This is Working Out Far Too Well

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 8:21 PM EST Comment 60 comments

Don't look for free-agent designated hitter Jason Giambi to join that group. Rather than bring him back, the A's might prefer to take a chance on a trade for Nationals first baseman Nick Johnson, who missed most of last season with a right-wrist injury.

Concerning the Dodgers SS hole:

Other than Furcal, who visited last week with the Oakland A's, the top remaining free-agent shortstop is Orlando Cabrera. The White Sox offered him arbitration, so the Dodgers would have to surrender their first-round draft choice to sign him, and they would prefer to explore other options. But it's a steep drop from Furcal and Cabrera to the likes of Alex Cora, Cesar Izturis and David Eckstein, so the Dodgers will be talking trade at next week's winter meetings.

Concerning the Blue Jays off-season plans:

Unfortunately, the Jays' financial situation (a sinking Canadian dollar in what's already been a poor economic climate) seems to rule out bringing any top-tier free agents north of the border.

So, it appears the two biggest opponents in the Giambi/Bradley race aren't so big after all, and Friedman's favorite trade partner, Uncle Neddy, needs a shortstop. I wonder if Dan Wheeler would be too rich for the Dodgers blood.

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How sweet

would it be if we could sign one of Giambi/Bradley and trade Bartlett and Sonnanstine for Kemp/Ethier.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 4, 2008 8:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ned Colletti doesn't strike me as the type who would value Sonnanstine properly.

He’s more likely to take Edwin back.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 8:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yay

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Dec 4, 2008 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I ran the numbers using Marcels/Chone projections:

Sonny 3 WAR
Bartlett 3 WAR

for

Kemp or Ethier (both are 3 WARish)

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How about Edwin + Bartlett?

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 8:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

...

Edwin 1.8 WAR
Bartlett 3 WAR

4.8 for 3 is better than 6 for 3, obviously, plus salaries.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Also: I don't really buy Bartlett being almost a win on defense.

But I want to see UZR before adjusting for good.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 4, 2008 9:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks.

Even if you knocked a win off Barty’s total, you’d still be giving up more WAR than receiving.

But then, the salaries would probably even it up.

And, there could very well be more regression for Edwin.

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Salaries and filling a hole from a strength.

I mean, it’s really:

Bartlett + Edwin + “Hinske”
for
Brignac + Niemann + Kemp/Ethier

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 5, 2008 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And who plays SS for us?

I’m sorry, but I think finally having a solid D up the middle had a LOT to do with the Rays success last year. I don’t think it’s a good idea to trade Bartlett. Give them the Cajun.

by floridaroar on Dec 4, 2008 10:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why not trade Bartlett?

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
09: This one is for all the rings.

by SRQman on Dec 4, 2008 10:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well

1. he is a better hitter than he showed last year
2. he mashes lefties
3. he has proven he is a quality major league fielder at shortstop.
4. he turned 29 two months ago and as such is still relatively young

The only thing Brignac has going for him is that he is younger. It would be a huge risk to start brignac at ss this year, while the possible reward isn’t very high. In other words, we know what we are going to get from JB, Brignac could match or possibly exceed JB’s stats or he could be awful. It’s not a risk worth taking. Remember what the rays looked like with a zobrist at SS? Scary.

by RaysTheRoof on Dec 4, 2008 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This is a joke right?

29 is relatively young? Not for a short stop. Typically this is the age where their range goes down unless you’re name is Omar Vizquel.

The only thing Brignac has going for him is that he is younger. It would be a huge risk to start brignac at ss this year, while the possible reward isn’t very high. In other words,

If you think the only thing Brignac has going for him is youth then…………

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 5, 2008 9:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Please tell us what Brignac brings to the table that Bartlett doesn't.

Even if Bartlett is declining (which is debatable) he is still a proven commodity and a very solid major league SS.

Putting all of your eggs in the Brignac basket is a risky proposition since he’s never shown he’s ready for prime time. He may be, but he’s not proven anything yet.

I’d rather see Brignac traded now, and we use the tried and true Bartlett at SS for the next couple of years while we develop Beckham as our SS of the future.

by floridaroar on Dec 5, 2008 11:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Power

He has power, and is at worst as good defensively as Bartlett last year. Bartlett was below average last year in every single defensive metric. Who knows why. The reality is that he may not be a plus-plus defender anymore, and if we can get value because of a perception that he is than great.

You honestly don’t think that Brignac won’t replicate a .286/.329/.361 line do you?

by rglass44 on Dec 5, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't see that offensive line as a given, no.

Brignac in AAA in 2008: .250/.299/.412

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 5, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think that's an aberration

Marcels: .268/.341/.415/.757 wOBA: .333

Barty: 277/.337/.369/.706 wOBA: .315

by rglass44 on Dec 5, 2008 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Marcel gives too much weight to Brignac's crazy Cal League season

I highly doubt that Brignac out-OPS’s Bartlett last year, and his OBP would almost certainly be lower.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 5, 2008 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's Barty's Marcel projection.

by rglass44 on Dec 5, 2008 3:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What is that Marcel above?

I’m really guessing here, but if you translate Barty’s .277/.337/.369 line to AAA, it looks something like .310/.380/.440.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 7, 2008 1:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brignac also brings a lower salary.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 5, 2008 12:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ding, ding, ding!

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 5, 2008 12:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can say the same thing for every prospect in baseball

Nobody is proven commodity at the major league level when they come up. Is Brignac one of the top SS prospects in baseball? Yes. Could he fall flat on his face when he reaches the Majors? Yes, but there is the same chance he turns into a stud.

by Tommy Rancel on Dec 5, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

There's a chance he turns into a stud

But it probably won’t be next year. The reasons he’s rated highly are because:

1) He had one great hitting season (two years ago in a hitter’s league)
2) His defense is somewhere between servicible and good at the major league level (from what I’ve seen of him, I lean towards servicable, but I know some scouts say it’s good)
3) He’s young relative to his league and always has been.

The ARL will take a year to catch up. People are banking on him continuing to show improvement since he’s young. If he can, great, but there’s little indication that he’ll be ready to hit in the majors next year. Two years from now I can buy.

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 5, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

CESAR IZTURIS!

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 5, 2008 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Bartlett's better than he played last year.

But if anyone wants to value Bartlett at that higher talent level, then sure, open a spot of Brignac.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 5, 2008 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brignac is probably a .300-.310 wOBA hitter next season.

If Bartlett plays up to his Marcels, we’re talking a half win difference offensively over 600 PAs. If Brignac is a plus defender, say +5, that’s a half win better than Bartlett was last season. Zero sum at shortstop, but an upgrade in RF by a win and an upgrade at DH by two win (assuming we clear the space needed) that’s a pretty good trade off.

Or we could get Cesar Izturis, plus RF and DH upgrades, and end up with a good defender who will hit worse than both, but at least he’s “proven”.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 5, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bartlett/Wheeler for Kemp or Ethier and throw-in?

Nah.

by RATW on Dec 4, 2008 8:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dodgers? That can be fun

Cory Wade is a bullpen stud, Kemp/Ethier fill that RF hole in very sexy way. Loney for DH? Lots of guys I like on that team,

by joeybw on Dec 4, 2008 8:44 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Ned Colletti is a sucker for veteran players.

Maybe we can pawn Wheeler off on him.

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 8:54 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can see him take Wheels

but he also needs a SS and Barty would def go their way if we got one of their sexy players

by joeybw on Dec 4, 2008 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So is Joe...

this could work very well.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 5, 2008 8:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Barty, Edwin, some spect for Kemp and Wade

Would it work?

Brignac at SS
Kemp at RF
Wade is a damn good young reliever
And we get some more money for a DH sign Bradley or DH
And finally spend whatever money we have left or get some F.A.T loogy

C Dioner Navarro
1B Carlos Pena
2B Akinori Iwamura
SS Reid Brignac
3B Evan Longoria
LF Carl Crawford
CF B.J Upton
RF Matt Kemp
DH Jason Giambi/Milton Bradley

Kazmir – Shields – Garza – Price – Sonny

Loogy – Niemann – Bradford – Percival – Wade – Howell – Aussie

Is this a pipe dream or realistic?

If it happened, how awesome would it be?

by joeybw on Dec 4, 2008 9:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Bradley or Giambi*

by joeybw on Dec 4, 2008 9:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where does Wheeler go?

In the trade for Kemp and Wade?

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 4, 2008 9:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oh jesus I forgot

Maybe Bartlett, Wheels and the decent spect gets it done but then where does Edwin go

eh……Friedman would figure it out

by joeybw on Dec 4, 2008 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wish we could have Wheels and Edwin over Percy and Niemann for sure

but a guy making 4 mil is making the Rays 25 man. Too confusing

by joeybw on Dec 4, 2008 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would

give up Wheels, Bartlett, and Edwin to get Kemp back (despite me not being a fan of his) or two of the three (preferrably Wheels and Edwin, I’m still wondering where JB’s walks up and ran off to. He seemed like a guy who would walk 50-60 times a year, but god knows he didn’t show it last year).

I’d rather have Ethier, but I’m not a huge fan of his eithers. Either is still fine as I liken Edwin’s value to a sack of blueberry muffins (which would be rather expensive if you get the big ones with real blueberries, but I digress). I’m not as low on wheels as most people seem to be, but now that I rarely get to see my man crushes (Ross Gload, Cha Seung Baek, and formerly Gabe Gross before he came here) I’ve taken a strong liking to Corey Wade.

Wade/Ethier for the three of those guys? I do that any day of the week. He can fit well in most of the top spots in the lineup, I would love that. Then throw in Bradley at DH and its just a fantastic day to be alive.

1B – Pena
2B – Aki
SS – Brignac
3B – Longo
LF – Carl
CF – B.J.
RF – Ethier
DH – Bradley

Brignac is still irksome, and one year of defensive metrics isn’t a good barometer of a players total defensive value, but if he can keep up what he did this year defensively a .265/.320/.400 hitter with a dozen homers and a dozen steals or so isn’t too bad, especially not coming out of the bottom of the lineup.

by Navi's_Navy on Dec 4, 2008 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

wipes drool off floor

1. Iwamura 2B
2. Crawford LF
3. Upton CF
4. Bradley DH
5. Longoria 3B
6. Pena 1B
7. Ethier RF
8. Navarro C
9. Brignac SS

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 4, 2008 11:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd prefer this

Crawford
Upton
Pena
Longoria
Bradley
Ethier
Navarro
Iwamura
Brignac

but Maddon is probably too traditional to not put a “scrappy” hitter at either 1 or 2

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://balkingtraditionalism.blogspot.com/

by Jack Moore on Dec 4, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i rather have giambi than bradley, probably around same money, but less of a health issue

but ill drool over that lineup with bradley or giambi lol

everything Rays,Marlins,Twins and Reds

by RaysOfHope on Dec 5, 2008 12:37 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also less years I assume.

Rays 2009 Slogan: "Come back with your shield or on it"

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Dec 5, 2008 8:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll go...

Upton
Bradley
Longoria
Pena
Kemp
Crawford
Navarro
Brignac
Iwamura

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 5, 2008 11:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Why the hell would you want Crawford batting leadoff?

Vogt early, Vogt often.

by Brickhaus on Dec 5, 2008 2:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As good of an OBP as Aki in 2007 and 2006 with more power and more speed.

I’m very curious which Crawford shows up next year, but assuming it will be the 2008 version is a bad assumption.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 7, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, my drool landed on your drool

I wasn’t trying to come on to you

by joeybw on Dec 4, 2008 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but what are JB's IVORP (Intangibles Value Over Replacement Player)

He was the MVP, seamheads! Voted by people who cover this sport for a living while you hide behind your statistics…in your MOM’S BASEMENT!!

/faced

/isitcolddownthere?

// ;)

by PlayOnWords on Dec 5, 2008 8:43 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I doubt CC would do this, but...

BJ
Bradley
Pena
Longo
Giambi
Kemp
Navi
Aki
Brig
CC

by rglass44 on Dec 5, 2008 8:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

As long as CC isn't leading off I'm cool

by Erik Hahmann on Dec 5, 2008 9:44 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

one problem

Thats ten players. And CC wont be batting 9th. He’ll be batting second, you can put money on it. Gotta pick one between Bradley and Giambi. Dont be too down on CC, he had a bad year last year but is still one year removed from a .315 BA etc. I doubt you would ever want CC before last year batting 9th.

by BossmanJunior333 on Dec 5, 2008 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

oops

I got too excited. In that case, I’ll redo it.

BJ
Bradley
Pena
Longo
CC
Kemp
Navi
Brig
Aki

Upton
CC
Pena
Longo
Giambi
Kemp
Navi
Brigg
Aki

by rglass44 on Dec 5, 2008 10:10 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How many lefties can we add to our lineup?

Brignac, Giambi, Ethier? Lets trade CC and sign Burrell for the DH

by LeftRight on Dec 5, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

What's the 2B plan for 2010?

Will Beckham be ready by then? No, right?

No internal options, right? Any potential targets?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 5, 2008 12:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pick up Aki's option?

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 5, 2008 12:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RYAN ROBERTS!

Or whatever F.A.T possess me at the moment.

by R.J. Anderson on Dec 5, 2008 12:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hahaha. Some similar guy will be on the FAT market for 2010-2011.

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 5, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh. $4.25MM? Yeah.

Ok, 2011?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Dec 5, 2008 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmm

Ellis if his option isn’t picked up (and I’m willing to bet that unless Ellis is hurt/unproductive, its getting picked up)???

Umm…

Trade!!!!!!

Jon Garland, pleasepleaseplease accept arbitration. Your mad iNNiNgZ eAtEr sKiLLz will be greater exemplified in next year's free agent class. kthxbai.

by Blicks on Dec 5, 2008 12:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs