Papa Positivity's POV: The Offseason

by Matt Bishoff on Mar 30, 2008 1:54 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

With the Rays opening the season tomorrow, I thought it would be nice to take a look at what has transpired the last couple months through Joe's glasses.

The team lost a young superstar in the making in Delmon Young, which you never like to see go, but what we got back is even more impressive. We now have a potential #1 like starter slating in as our #3, and we have one of the top five defensive shortstops in all of baseball, who isn't too bad with the bat either.

One thing this team was missing last year was veteran leadership and good face. We have both of those qualities in the signings of Troy Percival and Cliff Floyd. We shored up the bullpen and added a power, left-handed bat to the middle of the order, which was something we needed to find. We even locked up Pena and Shields to multi-year deals, so we are going to have these guys around to dominate the AL East for years to come.

When looking at the offseason, it is easy to just look at the things we have done, but we also need to look at what has happened around us. The most important thing that may have happened this offseason is the fact that Erik Bedard is no longer in the AL East, and that Johan Santana is not coming to the AL East. That would have been a total of about 8-10 starts against two of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and now we might face them once or twice. That alone could be the difference between a playoff team and a .500 team

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"That alone could be the difference between a playoff team and a .500 team"

I don't know about that, even if you're going from the 5 (4 Bedard, 1 Santana) starts last year and assuming you'd win each game that's 86 wins instead of 81, unless of course you meant the starters replacing them will also cost their teams 5 or so games, but somewhere along the lines the Rays would still need to gain another 5-10.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2008 2:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

This is going against seeing Bedard 4-5 times and seeing Santana 4-5 times if he ended up with the Yankees. So 8-9 times versus seeing them 1-2 as it is now, could be a big swing.

by Matt Bishoff on Mar 30, 2008 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's assuming a lot

If we're playing the "if he ended up with..." game, then I can say what if Bedard ended up with the Mets based on Johan going to the Yankees?

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is also supposed to be through Joe Maddon's optimistic eyes that see everything in a positive light.

by Matt Bishoff on Mar 30, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Maddon's eyes don't work without Joe Maddon's brain and nervous system.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FALSE, Joe Maddon doesn't get nervous

by Matt Bishoff on Mar 30, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's a robot, or Socrates

Point remains, unless the O's replaced Bedard with crap - they did - and we faced Santana 4/5 times all ready, this really should do nothing to our chances of going from 81 to 91.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The point was to look at the offseason in a optimistic perspective. The perspective showed that we should be damn happy Santana didn't land in AL East.

by Matt Bishoff on Mar 30, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Joe Maddon would've said damn skippy

I understand the purpose, and if optimism includes manipulating facts then so be it. I'd rather not bloat expectations anymore is all I'm saying.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am not manipulating facts. It is a fact the Yanks and BoSox were interested in Santana, and he easily could have ended up here.

by Matt Bishoff on Mar 30, 2008 2:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If we use the "could've" approach shouldn't the Sox gain wins from us, not the Yanks, getting Percival?

I'm talking five games here, that's last season's number, we inflated that to eight/nine based on an "if" scenario. We'll have to agree to disagree.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm looking for a 74-77 win season. I still don't like the bullpen, particularly Percival as a closer. Having him around is a plus, in that he will provide a veteran presence and some leadership for the young guys. But realistically, he is a pitcher past his prime with a declining skill set. His peripherals were not special last season, and his ERA benefitted from an unrealistically high strand rate (a lot of base runners did not score).

On the other hand, I think Wheeler could be the man to close down games. If the bullpen solidifies, and Toronto continues to struggle with injuries, then yes Tampa can make a run at 80-83 wins.

I'm looking forward to getting this thing going tomorrow. This will be a big step forward for the franchise.

by RayFanNY on Mar 30, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Percival's LOB% shouldn't matter

If your closer can leave inherited runners on base 80%+ consistently they shouldn't be closers.

The bullpen/rotation concern me though.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 30, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not talking inherited runners, RJ. I'm talking about giving up hits/walks, but getting himself out of it an inordinate amount of times last season. His Strand Rate was unrealistic. Usually that type of stuff reverts back to the mean.

by RayFanNY on Mar 31, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ah

My misunderstanding. In that case you're correct it very much is a concern.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 31, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But in 40 innings Percival gave up 24 hits and 10 BBs. Maybe his strand rate was high (I haven't checked), but that is a pretty good ratio. He also struck out 36 which is below his career average but still pretty good.

I agree he is past his prime and we cannot expect him to repeat his peak performances, but his peripherals last year seem pretty good to me. What is it you see that is alarming?

by bobr on Mar 31, 2008 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bob,

I wouldn't say "alarming." But his K/9 is going down which is pretty typical of a late career skills decline. I just don't see him being more effective than Reyes was in the 2nd half last season. We are several years too late on getting a shut down closer in Percival.

But again...I do appreciate that he is here providing late inning leadership. I just think Wheeler is the guy to get it done eventually, unless they move up a youngster this season to pitch in that role.

by RayFanNY on Mar 31, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't tell anyone

But I'm sort of in your camp as well, though not necessarily for the same reasons. I am just generally more doubtful of this team than a lot of people. I think I can prognosticate a few things with relative confidence:

1. We will set a team record for wins in a single season.
2. We will finish in at least fourth place.

Beyond those two things, I am not certain about anything else. I would probably forecast a mean win projection of between 75-78 myself, with the ceiling being a few wins above .500 and third place in the division. Regardless, I will be obviously pleasantly surprised if the team exceeds these expectations, but my optimism has been beaten down so greatly by ten years of Devil Rays baseball that I've sort of started taking a "I'll believe it when I see it" approach to all things.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Mar 30, 2008 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know that feeling all too well and with each report of another "nagging" injury, the feeling grows in strength.

But for this moment, I'm just going to think blissful happy thoughts as the first pitch nears. Reality can wait for the first losing streak or Red Sox sweep.

by RATW on Mar 31, 2008 12:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs