Money In the Bank Pt. 2

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 31, 2008 8:45 AM EST Comment 22 comments

Thanks to fangraphs new WAR, Value in Dollars and Salary features, we can easily see how much a player made vs. how much he was worth. For the Rays, getting more value for less buck is essential if the team is going to continue it's recent success. We all know Andrew Friedman has made some excellent moves via trades and signings, but now we can actually see how good those moves have been in terms of dollars.

Today, I take a look at the signings/trades of 2007. A few ground rules here:

The player must have been acquired by Friedman prior or during the 2007 season. To qualify using "worth" a player must have had at least 150 PA's with the team during the year.
Josh Paul and Ben Zobrist do not meet the 150 PA requirement set for using a player's worth, but they did receive a Major League Salary and are included in that portion.
Hee-Sop Choi signed a split minor league contract for 2007. He was released before the season started, but just to show how good the other signings were, I included what would've been his entire 2007 salary.

Here is the list:

2007	BA	OBP	SLG	WAR	Salary	Worth
Wiggington	0.275	0.329	4.58	0.4	$2.70	$1.60
Norton	0.243	0.358	0.347	-0.5	$0.80	-$1.90
Paul	0.190	0.234	0.248	-0.4	$0.60	-
Navarro	0.227	0.286	0.356	0.4	$0.40	$1.60
Pena	0.282	0.411	0.627	6	$0.80	$24.60
Harris	0.286	0.343	0.434	2.1	$0.40	$8.50
Iwamura	0.285	0.359	0.411	2	$1.80	$8.10
Wilson	0.251	0.291	0.354	-0.4	$0.40	-$1.50
Zobrist	0.155	0.184	0.206	-1.1	$0.40	-
Choi	-	-	-	-	$0.97	-

Salary & Worth in terms of Millions.

Obviously the big number that jumps out to you is Carlos Pena. After being released by the Rays at the end of spring training, the Rays ended up getting $24.6 million dollars of production from Pena for $800k. This is by far the best signing made in the Friedman Era and one of the most cost effective moves we'll ever see.

Other great values in 2007 were Brendan Harris and Aki Iwamura. Both infielders cost a combined $2.2 million, but provided over $16 million dollars of production. Ty Wiggington and Greg Norton proved to be worth less than their actual salaries in 2007 after giving great value in 2006. Again, shortstop cost the Rays a lot more than the actual production with Josh Wilson giving -$1.5 million dollars of value.

Overall Friedman spent just $9.27* million dollars on these players and got a whopping $41 million dollars worth of production thanks to Pena, Harris and Iwamura.

*includes 1.97 million in sunk costs(Zobrist, Paul, Choi)

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Comments

Reason #8,327 why I love Carlos Pena.

Also, reason #1 of why I love Greg Norton.

by rglass44 on Dec 31, 2008 11:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

and his bad knees

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 31, 2008 11:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I dont mean to be a problem but...

Brenden Harris and his terrible defense and his .777 OPS was worth 8.5 mil and Ty Wigginton’s defensive versatility and .787 OPS was worth only 1.5 mil?

Is it really worth THAT MUCH more to play crap defense at a premier position?

by Rays4242 on Dec 31, 2008 11:45 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Crappy shortstops > crappy third baseman, in terms of defensive value.

Also: Wigginton is no prized pig defensively.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 31, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wigginton is no prized pig defensively.

He looks like one.

by rglass44 on Dec 31, 2008 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

+1

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 31, 2008 11:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And it's 2.1 WAR, that's like an average player.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 31, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Just because the coach puts you in a bunch of different postions

doesn’t mean you have defensive versatility. Wigginton was awful at 2B/3B

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 31, 2008 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

actually it does

it just doesnt mean he was better than average at any of the 7 positions he played. Which is not my point. They were both bad defensively, I can understand why a guy who plays SS would have added value. But I watched nearly every game in 2007 and its hard to see how Harris was worth 8.5 mil and Wiggy only 1.5 mil. If it was 8.5 mil vs 5 mil I would understand that. They would be comparable in every way accept Harris played SS (badly) so he was worth 3.5 mil more. That makes sense. BUt 8.5 mil vs 1.5 mil?

How does WAR factor in the added value a guy has who plays numerous positions? Or does it just factor in only one of the positions Wiggy played?

by Rays4242 on Dec 31, 2008 12:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Harris also played 47 games at 2B where he was better than he was at SS

Using UZR/150 for 2007

Harris 2B
-4.1 47 games
Wigginton 2B
-11.1 39 games.

Harris SS
-8.0 87 games
Wiggington 3B
-12.8 80 games

In the common position, Wigginton is by far worse defensively and at a lesser position(3B) he is worse that Harris was at the tougher position(SS).

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 31, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also: Harris had more PAs, so he's getting a higher replacement level adjustment.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 31, 2008 1:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It factors in each based on playing time.

Shortstops get a positional jump because it’s harder to play SS than 3B.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 31, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

BJ Upton was worth 19.4 Million last year. Mike Aviles was worth 19.8

That doesn’t mean Aviles is better than Upton, but a good shortstop is and should be worth more than a good outfielder.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 31, 2008 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, I see this sort of data

as evidence for why it is futile to attempt to evaluate a GM simply by making lists of good and bad deals. What needs to be considered is the pattern of moves, the logic behind them.

For example, nobody could know that Pena would pay off so big. In fact, the Rays obviously did not know that would happen. What makes Friedman’s work so admirable is that he put the Rays in a position where they could find a gem. Had Pena not worked out, this chart would look a lot less favorable to Friedman, but proper analysis should still credit him with intelligent planning. (Process/Results, R.J.) It was in his targeting of players with particular kinds of skills, of finding potential value in undervalued talent, of avoiding the pitfalls of signing people like Derek Bell or Pat Meares ( I mean those types, not specifically those players) that his skillful management was manifested.

Unfortunately, too many fans think they can evaluate GMs (and managers too) by listing their “mistakes” as if they occur in a vacuum rather than being part of an overall approach to team-building.

by bobr on Dec 31, 2008 4:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This...

Unfortunately, too many fans think they can evaluate GMs (and managers too) by listing their “mistakes” as if they occur in a vacuum rather than being part of an overall approach to team-building.

Exactly!

Friedman built an infield of Pena, Iwamura, Bartlett, Longoria and Navarro in three years without overpaying for any of them. Yes, there were bad players thrown in the mix like Tomas Perez and Josh Wilson, but that is all part of the process of building the team.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 31, 2008 4:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs