Pena/Longoria Will Be Fine

by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 3:06 PM EDT

I wanted to make a quick post here to soothe some of the people wanting both Longoria and Pena shifted down in the lineup, because as you know crises precipitate change. You want your best players getting the most at-bats and hopefully working the counts, let's take a look at the top five(six) on the team in terms of P/PA:

Player	P/PA	Lineup Slot
Gross	4.4	8
Longoria	4.2	5
Pena	4.1	4
Hinske	4	7
Upton	3.9	3
Iwamura	3.9	1

Now let's look specifically at Longoria/Pena's BABIP and xBABIP numbers:

Player	LD%	xBABIP	BABIP
Pena	15.2	.272	.250
Longoria	20.3	.323	.257

Now, we know something more about Carlos Pena and where to expect his numbers, specifically on-base percentage to be, thanks to his career total. Without getting into the math (doing standard deviation and such) his career totals suggest he'll finish an OBP between .340/.356, he currently sits at .313.

Longoria's struggles meanwhile look to be a result of fate shortchanging him a few hits along the way, costing him about seven hits. Give those back to him -- as all singles -- and his line turns from .222/.319/.404 to .292/.379/.474.

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In the longrun

I think they will both be fine, especially Longoria. However, Pena has worried me some with the way he is striking out. He is just simply missing pitches that he should be hitting. Pitches that are strikes and last year he blasted for homers and doubles. I still think he will be fine…and no matter what we still have his glove

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on May 14, 2008 3:18 PM EDT 0 recs

Correct me if Im wrong

Pena’s BABIP is low, which suggests his avg will go up, correct? Good article, but I just wonder about Pena. If you notice not only does he swing and miss a lot more but he is popping a lot of pitches up when he does make contact and it really looks like he isnt seeing the ball as well. I believe he will turn it around, but the way he is putting the ball in play, doesnt make me feel good (especially since he’s on my fantasy team and I couldve had Morneau or D Lee for him straight up early in the year).

I do see him put good wood on some of his outs. He still sprays the ball to all fields, and he has been robbed a few times already by the shift teams implement for him. I just want to see less of those weak pop outs

by blazinrayz on May 14, 2008 3:32 PM EDT 0 recs

His BA should rise, yes.

Yeah, BABIP is just a fancy way of saying “Here’s how his luck is playing out on balls in play.” So this number bares no correlation to his strikeouts or walks, simply what he’s doing on fielded balls.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

What was Pena’s LD% last year?

by pmoc on May 14, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

NEvermind…found it on THT

by pmoc on May 14, 2008 4:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

He's pressing...

When luck doesn’t go your way at the plate a hitter will try to increase their luck by swinging at more pitches and discipline goes out the door. Last season, Ty Wiggington forced himself to see X number of pitches at least one AB per game and as a result he found himself seeing better pitches to hit being ahead in the count 1-1 compared to being even at 1-2. Pena is seeing a lot more 1-2’s this season than he is 2-1’s so he’s does not have the luxury of being selective on pitch #4 in fear of striking out looking.

John Olerude and Edgar Martinez both had the same, great approach to hitting that helped them both to avoid prolonged slumps and have a high OBP. Based on the count the would look for a specific pitch in a specific location and if the pitch wasn’t there, they would let it go by. Very simple to it’s core but it’s effective and practical and the best way to both get out of a slump and stay out of a slump. Longoria seems to have a similar approach to Olerude and Martinez but Pena looks like he’s passing a kidney stone every time up. Also, having that shift when Pena is hitting is also taking away a few of his hits so that plays in as well.

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on May 14, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up 0 recs