Some Early Trends

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 8, 2008 11:16 AM EDT

After watching all of the games up to this point there have been a couple things that have stuck out to me concerning Carl Crawford and Jonny Gomes. Crawford has yet to show patience at the plate while JFG has continued a trend from last season.

Crawford has had 27 at-bats thus far in the season. In these at-bats he has put the first pitch in play five times. Even more discouraging, CC has swung at the first pitch 14 times. This means that 51.85% of his at-bats he has swung at the first pitch. With his speed and the capable hitters that surround him, Carl needs to show much more patience at the plate. He needs to be doing whatever he can to get on base. So far he is averaging a measly 2.9 pitches per plate attempt. The lowest of this figure for any other everyday starter on the team is 3.6 P/PA. Obviously, we are only six games into the season and it is far too early to read into any statistics. However, CC has hit poorly so far and I think it is due to his approach at the plate.

Gomes has no doubt shown his ability to crush homers . He has also shown the ability to do this with nobody on. Last season, Gomes hit 11 of his 17 homeruns with nobody on base. Looking closely at the numbers you can see a large discrepancy between his numbers with bases empty and with runners on base. In 182 PA last season with runners on base, Gomes hit to an OPS of .683 while only getting on base at a rate of .297. In 212 PA last season with the bases empty, he hit to an OPS of .865 with an OBP . 344. What can explain the difference between his numbers with or without men on base? I think it comes partially down to his extremely intense attitude. When runners are on base, I notice that Gomes try to swing extra hard and it ends up being counterproductive.

These are a couple things that I have noticed. Has anyone else picked up on the vibe of these trends?

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re:gomes

i'd say it's more likely that pitchers throw more hittable pitches when the bases are empty. i think that accounts more for his solo-shots, much more so then his "intense attitude"...

by davidsmarch on Apr 8, 2008 11:22 AM EDT reply actions

Well solo shots are just one thing

When your OPS is .200 points lower, that is something else. I would agree somewhat on the solo shots, as nearly every player will hit marginally more solo shots than homers with runners on base.

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 8, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

You fell for a small sample size

Gomes 2006
Empty: 218/332/423 755 OPS
Men on: 214/321/437 758 OPS

Gomes 2005
Empty: 291/387/545 932 OPS
Men on: 276/362/528 890 OPS

Gomes Career
Empty: 247/338/484 822 OPS
Men on: 235/331/438 769 OPS

As mentioned above and elsewhere, pitchers pitch differently to power hitters when men are on base. For example, Carlos Pena had 29 HR with the bases empty, but only 17 with men on. The HR difference is not unusual.

by G_ on Apr 8, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Superb Post

What he said!

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

I mentioned

I do not think the homerun difference is unusual. I never said Gomes wouldn't bounce back to 05/06, but rather that he didn't do well in this area in 2007. But in all actuality, i will just consider myself owned...nice comment

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 8, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Ditto

It also doesn't help that he typically hits so low in the lineup. Looking in the on-deck cricle at Shawn Riggans and Jason Bartlett can't help his plate discipline when there are runs to be driven in.

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Some of it may be

Gomes often came in as a late replacement or pinch hitter last year. According to B-Ref, he was 0-8, pinch hitting. Thats .60 points of OPS right there.

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

Of course this assumes

that there were runners on when he PH

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

Have you

noticed Gomes approach the at-bat differently with runners on base? Or see him swing harder with RISP?

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 8, 2008 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Well

I wouldn't say he "swings harder", but I think he does tend to expand his strike zone with 2 strikes. It may seem like he swings ridiculously hard when he strikes out, but I think that's just the way he swings.

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 11:44 AM EDT reply actions

He definitely struck out on a ball out of the zone to end it yesterday

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Correction: Sunday

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

It could also be that he is an extreme flyball hitter

This hurts his numbers with RISP in 2 ways. 1: Sac Flies are not accounted for in OPS, and 2. Groundball hitters get more advantage (at least in terms of BA and OPS which don't account for the double play) from having infielders guard the runners.

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

Crawford...

Although Crawford has never been known as a patient hitter, he is definitely pressing so far this season:

P/PA:
2008 - 2.79
2007 - 3.59
2006 - 3.54
2005 - 3.22
2004 - 3.49

However, it's very early, so hopefully he relaxes and does his thing going forward.

by RATW on Apr 8, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

Exactly,

Im not asking him to lead the league in walks, but seeing more than 3 pitches per at bat would be nice

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 8, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Patience at the plate

I think the team in general is looking horrible in this regard. These guys made a VERY mediocre Mike Mussina look unhittable. I mean, come on, his fastball was barely approaching 85 and his breaking stuff was just hanging there half the time. Let's learn from the Yankees - MAKE THESE PITCHERS WORK! Look what the Yanks did to Dohmann - just worked the count and made him throw lots of pitches, until he eventually (and inevitably) made some mistakes.

by Xaa on Apr 8, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

I think we can all agree

That we need more patience at the plate, particularly at the top of the order. All of the Crawford talk got me looking at box scores. So far this year CC and Aki have been on base at the same time only twice.

by GomesSweetGomes on Apr 8, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I thought the Rays had looked better in the patience department.. until last night. The Rays were hacking away at the Mussina breaking balls.

by RATW on Apr 8, 2008 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

only 1 solo

Gomes only has 1 solo homerun. His homerun on Saturday came with two people on.

by FanDisplaced on Apr 8, 2008 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

correct...

mistake on my part....

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Apr 8, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions

CC needs to change

Much has been made of Crawford's 5 years of improved BA, but if his approach keeps trending as last year, that could easily come to an end. His K rate rose and BB rate fell last year, despite a marginal P/AB improvement. CC has never been one to take a bunch of pitches. To me this is the one fact that keeps him from exceptional performance. A high OBP is what could catapult him and what he should as a 2 hitter be aiming at - .355 is good, but his big gains have been made in seasons ('04 & '06) when he upped his BB rate.

Of course with Pena and BJ batting behind him he's gonna see strikes, so this could be a lot easier said than done. So any gains may be dependant on him hitting for a higher average. Interesting issue to follow this season.

Gomes - well, when is a HR a bad thing? But he is the classic feast or famine guy. Johnny will never escape platooning until he can find a way to up the contact rate a bit. Hard to say if he could or should though - will his power and selectivity suffer if he tries to adapt?

by nyyfaninlaaland on Apr 8, 2008 2:54 PM EDT reply actions