Why not consider moving Reyes?

I could accept sending Andy to Durham to alleviate the roster crunch, but would vigorously oppose putting him in the bullpen. His particular skills are the opposite of those you want for a reliever but provide some promise for a starter.

As for Jackson, we have to avoid straw man arguments. The fact that some people are referring to statistics to support their view does not mean that is all that lies behind their arguments. And it is always distracting to attack statistical arguments as “just numbers” or in any other dismissive way.

The stats are meaningful. They are not conclusive, and there is no reason to suggest anyone thinks they are. But they are important in any effort to project. David may be right that Edwin is beginning to harness his ability and will start walking fewer and striking out more. Daniel Cabrera seems to have turned it around in the last 3 games and without checking, I imagine Oriole fans are having similar discussions about him.

But Jackson has not actually improved either his BB, K or K/BB rate to any significant extent. Nor did he do so last year during that brief (7 game?) stretch of good outings after which he finished the year just as erratically as he began it, just as might have been predicted from those apparently good performances. So while I also think the Rays are seeing his maturation, there is important counter evidence as well, and that cannot be dismissed or ignored.

I doubt the Rays will ditch him, nor should they in my view. But should a promising deal arise, he is certainly not so valuable as to be the roadblock. If he can be dealt for talent, I would have no problem doing it and giving Sonnanstine the reprieve. Frankly, I would deal Sonnanstine also and keep Jackson in the right deal, but if given the choice, would let Jackson go first.

There is no legitimate comparison to Kazmir. Scott also struck out 8.4/9 and was 21. Additionally, his minor league record was not just consistently good but dramatically better than Jackson’s whose professional career was marked more by failure than success. To compare them is to cherry pick, not to support a point.

Your point about Kazmir’s improvement is really important. After that first year, Kazmir’s K/BB rate improved to a terrific 3.13/1. He regressed a bit in 2007 to 2.69/1, but that was due to his weaker first half. Once he corrected his mechanics that ratio improved dramatically. It is exactly that sort of improvement we have not seen in Jackson.

Not only that, but Scott’s K rate improved in each year from under 9/9 to 10,1 and then 10.4/9IP. Not only that, but his BB rate also improved to a very acceptable 3.23/9,; although it regressed a bit in 2007, it stayed under 4/9 and again improved significantly in the second half.

Do you want to broaden the comparison to include more traditional stats as well? (With apologies to Jake)

Jackson at age 23: 5-15 record;161 IP in 31 starts; 195 hits; 19 home runs;
88 BBs (4.92/9); 128 Ks (7.16/9); 5.76 ERA; 78 ERA+;
1.758 WHIP

Kazmir at age 21: 10-9 record; 186 IP in 32 starts; 172 hits; 12 home runs;
100 BBs (4.84/9); 174 Ks (8.42/9); 3.77 ERA; 116 ERA+;
1.462 WHIP

The only thing that is close is the walks, and even there Kazmir has an advantage.

You can make a case for Jackson being more promising than Sonnanstine. Much as I hate to admit that, I do have to even if I am far more hopeful for Andy than for Edwin. But to try to compare his record at any point to Kazmir is simply not credible. It isn’t just the stats; it is by any measure, stats, scouting, performance history, old stats, new stats, reputation, whatever you want to consider, Edwin is not in the same class nor does his history suggest any comparison.

I tend not to like to consider short stretches or partial seasons unless there is some clear, not suspected, change in mechanics or some other factor (injury) to explain the performance change. So pointing to Jackson’s second half seems to me not very informative.

But let’s look at it. There is no doubt that from July 31 to the end of the year his ERA improved dramatically down to 4.27 for that period of 12 games. But why pick just that 12 game stretch? Why not a 20 game stretch or a 7 game stretch?

In fact, look at those 12 games. From July 31 Jackson pitched 5 consecutive very impressive looking games. In those 5 games his ERA was 1.36, although only once did he go more than 6 innings and in 3 of those games he walked 4 or (twice) 5 men in 6 innings.

But once that 5 game stretch was over, he pitched 7 more times to the end of the season, and only one of those games could be considered very good while one was bad and three were terrible. The other two were “eh”. His ERA over that 7 game stretch to end the year was 6.89.

Frankly, I don’t think those 7 unimpressive games are any more important than any other stretch, but neither do I see the 12 game record or the 5 game spurt as significant. It is not as if his tendencies, either to walk people or strike out people or give up hits or runs or to be knocked out early was really any different from the rest of his career. He had a nice little stretch followed by typically erratic, primarily poor performances.

Adam Morris? I think I used to post with him elsewhere.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jacksso01.shtml