In the days counting down to last season's P&C report, I remember saying that last year was a "make-or-break" season for BJ Upton. I thought his lack of position, lack of outright stunning numbers and the ugly USA Today comments pretty much made it clear that BJ Upton's star was possibly fading.
In many ways, this is happening again. People are questioning Joel Guzman. He's got the youth and glimpses of power, which BJ also showed, but he also lacks a solid position and his star is appearing to fade. You gotta remember, he was the highest-paid 16 year old for awhile. He just started growing, and growing and growing until he was basically too large to be a shortstop. Could he still play there, most likely, but you've gotta worry if he collided with his second baseman. Aki would probably be knocked out cold.
It isn't really a matter of raw talent with Joel, seeing as a number of his HRs at Durham were flat-out outrageous(he hit a building across the street from the park). For Joel, in my own honest opinion, it's a matter of applying those talents and being confident in himself.
Like I said in a DRB Mailbag vid, I think that Guzman could have 20-30 HR seasons...if he was given around 400-500 ABs. With Evan knocking on the door of the majors and the possibility of Aybar platooning with him, that many ABs may be hard to come by for Joel.