Bartlett's Slow Start

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 12:30 PM EDT

When the Rays traded Delmon Young away this offseason, many analysts saw this as a Young for Garza trade with some spare parts going each way. I have said from the beginning, that the piece that made this trade work for the Rays was Jason Bartlett. Bartlett gives the Rays a heck of a defensive shortstop, while also giving the team a guy who is capable of getting on base at a decent clip and stealing thirty bases.

As this season has started, Bartlett's glove has already made an impression on Rays fans. After having to watch Brendan Harris let ball after ball go out of his range, we now have someone in Bartlett, who has seemingly taken away the hit up the middle. Combine him with Akinori Iwamura who has made the switch from 3B to 2B seem completely natural, and the Rays have the best middle infield defense in team history.

Offensively, Bartlett hasn't been able to put things together. He is hitting to a pathetic OBP of .224, while only getting two extra basehits. This inability to get on base has led to only one stolen base, and he has really not provided anything to this team offensively thus far.

While watching the game last night, we got to see Bartlett ruin our best scoring chance of the evening. With bases loaded and one out in the 2nd innning, Bartlett hit a line drive right at Robinson Cano. The ball barely bounced before Cano grabbed it and resulted in an easy, inning-ending double play. This situation has become far too familiar in watching Bartlett this early in the season. Time after time seeing him hit the ball hard only to turn into an out.

This has led me to take a look at the numbers to see whether or not Barty has been unlucky. This far into the season, Bartlett's LD% is .211. By adding .120 to his LD% we find that .331 is his xBABIP. Comparing this to his BABIP of .231, we can see that Bartlett has had .100 of bad luck. This is also with the aforementioned play from last night not being scored as a line drive, as going into last night his xBABIP was above .360. This high amount of bad luck shows that Bartlett is due to turn things around with the bat.

I know some Rays fans may be getting a bad taste in their mouth when Bartlett comes to plate, but I am just asking for you to exude a little more patience. I still feel he was the most important part of that trade, and as the season progresses I think others will tend to feel that way as well.

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Comments

I think RJ recommended...

That we get Corey Patterson to play short.

Help save babies by donating to the March of Dimes. The mission of March of Dimes is to improve the health of babies by preventing birth defects, premature birth, and infant mortality.

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by SeanDubbs on Apr 16, 2008 12:52 PM EDT reply actions

Damn you and your Corey Patterson.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't really expect him to hit

He was acquired for his defense, and if he continues his glovework, I’ll be happy regardless of what he does at the plate. But Maddon should never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever bat him leadoff.

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 16, 2008 1:39 PM EDT reply actions

After Aki, he might be our best option

In 2006, Bartlett posted on OBP of .367, while CC has never posted an OBP higher than .355

Bartlett will not hit for power, but he can get on base and give you speed which are two things that you want out of your leadoff hitter. Last season, while battling injuries he still managed an OBP of .339. I have no problem with him as the leadoff hitter with Aki out. Aki’s OBP last year was .359, so even he isn’t that much better than Bartlett.

You say you didn’t expect him to hit, but I did. I have no doubt he can be a consistent .750+ OPS guy. Those aren’t all-star cailber numbers, but they are still good. Consider hitting ability like that with his glove, and he is a heck of a player.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, I just disagree

He has a lifetime OBP of .336 and he’s already 28, which leads me to believe that .367 was the abberation.

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 16, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

His last two seasons

He has had a OBP of .367 and .339 respectively. His lifetime OBP is due to his 2005 which was the first season where he was getting regular starts and he finished with a OBP of .316. Since then, he has gotten on-base at a better clip. Like I said with the .339, he played through injuries for a good portion of 2007 and still put up a respectable OBP.

However, you are entitled to your own opinion.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions

He’s a very important piece of the trade, but he’ll never be the most important piece. Matt Garza has by far the most talent and we desperately need him to turn into a #2 type pitcher sometime in the next 5 months and continue that from hence forth.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Apr 16, 2008 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

I agree with you

Matt Garza definitely is the most valuable player we acquired in the trade. You won’t receive an argument from me in those regards. I feel that Jason Bartlett was undervalued by the Twins. By important, I mean that he was the most important part of the trade, in making it a good trade for the Rays. If that makes sense….I probably should’ve just used a different word than important.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think they undervalued Bartlett

As much as the overvalued Delmon.

Help save babies by donating to the March of Dimes. The mission of March of Dimes is to improve the health of babies by preventing birth defects, premature birth, and infant mortality.

http://www.marchforbabies.org/Carolyn_Addison

by SeanDubbs on Apr 16, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Hard to say

that they undervalued Delmon. I mean if they made the trade with the intention of winning the World Series this year, then yes they did. But Delmon is very, very young and still has time to prove himself. If he could learn a little more patience, the on-base and power numbers will both improve.

I mean a few experts say the Twins won in this deal.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions

I mean a few experts say the Twins won in this deal.

I don’t see how. Even if* the Twins won on Garza v. Delmon, theres still almost no chance that they win on Bartlett v. Harris or Morlan v. Pridie . And the margin in which Delmon beats out Garza (in terms of value) cannot possible make up for the margin in which Bartlett/Morlan beats out Harris/Pridie.

*And thats IF Delmon improves and IF this nerve problem is a chronic problem for Garza. Pitching is the more valuable commodity and an above-average #3 starter outweighs a high avg./low OBP RF every day of the week.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

Most GM’s in baseball would rather have Delmon than Garza. That being said, I think we won in this deal because of Bartlett and Morlan.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Most GM’s in baseball would rather have Delmon than Garza.

How much longer do you think that opinion’s going to stand though? Say Delmon’s OBP doesn’t significantly improve by the all-star break and Garza’s ERA is under 4, does that preference start to waiver? I think so.

I think we won in this deal because of Bartlett and Morlan.

And thats been my stance on the deal since day one.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I am saying at the time the deal was made GM’s would rather have Delmon than Garza. Due to the nerve issues, this may even be more so now.

And thats been my stance on the deal since day one.

As it has for me, I have said this since day one. This article was just written to show how unlucky Bartlett has been.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait, what?

Why would most GMs want Delmon instead of Garza at the time of the deal?

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I think at the time of the deal

Delmon’s value was perceived to be higher than Garza’s. Which is why the other 2 players in the deal titled in our favor.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Why is that?

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that would completely depend on

That GM’s confidence in his coach’s ability to break Delmon of a years worth of bad habits. Which the Twins coaches have seemingly failed to do thus far.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins didn’t feel Garza was overly eager to receive coaching either.

I’m asking why would a GM value a supposed top end starter for a supposed top end right fielder? In a vacuum would you want Corey Hart or say Matt Cain?

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins didn’t feel Garza was overly eager to receive coaching either.

Yet he’s apparently complied with everything Hickey told him.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Edit Button

everything Hickey has told him. As in what they did in Spring training.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

The Twins aren’t exactly trendsetters on coaching.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Which makes

taking on a project like Delmon even more of a bad idea.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Longoria has more walks in a homestand than Delmon does this season.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

I never said

that OFer is more valuable than a SP, but that Delmon is more valuable than Garza, which has been stated by a few analysts, including Rob Neyer off the top of my head

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Apparently Delmon wasn’t valued too highly from the Giants or Indians.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Or the Athletics

Since they wouldn’t trade us Dan Haren.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions

But that is saying

that Haren is as valuable as Garza and Haren is more valuable

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 16, 2008 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Now you're just nitpicking.

by Vin on Apr 16, 2008 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Garza/Delmon’s value are based on future wins rather than current production, neither are currently equal to Dan Haren.

In fact, you could say the Twins weren’t completely on board with Garza, Smith said after the deal how the Rays wouldn’t do a deal minus Garza, which suggests they attempted to plug in other pitchers in place (Boof perhaps?)

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you Matt. I consider Bartlett a very important part of the trade. Obviously not on a par with Garza, but not a throw-in. I doubt the Rays would have made that deal straight up as Young for Garza. They had a defensive shortstop as a high priority in the off-season, and getting one who did have some offensive skills was a coup. I also agree that Bartlett will most likely improve his OBP considerably as the year progresses and be versatile enough to fill in as a leadoff hitter occasionally.

We have to keep remembering that early season slumps have a more pronounced effect on perceptions than those later in the season because an 0-4 day drops a BA precipitously when you only have 50 or so ABs. Suppose it is August and Bartlett is hitting .265/.337 with 18 steals in 22 attempts. Then he goes through a bad stretch of 15 games when he hits .200 and his line drops to .252/.331. Chances are nobody gets upset or notices. But that slump is no less (or more) significant than the one he is experiencing now.

by bobr on Apr 16, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions

Just keep this in mind

In going for a defensive short stop….we could have landing Cesar Iztures….how whould you guys like that?

Long Live Bartlett

Mound Visit

by Mound Visit on Apr 16, 2008 4:03 PM EDT reply actions

Certainly nobody wanted him.

ducks

Also what was with the random comment on BTB?

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions

My bad...at first I thought you wrote that article on BTB.

Just found out about the site and it seems pretty cool….and wanted to compliment you on your analysis and writings.

If you don’t want compliments, I’m fine with dat…..You will have to be the butt-end of my PG police jokes now that Jacob Larson is gone

Mound Visit

by Mound Visit on Apr 16, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, I figured it was a sarcastic jab.

Hence why you posted it in Peter’s article.

I appreciate it man, thanks.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 16, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

For those who have a BP account

Read the blurb from my question in Will Carroll’s chat regarding Garza and the follow-up from someone else. Also, he goes in further detail regarding it in today’s UTK article.

They basically go in detail why this injury is on Garza, not the Twins(per se).

Next, I can’t see how the Twins have won this trade. Look at Delmon’s OBP….he hasn’t changed at all.

I personally hope that Shields gives him some Sweet Chin Music tonight.

by Jacob Larsen on Apr 16, 2008 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

To be fair to Minnesota

They weren’t really expecting Delmon to improve a great deal this year. He’s what, 22, 23? He still has quite a bit of time to mature as a baseball player, and I still think he will be a great talent. Sometimes you really need to feel the pain resulting from performance deficiencies to make changes, and I think that time will eventually come for Delmon. However I also think that his batting skills will improve in advance of that as he nears his prime.

Personally, I’m ambivalent about the trade. I was in November and I am now. I can easily see why both teams felt is was a good deal, and I think the deal will be mutually beneficial, ultimately. Delmon is probably the most talented player in the trade, with Garza running a decent second. Obviously Bartlett and Morlan occupy the next two spots, and Pridie and Harris round out the list. In that, I think the deal was fair. The dominant feeling I have on the trade is really more of a respect thing than anything else. That comes out of my respect for Andrew Friedman, whom I admire for having the guts to pull the trigger on this deal. It was a very controversial move and Delmon is an extremely young talent with a very high potential production yield in the future. To trade that away is always going to be risky, and to do it in a deal like this with no massive yield in favor of the Rays is even more risky. But I respect the audacity he showed by doing it.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Apr 16, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Out of the Box!

Too many times our deep thinkers don’t let themselve’s think and listen from out of the box. Sports writers and experts from around the country all, and the word all is the correct one to use state that the Twins got the better of this deal. Delmon Young will put up huge numbers in the future. Once he learns patience at the plate he’ll be a a wrecking machine for years to come. It normally takes power hitters 5- seasons to develop this power stroke, Young will.

Last nights game showed why Bartlett was an expendible Twin as Jason threw the game away for the Rays. Garza? Has he even pitched a full season in the Bigs? As of now, has anyone been impressed with Matt at all? Me neither. The seasons still young, I hope Garza picks up the pace if he gets off the DL snyde that has curttailed his young career thus far.

While potential is a horrible word in baseball, Delmon Young oozes it. For that reasoning alone, The Twins took Friedman to the cleaners on this deal.

by John 63 on Apr 17, 2008 9:22 AM EDT reply actions

You assume that he will learn plate patience like it's no big deal.

Some hitters never do. That’s a fact. Young still might, but right now he profiles as a hacktastic type. I’m sure Young will develop his power and become a very good outfielder over the course of his career. He certainly has the talent. I don’t think he’ll put up “huge numbers”, but he’ll probably do very well.

Also, your perception of the common opinion on this trade is off. Sports writers and “experts” from the country do not universally agree on the “winner” of this deal, and it’s being completely disingenuous to suggest that. The opinion of the deal was very closely split, and many thought that the “winner” was in fact a wash.

Obviously the Twins felt Bartlett was expendable for the purposes of this trade, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a valuable player. He is a huge upgrade defensively at shortstop from Brendan Harris, no matter what a short spate of throwing errors might tell you. As for Garza, what does his having not pitched a full season in the majors have to do with anything? Delmon did, and sucked. Does that make him untalented? Of course not; same with Garza. He has the track record and the scouting acclaim to back up the value that the Rays placed on him. He has made exactly two starts so far this season, two poor starts, but two starts nonetheless. That isn’t enough time to judge him by.

Your drooling over Delmon Young ignores the talent that Garza has, as well as the value of the supplementary pieces acquired in the deal. I disagree on your perceptions of the trade.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Apr 17, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions