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Meet the Candidates: Pedro Alvarez

The June draft may be a little over a month and a half away, but the Rays have been on the clock since the end of the 2007 season. Another finish at the bottom of the standings means the Rays once again will be picking first overall in June, and this year it seems four players are "in the running" to be selected, though by no means are the Rays excluding everybody else. Beginning today, we'll take a look at a candidate each day, culminating Friday with my first mock draft of the spring. Today we profile Pedro Alvarez, an infielder from Vanderbilt, after the jump.

Star-divide

The Rays went down to Vanderbilt to grab last year's #1 pick, David Price, and Alvarez might make it 2-for-2. A college junior, Alvarez was the consensus top college player entering the year, though a hammate injury cost him a good portion of the early part of the 2008 season. He's back at 3rd base now and looking good as ever, and with his impressive track record, it's tough to believe the injury will cost him come June 5th.

Alvarez was drafted out of a New York high school in the 14th round by Boston in 2005, but instead chose the college route and Vanderbilt. He started raking the day he arrived on campus, hitting 22 home runs his freshman year with an OPS of 1.131. He was named National and SEC Freshman of the Year, and entered the 2007 season with lofty expectations. He met them, raising his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage from his freshman year.

Alvarez was invited to play for the 2007 Team USA baseball team, and just continued smoking the ball, leading the team in most offensive categories. Prior to the 2008 college season, Alvarez was named a first-team preseason All-American and appeared on virtually every award watchlist. In the first series of the season, however, Alvarez was hit by a pitch and broke the hammate bone in his hand. He missed the rest of February and all of March, but when he returned in April, he showed no lingering effects of the injury, which often saps a hitters power for some time even after returning to action. Alvarez, though, has hit .318/.464/.614 with 3 home runs in 11 games total on the season. He likely won't take home any hardware because of the time missed, but it should go down as another impressive season.

It's not just the stats that has people in love with him. He has excellent strength and bat speed, allowing him to hit for both average and power from the left side of the plate, and rated #1 in each tool by Baseball America. He has a discerning eye at the plate(108 walks in 141 college games), and frankly, it's tough to find a flaw with him when he's in the batters box. His speed is merely average and he won't steal many bases, but he's efficient when he does and generally runs the bases wisely.

In the field, it's a bit of a different story. He's not a complete butcher at 3rd base like Ryan Braun, but there's a good chance he'll have to move off the position in the future. His elite bat will play anywhere, and the most likely destinations are 1B or a corner OF spot. He's a decent-but-not-great athlete with a pretty good arm. He can definitely stay at 3rd base for some time into his pro career, so it's not a huge worry for teams looking at him

Lastly, his outlook for if the Rays draft him: Longoria will be entrenched at 3B(and Evan is the superior defender anyway) and Carlos Pena at 1B, so Alvarez would likely have to move if he rakes his way to the majors as fast as most people expect. He'd come up through the system as a 3rd baseman, perhaps getting scattered at-bats at 1B and RF. The Rays also have the DH spot that they could use, and while Alvarez is adequate in the field, it's tough to take a guy #1 if you see his future at DH. Still, though, his bat is really something special and has to garner serious consideration for the top pick.

 

Monday: Pedro Alvarez

Tuesday: Aaron Crow

Wednesday: Brian Matusz

Thursday: Tim Beckham

Friday: Mock 1st round

Comment 15 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Excellent series idea, Kevin

Good round-up on each potential draftee. Obviously I know Alvarez pretty well, but I know nothing of the other three in the series, and am pretty ignorant overall when it comes to the draft. I look forward to the other installments, but let me just go out and say that regardless of who his competition is, Alvarez should be the No. 1 pick!

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Apr 14, 2008 2:43 PM EDT reply actions  

LOL

Really, you want Alvarez? I'm shocked!

Really, I think it comes down to Alvarez and Beckham. I've heard Bossman comp thrown around with Beckham, and he's widely expected to stick at SS. Beckham could be the #1 pick regardless, but especially if Alvarez really sticks to his bonus demands.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Apr 14, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Homer!

Tim Beckham will go #1.

Help save babies by donating to the March of Dimes. The mission of March of Dimes is to improve the health of babies by preventing birth defects, premature birth, and infant mortality.

http://www.marchforbabies.org/Carolyn_Addison

by SeanDubbs on Apr 14, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Guilty as charged

But quite frankly, it's never felt so good. GO DORES!!!!!!

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Apr 14, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

I look forward to the rest of the series.

I love keeping track of the young guys. My friend that's a scout for the Marlins keeps me up to date on some of the guys he's looked at. It would be awesome to get paid to watch prospects play.

Help save babies by donating to the March of Dimes. The mission of March of Dimes is to improve the health of babies by preventing birth defects, premature birth, and infant mortality.

http://www.marchforbabies.org/Carolyn_Addison

by SeanDubbs on Apr 14, 2008 2:53 PM EDT reply actions  

Doesn't matter what the series is about

just good to see Kevin back posting on a regular basis

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 14, 2008 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Jim Thome?

Sounds like Pedro is Thome's Mini-Me.

Help save babies by donating to the March of Dimes. The mission of March of Dimes is to improve the health of babies by preventing birth defects, premature birth, and infant mortality.

http://www.marchforbabies.org/Carolyn_Addison

by SeanDubbs on Apr 14, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Cabrera has skills at third

He's just a lazy piece of crap on defense.

Help save babies by donating to the March of Dimes. The mission of March of Dimes is to improve the health of babies by preventing birth defects, premature birth, and infant mortality.

http://www.marchforbabies.org/Carolyn_Addison

by SeanDubbs on Apr 14, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

Possibly...

But I would doubt it. I can’t see a college player trying to keep his draft value as high as possible being as obviously lazy as Cabrera.

Help save babies by donating to the March of Dimes. The mission of March of Dimes is to improve the health of babies by preventing birth defects, premature birth, and infant mortality.

http://www.marchforbabies.org/Carolyn_Addison

by SeanDubbs on Apr 15, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

pass

lingering fielding issues, unsureness of position, i don't like. there are plenty of bats to be taken. when you're drafting #1 overall, you take the best player of premium value. if he could stick at 3B, that would be him, but if he can't then his value drops, in my opinion.

the top SP and SS become more valuable by proxy.

by davidsmarch on Apr 14, 2008 3:24 PM EDT reply actions  

I would pick him 1st overall

It was mentioned in the write-up but lets say it again! 1st base and the Corner Outfield spots would be where he ends up in the bigs and he should get to the show real fast. I say we pick him and tag him for RF. Desmond still has some years yet to come in the minors and no one else is close either. T. Beckham would be my 2nd choice but I prefer Pedro.

SC raysfan

by SC raysfan on Apr 14, 2008 5:44 PM EDT reply actions  

I'll spoil my mock draft a little bit

Alvarez won't be #1 since I'll be projecting what I think will happen rather than what I want to happen. If I'm calling the shots, I'd personally take Alvarez.

by Kevin Gengler on Apr 15, 2008 1:04 AM EDT reply actions  

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