I think your game grid has an error, hence the grousing by Dibble and others. If Longoria plays well, he forfeits potential earnings in this deal, so the first grid should say win/lose. But he has the right to make the choice for security and assured cash over income maximization. That he took a deal for much less than that signed by Sizemore 2 years ago (Grady had an additional years service at that point) is likely what concerns some. If all goes well performance and health-wise this is a very favorable deal for the Rays.

But again it’s a risk on the orgs behalf (some of the risk likely diminished by insurance) where prior they had been pretty risk averse. Frankly I think it’s pretty smart on the orgs part. For high potential young players this is a good approach – and not particularly revolutionary. If Longoria performs at near All Star levels starting in a year or 2, the Rays will save a boatload of cash – possibly more than the total contract value including the option years – compared to going short term. It’s a risky strategy with pitchers, but position guys seem much safer bets.

Baldelli hardly broke the bank – never made more than his 2.25 mil for ‘08, an amount that may well be largely covered by insurance. Had he not been so unlucky (when has anyone ever heard of mitochondrial disorder?) and performed near his initial levels his contract would have been laughably favorable to the club. No room to complain there.

You’re willing to project a money roof in 6 – 8 years of only 15 mil? There’s a good plenty of players making that today!
Plus look at the short term. His first 3 years he’s getting + $100K year 1 and 2. Year 3 is dependant on performance, but some top end guys going year to year have moved the number to 900K – Shields is making $1 mil and 1.5 mil in his last 2 non-arb years. Then look at the arb year numbers – 2, 4.5, and 6. Those aren’t extraordinary for a starting 3B – Crede got 5.1 for this his 3rd year after not playing at all the prior year! Then 7.5, 11 and 11.5 in his first 3 FA seasons if options are picked up – club options.

Look, if he turns out to be what you all hope, this is a spectacular deal for the club. If not, not so, but even the downside is likely insured to a good extent. Player insurance can typically only be bought for 3 years now, but the Rays would likely insure the arb years, or arb 2, 3 and 1st option, where all the real outlay is.

Look I agree Longy has every right to make this deal for security. It’s not a bad personal decision. And a great move by the club. But his number can affect others if used as a comp in arb hearings, hence the grousing.

Players have the right to go for security. They also have the right to take the personal risk of income maximization vs injury (see Kaz to date). Comparing Longy to Kaz, he’ll earn about $1 mil more in his first 3 years, but Kaz has made up that difference plus in his first arb year, with Longoria’s being 3 in the future. If Longy busts, good deal for him. Neither is doing wrong personally, Kaz is taking the risk instead of the club. It seems to me though that many here take offense to those who go the latter route, implying they’re not team players. It ’s just a risk / reward decision. The players don’t owe the org – the Rays org is doing fine financially.

The first 6 (counting this) are his control years. I still think the market – if he’s a top end player – could be well beyond $15 mil per by 2014. His option for 2015 (his 2nd FA year)is for less than any player or starting pitcher contracted or optional in 2013.

Look at David Wright’s deal – comparable service time salaries are way beyond Longoria’s despite being signed 2 years ago. Wright’s 3 FA years (11-13) are at a 15 mil average already, signed 2 years ago, and happening 3 calender years before Longy’s. You’re projecting 0% salary inflation in 3 years, assuming of course Longy is comparable to Wright. That has Longy “losing out” on $15 mil – 33% of Wright’s current contract. I’d call that a lot of money. And only 3 or 4 of Evan’s $30 mil is guaranteed via option buyout.

Look, it’s a ton of cash either way. I think the feeling is he may have given more than necessary for too little in return. Unless mitochondrial disorders are contagious. His salary levels are very low for comparable service years compared to other extensions in the market, further in the future, with more options in FA years than most, and again at lower figures. By all measures a significantly below market deal, hence the pissiness from some quarters.

tells me their expectations are high. Clubs aren’t signing every year 1 to 3 guy to extensions – only those with high performance and/or upside. My thinking is why sign for so long, with so many club options in FA seasons, when no one knows what will happen. And why sign an extension for numbers so far below some current arb awards and other extensons. But it’s hard to pass on $17 mil guaranteed – that’s just like winning the lottery.

And over 3 out of 4 major league players make less than $5 mil a year – it’s still a lot of money.

He can talk to Paul Cohen, Longoria/Tulowitski/Percival’s agent