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Final Draft Notes; First Mock Draft

Okay, we've taken a look at the top four candidates to be selected with the first overall pick. Now it's time to see what you guys think, and I've set up a poll below for just that. Also, after the jump you can find some additional notes on the draft, as well as the coldly-anticipated first mock draft of the year.

Buy! Buy! Buy!
Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
- No relation to Tim, but they share last names, positions, and the top ranking among middle infielders in their respective classes. Beckham doesn't have one outstanding tool, but he sure can swing the bat, hitting .430/.530/.868 and shooting up draft boards this spring. I hate to make the comparison, but Beckham's scouting report sounds a lot like Evan Longoria's coming out of college. Of course, Longoria has far exceeded even the most optimistic projections for him, and it's doubtful Beckham does that. On the other hand, Beckham should be able to stick at SS, though some teams view him as a 3B down the line.

Brady Quinn Award
Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina
- Smoak was among the big boys last year, ahead of Pedro Alvarez in some rankings, but a poor showing with Team USA and an underwhelming junior season have knocked him down a peg or two. Smoak still offers plus power from both sides of the plate, and he'll take his walks, too. He's still putting up some great numbers, but just hasn't wowed scouts the way many expected. He'll still go in the upper half of the first round.

A Couple Of Catchers
Buster Posey, FSU, and Kyle Skipworth, Patriot HS(Ca.), Catchers
- This could be the first year since 1990 that two catchers go in the top 10 picks(Mike Lieberthal and Dan Wilson did it that year). Posey is absolutely crushing the ball at Florida State, hitting .479/.582/.850. Meanwhile, all Skipworth has done is, among other things, reach base in 25 straight plate appearances at one point. He's also very sound defensively and could hit the majors quickly, as far as high school catchers go.

Other Trends
The Boras Factor:
Always something to watch for. Already he's reportedly floated out contract numbers for two of his clients, Pedro Alvarez and Eric Hosmer($9.5 million and $7 million, respectively). It might be tough to get that for Alvarez, who was hurt, but it's Scott Boras and who knows. As the draft approaches, everyone will get a better idea of which teams are willing to pay out the nose. Which brings us to...

Teams Are Willing To Pay Out The Nose:
Many teams are on record as saying they'll be willing to go over MLB's recommended contract numbers, but it'll be interesting to see if teams draft accordingly. Just for a random example, take Pedro Alvarez. He's easily a top-4 talent, but if Boras doesn't budge from his alleged contract demands, then is a team like Pittsburgh going to take that risk? They will if they're serious about winning.

Where's The Blue-Chipper:
Not since 2005(okay, so it's not that long ago) has there been a class without a bona-fide blue-chip HS pitching prospect. 2006 had Clayton Kershaw and 2007 had Rick Porcello. 2008 has... Gerrit Cole, who has the best fastball but lacks secondary stuff, Sonny Gray, who has the best breaking ball, and Tim Melville, who is sort of the best overall package.

 

2008 1st Round MLB Mock Draft

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin(Ga.) HS - Rays can't resist the 5-tool potential, position scarcity doesn't hurt.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego - If at first(Sean Burnett, 2000), second(John VanBenschoten, 2001), third(Bryan Bullington, 2002), fourth(Brad Lincoln, 2006), or fifth(Daniel Moskos, 2007) you don't succeed, try again.
3. Kansas City Royals - Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri - KC appeases the fans by taking a local guy, appeases them more when they find out Crow can really bring it
4. Baltimore Orioles - Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt - Orioles showed they'll deal with Boras, rebuilding around some big bats in Wieters and Alvarez
5. San Francisco Giants - Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia - He's been rocketing up draft boards this spring, and SF takes the polished college SS(no relation to Tim)
6. Florida Marlins - Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, Fla. - Marlins don't have to go far for a slugging 1B who can simply mash
7. Cincinnati Reds - Tim Melville, RHP, Holtz HS, Mo. - He's the most complete HS pitcher in this year's draft
8. Chicago White Sox - Buster Posey, C, Florida State - Two way player in college, Posey has improved a lot at the dish this year
9. Washington Nationals - Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Ca. - Nats have been loading up on pitching, now it's time to take a potential star to catch them all
10. Houston Astros - Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane - The Astros need everything, but Hunt's fastball-slider combo is a good place to start

11. Texas Rangers - Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina - Underwhelming junior season, but he's the slugger they need since Teixeira left. Of course, this depends on whether they think Saltalamacchia can stay behind the plate
12. Oakland Athletics - Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno State - Oakland re-loaded their system with some quality arms, but it never hurts to add one more
13. St. Louis Cardinals - Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephens County HS, Ga. - Another two-way guy, he has power on the mound and at the plate. Probably a pitcher as a pro
14. Minnesota Twins - Alex Meyer, RHP, Greensburg(Ind.) HS - Big ol' righty can touch 96-97 and might even increase that over the next few years
15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Gerrit Cole, RHP, Lutheran HS, Ca. - Why the heck not? HS pitchers seem to work for them
16. Milwaukee Brewers - Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky - I almost put them down for Yonder Alonso, because I mean, you just never can have too many Fielders or LaPortas.
17. Toronto Blue Jays - Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami - Slips a little bit, but Alonso can really hit and has a great plate approach, too. Honestly, he'll probably go higher whenever I revise things.
18. New York Mets* - Joshua Fields, RHP, Georgia - Mets might want to get him to the majors by the end of the season
19. Chicago Cubs - Jemile Weeks, 2B, Miami - Rickie's brother, he didn't dominate college like his elder, but he's had a solid junior season
20. Seattle Mariners - Dennis Raben, OF, Miami - Second Miami guy to go in the first round, Raben is the best college OF of a weak crop

21. Detroit Tigers - Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine - Nobody like Porcello falling into their lap this time, and there are some health concerns, but Hunter is elite when he's on
22. New York Mets - Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Wilson HS(Ca.) - Winner of this year's Kyle Drabek award, the HS pitcher who slips for whatever reason. Congratulations Aaron, Rick Porcello will be presenting you with your award shortly.
23. San Diego Padres - Brett Wallace, 3B/1B, Arizona State - Offense... we need offense...
24. Philadelphia Phillies - Connor Gillaspie, 3B, Wichita State - They've drafted a lot of arms lately, and if Gillaspie, the Cape Cod MVP, can get to the show quickly, they could have a year or two of a Howard-Utley-Rollins-Gillaspie infield. Yikes.
25. Colorado Rockies - Allan Dykstra, 1B, Wake Forest - The Rockies would rather go with a college guy, and with a weak OF class, they take the potential heir to Todd Helton
26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Sonny Gray, RHP, Smyrna(Tn.) HS - The D'backs look like they hit the jackpot with a short righty last year in Jarrod Parker, and they'll pull the lever again
27. Minnesota Twins** - Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina - Probably won't stick at SS but should hit at least enough to be average at 3B.
28. New York Yankees - Tim Murphy, LHP, UCLA - EVERY YANKEE PROSPECT IS AMAZING MURPHY IS AWESOME YEAH
29. Cleveland Indians - Tyson Ross, RHP, California - The Indians love them some college draft picks
30. Boston Red Sox - Casey Kelly, SS/RHP, Sarasota(Fl.) HS - Son of an ex-MLBer, he can do a little bit of everything.

*from Braves for Tom Glavine
**from Angels for Torii Hunter

Poll
Who should the Tampa Bay Rays select #1 in the 2008 draft?
  • Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
  • Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
  • Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
  • Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS(Ga.)
  • Other

  214 votes | Results

0 recs | Comment 8 comments

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Comments

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That's an odd way to spell Timmy.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 19, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Have to go with Pedro

Someone posted this before but think about this: Upton, Alvarez, Longoria Oh My!!

SC raysfan

by SC raysfan on Apr 19, 2008 3:01 PM EDT   0 recs

I'd be fine with either.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Apr 19, 2008 3:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Beckham is an interesting prospect but I’m not big on drafting HS players, especially #1.

by floridaroar on Apr 19, 2008 3:41 PM EDT   0 recs

Pirate fan here

Just so you know, if Alvarez is available and the Bucs don’t take him, there’s probably going to be rioting in the streets here in Pittsburgh.

by Vlad on Apr 20, 2008 10:21 AM EDT   0 recs

As there should be

Pittsburgh has had enough crappy drafts where they were too cheap to pay out for it to continue now. I wish you all the best of luck over the next several years. Can’t call myself a Pirates fan, but PNC Park is the best major league stadium I’ve ever been to, and it deserves a winning team.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Apr 20, 2008 11:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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