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Around SBN: The End Of Sabanball: Details, Barbarians, And Precision

Money is Good

Luca Pacioli developed the world's first accounting method. It's called the "double-entry" method and works like a register. Rather than "losing" money, Pacioli would "transfer" the money towards another mean. The Rays seem to be attempting this, but perhaps it's more accurately described as a reallocation of assets. With Trever Miller's exit and the possibility of more purges from the Rays bullpen, the team is looking to free cash from the easiest and most volatile unit around.

Bullpens are easy to build and just as easily can collapse. Entering 2008, the Rays featured a number of millionaires in the bullpen; Troy Percival, Dan Wheeler, Trever Miller, Gary Glover, Al Reyes, and acquiring Chad Bradford in August. Exiting 2008, the Rays have retained only three of those players, with Bradford and Wheeler possible trade candidates and Percival vying to become the new Todd Jones. Despite none being the Rays best reliever, the team will have a little over 10 million tied into Bradford, Percival, and Wheeler. Purging one or two could result in a better bullpen along with more financial freedom. Wheeler and Percival are the top choices to dump. Unfortunately, not many teams are going to line up for a reliever who couldn't stay healthy despite multiple DL trips.

The concern over replacing them is well-placed, but easier than it appears. Let's take a look at their strengths and weaknesses:

 

Star-divide

Bradford:
+ Gets groundballs, doesn't allow homeruns, fun delivery.
- Doesn't strike anyone out, was a little walk happy..

Wheeler:
+ Above replacement level, related to Dewayne Staats.
- Too many fly balls and homeruns.

Percival:
+ Looks like bear
- Pitches like bear

Can these three be replaced by equal or better pitchers for less cost? Without a doubt. When we talked about our pitching situation we found Bradford, Wheeler, and Percival combined for 6 NLRS. Using their tRA* we projected them to combine for 7. That's not hard to replace. Need proof? Assume we'll use the Marcels projections and their FIPs, also assume the Rays acquire John Rheinecker, Sean Green, and make Jeff Niemann into a reliever (we'll knock a half of a run off of Niemann's projected FIP to account for the change, normally you'd assume a full run, but whatever.)

 

Pitcher IP FIP NLRS
Wheeler 66 4.22 3.89
Percival 52 4.74 0.1
Bradford 61 4.00 5.08
Green 71 4.10 5.13
Niemann 66 4.10 4.77
Rheinecker 52 4.63 0.69

Combined the old trio account for nearly 9 NLRS.
Combined the new trio accounts for nearly 11 NLRS. (Note: there's a 10 inning difference, thanks to Green, but even if you take him down by 10 innings the new trio combines for 10 NLRS.)

Combined the old trio accounts for 10 million.
Combined the new trio accounts for a little over a million, and whatever the non-contending Mariners wish to receive for Green (an outfielder or DH, perhaps?), heck Thayer might even be able to replicate Green's 4.1 FIP at no cost, or Juan Salas.

That puts the Rays in a better financial and personnel positions, freeing up roughly eight million dollars and gaining 0.2 WAR, allowing them to make a run at a bat while having enough money for arbitration proceedings.

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I'll make the motivational shirts!!!!

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 3:51 PM EST up reply actions  

No

Maddon was, but he had the Kaz, Shields, Garza= Smoltz, Avery, Glavine t shirt.

by rglass44 on Dec 5, 2008 8:50 AM EST up reply actions  

The Rays used a certain strategy to attain success.

You can’t ditch that strategy in favor of the same players for nostalgia’s sake if you want the success to continue. Over the next five years, many good players will come and go. We’ll miss them, but learn to love the new ones. And a few will be around for the entire ride. It’s best to learn that now, while emotions aren’t running high.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 4, 2008 3:56 PM EST reply actions  

And, if the Rays can't get Green

just substitute in whoever for Green. Lots of feasible guys.

The biggest challenge will be unloading Percy and Wheeler.

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 4:02 PM EST reply actions  

Matt Morris.

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 4:14 PM EST up reply actions  

And Mo Vaughn.

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

They are underestimating the shit out of Bradford.

2-21-08 $338 on the Rays to win the Pennant at 95:1 = $32,448. -bet placed by the new Matt Garza Fan Club Preisdent.

by Kenny845 on Dec 4, 2008 4:32 PM EST reply actions  

They aren't estimating anything.

It’s based on his last three seasons weighted with some regression thrown in.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 5:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Cash Rules Everything Around Me

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Dec 4, 2008 4:53 PM EST reply actions  

Wheeler

WAY too many homeruns.

You could almost count on him giving one up, late in the season.

Horrible.

by plasticman on Dec 4, 2008 4:55 PM EST reply actions  

If Bradford's FIP should be around 4.00

Then why hasn’t he had an RAA that high in 6 years?

Also, what makes you think we could get Sean Green?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 4, 2008 6:05 PM EST reply actions  

The Mariners have more needs than a bullpen.

If we can’t get Green, then Meredith, the Padres are selling. If we can’t get Meredith…ect.

Also, Bradford’s tRA in 2008 was over 4, but I guess tRA underrates Bradford, right?

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 6:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Meredith we already know will cost a lot in trade value

I know he had a down year last year, but previously they had been asking for top prospects in return…

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 4, 2008 7:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, but Greene was making a lot of money

Meredith is not.

I want to go off on a limb here, and say that Peavy won’t be traded this offseason. If they trade Greene and Giles, they will be at the 40MM that they need to be at in terms of payroll. I’m betting Peavy gets traded at the trade deadline, when someone gets desperate. The Padres will try to trade Giles, and he’ll be easy to be had, as long as the receiving team pays the bonus needed for Giles to waive his NTC.

The Rays should trade for Giles.

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 8:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I haven't looked

to see if it consistently underrates Bradford. Balls tend to be hit weakly off of him, so I don’t doubt it. He’s managed to put up great numbers without necessarily having great infield defense behind him for a while now though.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 4, 2008 7:34 PM EST up reply actions  

In a completely unrelated argument...

I feel like the Rays shouldn’t be afraid to shake up their bullpen because it might be better for them against the likes of Boston and NY. By the end of the season, Boston had seen all of our relievers multiple times and it became rather obvious that they’d begun to figure out what to expect from them (I’m thinking of Wheeler in particular, though it could have also been just Wheeler sucking). I can’t back this up any way statistically, but I figure it certainly can’t hurt to get new arms in our pen so that we keep our divisional foes on their toes a bit.

"I never threw an illegal pitch. The trouble is, once in a while I toss one that ain't never been seen by this generation." - Satchel Paige

by Steve Slowinski on Dec 4, 2008 9:40 PM EST reply actions  

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