I always feel like this is a god v science thing. I consider myself more on the other side, but I think SABRmetrics has done a lot to refine the game and I am looking to learn more about it myself. So if someone really feels the need to school me, Im all ears. These are my views, and I would be happy if someone was able to shed some differnet light on these things if you think I am wrong

Most sabr guys know the limitations of their own stats. For example, I think everyone agrees that a leadoff BB to a poor #9 hitter to leadoff an inning is far more damaging to a teams win chance than a 2 out bases empty BB to Pujols. Also, a 4 hop bouncer through the infield for a single is treated unfavorably for a pitcher than a line drive out caught at 400 feet. Yet the sabr metrics used here do not take any of that into account when evaluating a pitcher.

Sabremetrics are good quick and dirty guides and are certainly more informative than traditional stats like BA. But if seen in a vacuum of actual ball in play measurements, they can lie.

To argue that statistical analysis has dumb downed the sport is borderline absurd.

I have an issue with people who simply regurgitate stats without understanding their true meaning, but I do challenge you to read any of the Bill James abstracts and not come away with a better understanding of the game. Statistical analysis is the heart of baseball and it always has been. You cannot look at two hitters in a vacuum and tell me which one is better. You just can’t. You can, however, look at a collection of statistics and say which one you believe will be better in the future. That’s the purpose of statistics. Of course results will vary, that’s the very nature of probability, but statistics will give you a better understand of what probably will happen in the future, better than your eye can.

“Im becoming more and more convinced that being an all out SABRhead (heavily relying on SABR stats to make points) just allows those who cant make strong evaluations from physical observations alone, to hide behind a protective shell of numbers that frees them from the burden of using their own judgment and intuition and protects them from the criticism that comes from having “projections” that never materialize.”

I don’t deny the passion for the game that these people obviously have. I just see myself get into debates with people at times that I am unable to argue because of these “magic numbers” that are all empowering. I would love to sit down with these people over a Rays game and discuss baseball as we see it being played.

I dont think anything is being blown out of proportion. I think there are many people who are into SABRmetrics that also watch the game and have keen eyes for the game and sharp baseball minds. Why wouldnt the smartest baseball people in the world like SABRmetrics? It has undeniably taken the game to new levels

Obviously the types of people I am talking about ACTUALLY WATCH THE GAME also, but I think their seemingly “wide aray” of baseball knowledge is limited to what they read on paper

agreed, and good post

and that is that eyewitnes testimony is also unreliable, particularly after the passage of time. It is relatively easy to form a conclusion from a short term set of observations and fail to change as we “see what we want to see”. Statistics serve as an observational truth test.

But statistics cannot effectively predict single event outcomes – that’s not the point, they’re aggregative. And to me baseball is more about fast twitch response, not intuition. Hence why tension plays a big performance role.

All “advanced” baseball stats have to be viewed carefully. Take BABIP for example. By not measuring HR’s, K’s, or BB’s it contains some serious performance measure skews. Used to measure the “luckiness” of a hitter or pitcher, these inherent skews are a concern, but over large samples they maintain a measure of meaning. Misuse is the key problem.