Edwin Jackson
by blazinrayz on May 14, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
35 comments
Im starting to wonder where's all the love for this guy? He has pitched against the Yankees 3 times already this year, Boston twice, Toronto, Seattle, and Chicago once each and he sports a 3.47 ERA to go along with a respectable 1.30 WHIP. He has 3 no decisions in games that we won, and he pitched 7+ with 1 ER or less in each of those games.
Although I was a Jackson supporter in the offseason, I'm not going to get a Sonny v Jackson thread going because I like what I see out of both of them. Im just wondering where the Jackson love is. If Sonny had the kind of matchups Jackson has faced, and had the same results, well Im sure we would already have a DRaysBay get together complete with a moonwalk, ice cream cake and fireworks to celebrate.
In Jackson's past 2 starts, he has gone 15 innings, 11 hits, 2 walks, 0 runs allowed in tough division matchups.
Jackson only has a 34:21 K:BB rate, but I dont think anyone can complain. His command and control have been everything we've asked for out of him and his K rates being as low as they are signal that Jackson IS learning how to get guys out and pitch deep into games. I'm not sold that he keeps this up with any consistency, but you got to love what he has given us thus far. I think it will take a complete downspiral for us to be unable to trade Jackson when we find the time is right
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Jackson has always had more talent then Sonny, but he hasn’t showed to be consistant until now.
Throwing a 19 year old fresh out of high school into the majors, which the dodgers did to him, will cause stuff like that.
by putupyourDUKES on May 14, 2008 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I love how we ignore that Jackson didn't have control before the majors either.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
check out his AA numbers,
before his first call up, and try saying what you just said again…
by davidsmarch on May 15, 2008 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll say what I said again
Jackson didn’t have control before the majors either. Look at his AAA numbers, then ask me to say it again, and for the record, minor league BB/9: 4.01.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 15, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Deserving the love
Jackson deserves whatever praise he gets. No matter how concerned some of us are about peripherals, he has performed excellently. If the control and command are for real, and only a lot more starts can tell us that, there is no reason to trade him. He is then at worst a mid-rotation starter and possibly more, and at a still very young age.
Important too is that he appears to be durable. There have been no red flags about arm trouble or injury of any sort. If it is for real, kudos to Maddon and the organization for another demonstration of the virtue of patience, in this case, above and beyond the line of duty.
Think about it, if this is the real Jackson, why would you deal him to make room for an untested McGee or Davis or Hellickson? You already have the makings of one of the best, if not the best, staffs in baseball with Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Jackson and presumably Price very soon. That is 5 pitchers, each of whom might be top of the rotation talent.
Nonetheless, as much as he is gaining credibility with every start, I prefer to wait a while before crowning him. In the meantime, let’s enjoy it and root for him to keep it up.
by bobr on May 14, 2008 4:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
“Think about it, if this is the real Jackson, why would you deal him to make room for an untested McGee or Davis or Hellickson?”
Because you (I in this case) think that Davis (and maybe Hellickson) can perform better and Edwin is entering arbitration. You have big paydays for your two aces, Garza and Sonny, ect. are a few years away, if you think Davis can outperform Edwin for less and have a good offer for Edwin you do it.
Now why would you deal Edwin otherwise? Because you think he’s a house of cards with those peripherals and you sell high.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson
I am not so much disagreeing with you R.J. as making a conditional statement. He has walked just one man in each of his last two starts going deep into each game. And noticeable too is that he has worked his way out of jams instead of collapsing as he had done in the past.
I agree that it is hardly sufficient evidence to say he is fixed, and pitching to contact will almost certainly lead to more hits. But, leaving aside the financial issues for the moment, if Jackson maintains his control and command, he is likely a very effective pitcher. And if he does that over the course of a full season, it seems to me he then is more a sure thing than any minor league prospect, no matter how highly touted.
Further, the Rays are entering their contending phase now. No matter how talented, it is likely that Davis or McGee, even Price, will go through a period of adjustment during which they will falter and be erratic. (cf: Hughes, Kennedy, Buchholz, and for that matter Kazmir) It seems to me more prudent to hold onto a pitcher who has done it in the majors already, and whose tools are probably as good as those coming up behind.
Again, my argument hinges on a huge “if”, and in my view an “if” that has to be demonstrated over a full season at least and with a full examination of many factors, including peripherals. And I realize at that point that the arbitration issues will have to play a role in the decision too. But I would not automatically prefer an elite prospect because we have been so excited about them and so disappointed for so long in Jackson.
The fact is that Jackson’s BB rate has improved over a full walk/9, and while his K rate has declined almost as much, it remains over 6 which is acceptable. And the K/BB rate has improved as well. It is far too early to make much of that, but added to observations about his demeanor on the mound, it at least gives some cause for hope. Nobody has ever denied that he is smart and works hard.
Given the choice, I still like Sonnanstine’s chances of succeeding better. I certainly wouldn’t project for Andy based on his performance so far, and I think doing it for Jackson is even sillier. But better this than what we saw last year.
by bobr on May 14, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As it stands Jackson is a good #5
If something really has changed, thanks to Hickey/Shields/whatever, and he can limit himself to 3 or so walks per nine and sustains when the hits come falling, then yes he’s an asset, but I’m not going to say he’s definitely improved after a two game stretch, just like I wouldn’t say he’s bombed and needs to go after a bad two start stretch.
I want to see how he does through July, and even throughout the rest of the season before we really crown him a success story or simply a regression waiting to happen.
As for your hypothetical, it really just depends on what the stats and scouts say on the young pitcher and what the state of our rotation is.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“His command and control have been everything we’ve asked for out of him and his K rates being as low as they are signal that Jackson IS learning how to get guys out and pitch deep into games.”
No, they haven’t. He’s still walking 4 per 9 and he’s gotten lucky that the hits haven’t caught up to him.
That’s what my Jackson post would be about. He pitched great last night, and everyone slobbered on him in the GDT, but I don’t practice being temperamental when it comes to player performances when my logic tells me otherwise.
Oh and go check when Sonny threw his 3 hit shutout, there wasn’t cake or anything of the sort. Unlike the Jackson supporters, it doesn’t seem that Sonnanstine fans feel the need to make posts like these.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Excuse me, he's walking 3.83 per 9.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why people are so hesitant to give Jackson some respect...
Sometimes, it seems as people took an unfavorable position on him last year and are just being stubborn. They won’t admit he’s even shown improvement even though he clearly has. I think the root of the problem is that Jackson’s lack of options forced everone to witness his growing pains instead of having them hidden in the minors.
by save_the_trop on May 14, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We've seen him pitch enough
to know that there’s still something not right, however he’s kept us in the games lately. Can’t argue with that…
by Jacob Larsen on May 14, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because his peripherals scream that his ERA is a fluke.
Even his FIP is 3.71, and when the hits catch up, and trust me, they will based on the thousands of cases you seem to shrug off, he’s not going to be this good.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also let this stupid Sonny/Jackson thing die.
They aren’t competing for a rotation spot, stop trying to flare up melodrama by acting like I don’t acknowledge when a player does well.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
When have you acknowledged that he has done well?
by Cory Alexander on May 14, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The last two gamethreads.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To quote myself "This goes everything I've said, but Jackson is getting me a bit excited."
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
whoops
Anyway, you keep pointing to all of your stats that he is headed for a failure. How about the sixth inning he pitched last night to get out of no runs with it? He had a man on 3rd with one out. The old “Nuke” would of melted-down there. He didn’t. He pitched himself out of it.
These last few starts, there is definetly something different he is doing.
by Cory Alexander on May 14, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ah
Must of not seen that. my fault.
by Cory Alexander on May 14, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He pitched great last night and v. Toronto.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's the thing though, I'm not temperamental in my judgements.
You don’t seem me call for Pena’s head after a 0-3 3 K game because I do believe in the numbers and I hope he’s not an outlier. I hope Edwin IS an outlier so he keeps succeeding, but Ithat’s not something you can just predict.
07: 7.16 K/9 .4.92 BB/9, 1.45 K/BB 19.4 LD%, .351 BABIP (.314 xBABIP)
08: 6.20 K/9, 3.83 BB/9, 1.62 K/BB, 21.5 LD%, .276 BABIP (.335 xBABIP)
Last year he was extremely unlucky - although a lot of the luck balanced out in the second half - this year he’s extremely lucky. The difference is a few hits, and if he’s walking nearly 4 per 9 (last night’s game greatly helped that ratio) he’s going to go bit, and bad.
He’s got less hits allowed than IP right now, that’s simply not going to last.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he continues to pitch the way he did last night, I'll be happy
by Cory Alexander on May 14, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Understatement.
I’m not saying it’s definitely going to happen, again there are possibilities of outliers, but this whole “I TOLD YOU I WAS RIGHT.” business is getting old. I use numbers as my measure, some don’t, that’s fine, I don’t go around constantly saying “HAHA I WAS RIGHT ABOUT WHEELER, YOU WERE WRONG!” Do I? I don’t write to have those privileges, it’s just an added perk, I’m just showing people that there’s at least a 50% chance this isn’t going to last.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boy, did you say a mouthful.
Forget the “I told you so.” It’s worse than old; it’s not really honest. As Sheehan said a few weeks ago, it isn’t the answer that is worthwhile but the process used to arrive at it. And despite what I said above, I think you are right to remain dubious about Jackson.
by bobr on May 14, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s too early to say. If one start greatly effects his BB/9 ratio, then are we dealing with a large enough sample size?
by pmoc on May 14, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
His BB/9 went from 4.25 to 3.83 after last night's start.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Meaning the sample size is still small.
by Cory Alexander on May 14, 2008 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Looks that way, yes.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kind of related
RJ..what research are you aware of that looks at game by game babip for pitchers vs season long babip? ARe there a lot of pitchers who exhibit in game babip of .100 then .500 then .100 ….. or are the majority of pitchers more consistent?
Is there research on how to isolate “luck” vs “stuff” within the context of a single game? Intuitively we are led to believe that some pitchers are just either on/off, hot/cold and that some of this may transcend the luck that is inherent in babip analysis….can you point me anywhere?
by pmoc on May 14, 2008 6:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've never seen work done on the concept of looking at game-by-game BABIP
But I could see what you mean, although I’ve always went with the idea that yes, pitchers have off days and on days that eventually balance out into homeostasis. Shields for example has evened out a little thanks to the two shutouts, but even still his K/BB is lower than last year’s.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on May 14, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My Concern With Jackson Is...
I’m been a supporter of Jackson since we traded for him but my main concern with him is mental. He seems to get really out of the game once he falls behind by a run or two. I’d like to see him handle those situations better. Other than that I think he’s progressing very well.
by floridaroar on May 14, 2008 6:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
No, they haven’t. He’s still walking 4 per 9 and he’s gotten lucky that the hits haven’t caught up to him.
what have you observed the last month that has told you that?
by blazinrayz on May 15, 2008 2:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fact is
Plenty of pitchers pitch to contact, and their stuff is good enough to do it. Wang and Carmona dont strikeout many batters and they thrive on contact. The biggest improvement of all from Jackson has been his mound presence. IM not sure which stat tells you that, but it is evident. He is growing visibly through the weeks at keeping his composure in different situations.
I didnt say anything about crowning anyone. I just said it should be acknowledged what he’s done for this team this year. If Jackson has been a good #5 I dont know where that would place Sonny at right now
by blazinrayz on May 15, 2008 2:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's the impressive part about Wang
I would have thought that pitching to contact with Jeter and Giambi in the IF would be hazardous to his health, but he makes it work. He could be the most unusual of athletes, an underrated New York star.
RJ is not an elitist douchebag who hates scouting
by ttnorm on May 15, 2008 7:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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