.

So my full line would be .298/.350/.443 53 SB 25 HR 80RBI

25 homers and 53 SB’s from a great defender? Yes plz!

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 26, 2008 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

heh the power makes me change my pediction of slugging

I would say he gets to .475 if he can hit 25 out

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 26, 2008 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He slugged .482 in 06 and only hit 18 HR

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 26, 2008 10:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

damn, you are making me look dumb tonight!

I am not the best with stats but getting that info, if he smacks 25 out, then it will be closer to .500 which will be more insane that Sparta

Evan Longoria and David Price - the fight for my heart

by joeybw on Dec 26, 2008 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

haha sorry about that

You just happened to be a recent post that at the time seemed to make my point. However, once you corrected yourself, your projections seem more reasonable. While your line seems pretty conservative, I’d say your home run total seems a bit excessive, which I love. I just want one person here with the guts to say that last year was a complete anomaly and he can still break out.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 27, 2008 1:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs