DRaysBay: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:





Gabe Gross needs another home run

That would boost his slugging percentage over .400 and put him in the not particularly prestigious but at least interesting .200/.300/.400 club with Longoria, Pena, and Gomes. The requirements for this club are of course having a batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage at or above those numbers but not much higher. They stand at this after today's game:

Pena: .209/.313/.403
Longoria: .211/.311/.400
Gomes: .209/.316/.418
Gross: .205/.319/.385

This isn't just statistical trivia though, it's a good jumping off point for analysis. Setting aside the low batting averages for a moment all four of these players have two important things you want from a hitter: around 100 points difference between his BA and OBP (IsoD) and around 200 points between BA and SLG (IsoP). With Pena, a slugging first baseman, you'd like to see more like .250 or higher in IsoP but .200 is a good start at least and along with the high IsoD provides a good platform for valuable production even if the power didn't go up (I'm positive it will but that's not relevant at the moment). That means that all four of these players have an obvious ability to contribute to the team more if only those BAs would stop hanging out with Mario Mendoza.

So now the question is why are they that low and will they go up? Since it's still very early in the season and we're working with small sample sizes it's obvious that all four players could easily shoot up the rankings at any time, we just want to know now how likely it is.

The first thing to look at is BABIP. League average tends to be somewhere around .300, though it can vary greatly for hitters based on a variety of factors, so if it's well below .300 there's the possibility of it merely being bad luck so far, balls just not falling in for hits like they should. Once you have those numbers you should look at LD%, it has been established that in the majority of cases you can figure out about what a hitter's BABIP is by adding .11-.12 to his LD% (when expressed in decimal form instead of percentage). I'll take the middle and add .115 to get xBABIP and then xBA for each hitter (X is for expected). These numbers are through yesterday's game so they don't match up precisely with the ones above but it's close enough for me to make the points.

BABIP LD% xBABIP xBA
Pena .240 14.5 .260 .225
Longoria .254 22.2 .337 .290
Gomes .212 10.9 .224 .221
Gross .227 12.5 .240 .211

Obviously Longoria is just getting screwed so far, he may not keep hitting 22% of his balls for line drives but that average is bound to come up even without accounting for natural improvement as he adapts to the majors. He's fine.

Pena's LD% is down some (18% last year) but the main cause for his problems has been a strikeout rate worse than he had even with the Tigers outside of 2005. I suspect it's a swing issue related to the combination of the earlier slump and hamstring problem, over time the chances are pretty good that he'll iron it out and reduce it to around 30% or so; hopefully that will also produce more line drives and he can get up to the .260-.270 mark at least.

Gomes and Gross just aren't hitting line drives. Gomes has actually significantly reduced his strikeout rate so far but the lack of line drives is killing him. The good news is that he has a history of much higher LD% numbers so that's in favor of him getting better, unless he's striking out less because he's just making contact but not good enough contact. No way for us to know that without extensive study of film of all his plate appearances this season. Gross also has always had good LD% numbers so there's hope for him improving that as well but with his inconsistency in the majors so far in his career it's hard to say what he'll do.

Only time will tell which of those three will make it out of the .200/.300/.400 club but the nice thing about being in that club is that you're still decently productive even with the low BA, all four players entered today with EqAs of .260 (league average) or better.

0 recs | Comment 10 comments | Add your comment

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

Display:

Gross improvement

Great post Jim.

I was checking out Gross a couple days ago and is LD% was 6%. It went up to twelve in a matter of days. Similar to Bartlett, I imagine Gross was just pressing at the beginning and is finally starting to come into his own. With his patience I could see him .250/.350/.425 which would be a sizable improvement over last years RF.

The offense is in pretty good shape considering the people slumping. I’d be more concerned if Pena and Longoria were the only ones hitting, not the ones struggling.

by tallyray on May 11, 2008 9:22 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Im not sure why we got Gross, he wasnt too special in Millwaukee, but then again we didnt give up too much either. This does lead Jonny Gomes out the door with Floyd/Hinske on the DH.

"Life is great, if you're a starter."

by BombinRays on May 11, 2008 10:04 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Hinske is the every day RF, Gomes and Floyd platoon at DH.

Gross is the #4 outfielder who will come in for Hinske for defense and can back up all 3 OF spots and get spot starts v. RHP.

RJ is not an elitist douchebag who hates scouting

by ttnorm on May 11, 2008 11:46 PM EDT reply reply   0 recs

I don't disagreee

But he whales RHP and Jon doens’t

RJ is not an elitist douchebag who hates scouting

by ttnorm on May 12, 2008 1:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

i wish that were the case

but as we saw, gomes is going to continue to waste his considerable talent sitting on our bench… it’s sad, he could be so good if he got regular AB’s, as he has shown. it’s when you do this crap, and play him once or twice a week (if he’s lucky) that his AVG drops to where it is now. it pisses me off, he was one our best hitters when he was regular earlier in the year, hitting LD’s and HR’s all over the place, but now he seems like the forgotten man.

by davidsmarch on May 12, 2008 12:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I say

Trade Hinske.

by Ben Tumbling on May 12, 2008 2:02 AM EDT reply reply   0 recs

Why?

RJ is not an elitist douchebag who hates scouting

by ttnorm on May 13, 2008 12:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs


User Tools

Founded in February 2005
Ad-medium-smq

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Afterone005_small
Awesome
Kitchrays-sq_small
Uncharted Territory
Bpoe13-poe-fro-1-100x100_small
Price vs. A-Rod?
Small
Should the Rays try to trade for Griffey Jr?
Small
Musing on the game
Small
July
Tino_ray_small
Story of the AL EAST Family
Small
haha look at rocco!
Small
I got 5 letters hinting to the next big sign........
Raysav_small
NeoGAF The Bastion of Ray Bandwagoners

Post New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Ad-banner-faketeams

Editors-in-Chief

Patavatar_small Patrick L. Kennedy

Mcgriff5_small R.J. Anderson

Associate Editors

Small Jacob Larsen

Sumitamaavatar_small Jim Wisinski

Columnists

Raysbbprofilepic_small Matt Bishoff

Small Kevin Gengler

ad

Site Meter