This is a quotation from the chat:

“That team won 68 games last year, remember, and gave up 944 runs. So where are those extra 22 wins coming from? Matt Garza and a little bullpen improvement alone aren’t gonig to equal 22 more wins.”

Joe Sheehan, whom I respect enormously, wrote something similar a while back and it mystifies me that such intelligent analysts say these kinds of things. Sheehan’s point, and Stark’s as well if you read the whole response and some of his other statements, is that a team cannot improve run prevention over 200 runs in one year because it has never or rarely been done.

That is a nonsense argument based on some sort of mystical notion not on information or logic. The issue is not whether is has been done but why it hasn’t been done. If a team alters its personnel significantly, what is the difference what happened before? It is like saying the Cubs are unlikely to win the World Series because they haven’t done it in 100 years.

The issue is to look at who is playing in the field last year and this. How much improved is an infield of Iwamura, Bartlett and Longoria over Harris, Wilson and Iwamura? How much better is Upton in CF than he was last year? It is legitimate to argue that they do not make much difference, I suppose, but then the argument is not whether it is possible to improve by 200 runs over last year but whether these particular changes help you do so.

And the same holds for the pitching. Are Garza, Jackson and Sonnanstine an improvement over Fossum, Seo and Jackson? Is the bullpen better? Again, one can argue no, but to say the pitching cannot add lots of victories is silly. To carry it to an extreme, if the Rays replaced Seo, Fossum and Jackson with Santana, Peavy and Webb, and added Pujols and A-Rod would you say they still could not improve by 22 games because it’s only one year later?

This is one case where the argument from history is irrelevant. The argument has to be from the nature of the talent.

The Rays play in a division, and a league, that is much more competitive then the one the Marlins play in. There is no comparison, the Rays have a better team. How many gimmie wins do the marlins get by virtue of being in the NL? Alot.

It’s amazing how many people in baseball think David Price could pitch in the big leagues right now.

I completely agree. He’s supposedly sitting in the mid-90’s in Extended Spring Training. Not touching, sitting. If he stays healthy, he’s going to help this team in September. I love McGee, but Price’s fastball as a pro has been as good as his and his slider and change are light years ahead of Price. What an amazing time for the Rays.