Depodesta must be loving that situation...

One big number error jumped out at me above, but it only goes to reinforce your point RJ.

His H/9 in 2007 in Tampa was 10.9, not 7.4. Just makes the current number drop stick out even more. And it's hard for me to place much meaning on a .7 MPH FB decline, especially given we're talking about his first 2 starts of the season. If Jax had the kind of delievry control such a subtle change would require, this whole conversation would likely be moot. Seems to me a look at his comparable BABIPs could be telling, but the basis of the problem with this whole analysis is Sx4 - Small Successful Sample Size!

Comparing Jackson to Maddux is beyond reason. I know your intentions are good and you're hoping for the best, and I truly applaud that. That's what good fans do - I do the same. I keep hoping Mussina's 90+ fastball reappears - talk about blind faith!

But Jackson has posted 4 consecutive full seasons of mediocre to poor performance in the majors and the minors - the only exception in that time is a decent 11 start, 63 IP stint in AA in 2005 (hence the Rays making the '06 deal - well that, and that Baez sucks & Carter was cooked). Maddux rocketed to the show, making his debut in his 2nd year of full season ball in '86 and spending only 4 more outstanding AAA starts there in '87 after that. His first Cubs season was rocky, but he returned to the consistently good performance level he demonstrated without fail in the minors the very next year and maintained it forward. This bears no resemblance to Jackson's performance track whatever. I don't care if Maddux's '87 resembles Jax's 2007 - that ignores the full context that shows the true picture. It also bears noting that in Mad Dog's first outstanding majors year in '88, he was 22 years old, 21 in his learning curve '87 season. Bear in mind I'm no Maddux fan - though I highly respect his craft. The epitome of the non-"tools" highly successful pitcher. Dead opposite of E-Jax to me. Take a look at his actual comparables in Baseball Reference. Strangely no Maddux.

Jackson is young and still could improve, but his is not the career history evidenced by solid MLB starters, and certainly not Maddux's. I don't know if there is any example of a pitcher with Jackson's portfolio going on to any kind of consistent success in the Majors. Of course he could be the first. But if there is I'd bet it was as a reliever, which I've always thought was Jax's chance of real success in the bigs. Assuming the coming Rays starters continue to develop, I hope for his sake I'm right about that.

A change of 7/10's of a MPH is well within the variability of normal fastballs delivered in a single start. It is a meaningless difference. His velocity IS NOT DOWN. If he was in fact delivering FB's at 98 (which could be attributable to gun variabilty), but his average was 94, how did .7 become a significant change?

The change is H/9. 10.9 in '07 (pretty much his career avg), 4.5 in 2 '08 starts. A slower fastball isn't less hittable. Better location could be a factor, but his BB/9 isn't down that much - his strike % is exactly the same. His contact rate is down, but his K rate isn't up. His P/PA is down a bit, so he's getting hit a bit earlier in the count, and given the reduced contact rate the strikes have been put in play faster. His BABIP must be way down - don't have that either. And you know what many analysts say that means - think horseshoes, 4-leaf clovers, rabbit's feet. I don't have his pitch mix data either, but either he's really changed that (learning how to pitch), his FB has significantly more movement (learned a new one, check pitch f/x data), or he's simply been very lucky in these 2 starts. Evidence for either of the first 2 could give the faithful hope.

Perhaps "Mr Stat" RJ could enlighten us further if he has the necessary data access. I'm not big on digging up these deep details - why, when there's RJ!