Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
I understand that you have to begin the season with your unquestioned top 2, Garza and Shields, starting in Baltimore. I was thinking, would it be a better idea to use Jackson in game 3 against Baltimore? Or do we basically concede victory to the Yanks in games 1 and 2 in New York? Maybe having Sonny start in New York wouldnt make a difference anyways, but Hammel and Jackson are being set up for failure
I think if we start Jackson or Hammel in game 3 against Baltimroe a few things will happen...
a) we will win
b) Jackson/Hammel gain confidence
c) we give ourself a chance to win game 1 against New York
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 26, 2008 5:49 PM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
I dont think facing Baltimore's #3 (whoever that is) will be a "laydown", but we should win with Sonny, Jackson, or Hammel. We could pitch JP Howell if we'd like, I dont care. I think playing against the Yanks #4, in New York, against the Yanks lineup, is a much bigger task. I guess it's not that big a deal. If we were concerned about getting embarrassed in NY to start the year, Im sure Longoria and Niemann wouldve made the team.
by blazinrayz on Mar 26, 2008 7:37 PM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by ttnorm on Mar 26, 2008 9:51 PM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
I have made it CLEAR that I was in favor of Jackson as a starter and Sonny in the bullpen as recently as 3 weeks ago. Why is it that because I think Sonny has a better chance in New York than Hammel and Jackson that means I am overhyping him? btw, I have always been a big fan of Hammel. Fact is, Jackson and Hammel haven't moved forward in their progression as professional pitchers in quite some time. Its always 1 step forward 2 steps back. A;ll Im saying is spare 1 of these guys and let him pitch against Baltimore, while letting the more reliable guy (Sonny) start against NY
Is it that unclear that I have to be called out for overhyping Sonny? I thought even the biggest Jackson supporters (such as myself) would realize this would be best
by blazinrayz on Mar 27, 2008 3:09 AM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by ttnorm on Mar 27, 2008 7:18 AM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by R.J. Anderson on
Mar 27, 2008 3:26 PM EDT
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
Sonny's advantage is almost completely based on a much better BB/9. That's certainly not meaningless, but it's not the whole picture. And he's not likely to improve significantly there, while Jax and Hammel have lots of green to work with. He's not more of a GB pitcher, not more of a K pitcher, not lower in SLG against to a significant degree. His control and resultant efficiency should make him the better of the 3, but there are other possible outcomes.
by nyyfaninlaaland on
Mar 27, 2008 6:23 PM EDT
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by ttnorm on
Mar 27, 2008 11:31 PM EDT
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by ttnorm on
Mar 27, 2008 11:32 PM EDT
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by R.J. Anderson on
Mar 27, 2008 11:44 PM EDT
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
This year it is Sonnanstine. Frankly, I do not expect him to become a star, although I do think he may. But I love watching him pitch and think he can be a solid back of the rotation starter. I expect that he will have some really terrible games because if he is slightly off he will probably get hammered. But I also think as he figures things out that he will minimize those outings keeping the Rays in most games he pitches and occasionally dazzling.
I think it is possible that Jackson will figure it out, and if he does, he will far surpass Sonnanstine in performance. I hope it happens, but given their total careers to date, I am more confident that Sonnanstine will reach his ceiling, and perhaps surprise us with how high that really is, than that Jackson will get near his. It's not even that I think Sonnanstine is smarter or a harder worker. From what I have read and observed, Jackson is very intelligent and absolutely committed to improving. It is just that I consider command and control to be premium qualities for a pitcher, and at a similar age, Andy seems far more advanced in those qualities than Jackson.
Unable to rely on pure power to overwhelm hitters, Sonnanstine has had to work not just on command and control, but on varying speeds, arm angles and deliveries and changing batters' eye levels. He has learned, it seems to me, to plan every pitch and experiment with sequences to keep batters off balance. Since he can get it into the high 80s, there is adequate separation between his hard stuff and off-speed pitches, and they all seem to have movement. And as he seems able to put them where he wants, that separation and movement compensate for the merely adequate power.
I think Jackson knows all that too, and works at it, but as he cannot control his stuff as precisely, he often has to rely on the power itself, and that will not consistently cut it in the majors. He may have a plan too, but it breaks down under stress.
While I have seen some posters speak of Sonnanstine in what I consider hyperbole, I do not consider my own view of him to be hype. I readily admit that my confidence is influenced by preference and even bias, but I also think there are sound reasons for that preference. And I do not think that labeling him solid back of the rotation starter material is unreasonable let alone hype.
by bobr on Mar 28, 2008 12:33 AM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
Not to hijack the string here, but he's reminiscent of Kennedy in NY to me - the guy without the "upside" of his more heralded young counterparts Joba and Phil. But he just seems to get it done, and he does it because of command. It amazes me, after the year he had rising from A ball to pitching in the Stadium in a pennant race in Sept as a rookie and showing excellent, even spectacular performance at each level, that he's looked at a 4-5 starter.
I understand - with young pitchers and evaluation, it's all about the fastball. But if that's what pitching was all about, Jeff Juden would be headed to the Hall of Fame and Greg Maddux would be a historical footnote. Sonny and E-Jax are the perfect embodiment of this dichotomy on 1 staff. There's more than 1 path to success in the pitching game, a point we too often forget.
I recall a discussion about a BA article we had here not too long ago about fastball velocity and success. The article trumpeted the correlation. But when I looked at their lists of highest minor league P velocity in different years, I was struck by how many failed. And high velocity pitchers are given many more chances, because "you can't teach velocity". Apparently, it's not easy to teach command either.
Sorry about the digression. Sonny balances the Rays mix - Hardballers in Kaz, Jax, Garza; pitchers Shields and Sonny. He has the greatest likelihood of success to me as well - but as said above, the alternative is possible.
by nyyfaninlaaland on
Mar 28, 2008 2:34 AM EDT
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
And high velocity pitchers are given many more chances, because "you can't teach velocity". Apparently, it's not easy to teach command either.
I think of both velocity and command in terms of inate ability and tools. Both are coachable and improvable. But for all practicle purposes, players have ceilings for both that goes beyond what is coachable. Especially established players.
I think that view is widely accepted in terms of velocity and 'stuff' but not of command.
by ttnorm on Mar 28, 2008 8:17 AM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by TonyT on Mar 28, 2008 10:16 AM EDT 0 recs
Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
Incidentally, like most observers, I expect the Orioles to be a poor team this year. But they will still win 40+ games, more likely 60+. They are a major league team capable of beating anyone in a specific game. I don't think it smart to assume we can throw anyone out there and win or that to demonstrate our growth we have to sweep them. This is not like #1 vs. #16 in the NCAA. In fact, championship teams have sometimes lost season series to last place teams.
by bobr on
Mar 28, 2008 10:52 AM EDT
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Re: Why start Jackson and Hammel in NY?
by TonyT on
Mar 28, 2008 2:43 PM EDT
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