Does good spring mean good season?

by gavind on Mar 27, 2008 7:09 PM EDT Comment 2 comments

With our record now at .750 with two games to go, I certainly hope there are some wins left in the tank. Of course, everyone loves to say how spring training stats don't count, but you have to admit that the Rays have been bringing it this March. I mean we started the spring with a double steal in the first inning of the first game! I dredged up an interesting article from 8 years ago that would tend to predict good things are coming in 2008. By good things I mean at least .500 baseball!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/inside_game/tom_verducci/news/2000/03/28/verducci_web_insider/

Essentially, the formula for predicting success involves a horrible record involving one run games from the previous year (check) and a significant improvement in winning percentage in spring compared to the previous year (check). The result (at the time) was a 21-for-21 predictor of a 15 win increase during the regular season. 66+15=81.

So, how many wins do you expect in 2008?

Poll

So how many wins do you expect in 2008?

Below 70

0 votes

Over 90

0 votes

81-90

8 votes

76-80

7 votes

71-75

0 votes

15 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 2 comments |

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Comments

81+

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 27, 2008 7:12 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Does good spring mean good season?

Nice find! RJ - update that data! Kidding.

Context is important. But that's a high correlation. I still think mid-high 70's - I roll with Vegas baby, even though I hate gambling. Lots of good and/ or improving teams in AL. But interleague sched should help.

That's still a good result - I fear elevated expectations will leave disappointing taste in mouths despite good gains, best ever record. Remember how disappointing last season was - well, it did s***. But LV was pretty right on (a game off). Money where their mouth is, plus the effect of aggregate risk (# moves with betting).

by nyyfaninlaaland on Mar 27, 2008 7:28 PM EDT reply actions