Could Pedro Alvarez be the Pick?

by R.J. Anderson on May 22, 2008 8:22 PM EDT Comment 17 comments

Lost in the Price shuffle today was the tidbit from Buster Olney that the Rays are considering Buster Posey or Pedro Alvarez for the top pick in the upcoming draft which seemingly conflicts with the reports that Posey/Tim Beckham were the final two contenders. It's probably not a good thing, but my first instinct was this is seemingly a negotiation tactic, not however, with Posey or Beckham, but rather to get Pedro signed at a more reasonable rate than expected. Of course Alvarez' agent is Scott Boras making this far less likely and despite the Carlos Pena deal there aren't exactly hugs and kisses floating around on either side of the fence which seems to suggest that a scare tactic isn't the way to go for the Rays or Boras.

So here's the poll, what do you think the odds are that Pedro Alvarez ends up a Ray?

via www.vandymania.com

Poll

Pedro Alvarez will be a Ray, I'm ___% sure of it.

99.9%

17 votes

75%

22 votes

50%

49 votes

25%

111 votes

0%

45 votes

244 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 17 comments

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Comments

Hope so...

by rglass44 on May 22, 2008 10:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Back on Topic

I hope not, I know no one is ever automatic but I’m confident in saying that Longo is our third baseman of the future so why draft Alvarez and move him to what I assume would be first (when Pena leaves or stops hitting 30-40 HR). I’d rather them just draft Smoak if they are going in that direction. I would rather them go with the young SS Beckham though. I think we are pretty solid right now with position players and we have the pitching depth to trade for one or two guys if we need to over the next few years. Beckham has a ton of upside and it would be a lot easier having a High School kid change positions than a College guy. I know Brignac is really good too but Beckham would be 4-5 years down the road and a lot could change by then.

by Dbullsfan on May 22, 2008 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Alvarez

His bat plays at any position on the field. I assume he’d be able to make the move to RF, but you don’t pass on the best bat bebecause he’d be blocked. Ifthe rays believe one of the other 2 projects better than so be it.

by rglass44 on May 22, 2008 11:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

is it just me

or is Scott Boras “not exactly hugs ‘n kisses” with every team. I knew no one really liked him, but it seems funny how many GMs absolutely hate negotiating with him.

On with the (good) youth movement!

by aet15 on May 23, 2008 12:26 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not saying we'll

win in this case, but we’ve beat Boras before. He didn’t want Pena to sign that deal. He wanted more. Friedman can handle him.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 23, 2008 8:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Best Bat

This is what a writer (Matt Blood) from Baseball America wrote today in his chat: “Ability wise, Alvarez is projected to be a better hitter than Braun and he could probably suffice in the outfield…”
If this is true Alvarez > Braun , why not pick Alvarez. We don’t have a long term solution for Right-field. I would love to have a Braun-like bat in right-field even if his defense is below average. It would cost more money to sign a free agent or trade for a Jason Bay than pay Alvarez’s asking price.
Who makes the greatest difference:
Posey>Navarro
Alvarez> Unknown?

by hellickson on May 23, 2008 12:52 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

All things being equal, he would be my pick.. although this is while seeing very little info on Tim Beckham.

Longlorious.

by RATW on May 23, 2008 1:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully he learned from the A-Rod debacle

and also realizes the value of having a hot prospect on a truly up-and-coming team.

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on May 23, 2008 7:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think you should ever be using the #1 overall pick on someone simply because they have an unblocked path to the Bigs. Use it on the best player available regardless of position. He can always be moved to another position or traded when the time is right. Great hitters will find a way into the lineup.

Look at it this way, the Yankees weren’t deterred from going after the best SS in baseball despite the fact they had that position locked down with Jeter.

by floridaroar on May 23, 2008 8:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Go with the Best Plalyer Available.

That said, I have a gut feeling the Rays will go on a bender with Beckham the Younger.

by TampaMet on May 23, 2008 9:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pedro versus Posey

If the desire is for Power then I think we will select Pedro, and I can easily see that thinking because another power bat would really help us and I don’t see another power bat that we have coming in the next 2 years from our system that we can count on to deliver. Pedro can fit right in as a RF or could DH or provide insurance at 1B. His power potential is often compared to Manny Ramirez with a little less batting average but with the clutch hitting capabilities. Not a bad comparison if he develops as many think he will.

If the desire is for a safe pick to fit one of our organizational weaknesses then Posey will be selected and I can see that as well. If it comes down to either Pedro or Posey then either one will be fine with me, if I had to guess then I would say that Pedro Alvarez will be the one based exclusively on his bat and power potential.

SC raysfan

by SC raysfan on May 23, 2008 10:58 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Really

There’s no way to lose here. We either get a second straight No. 1 overall pick from teh greatest university EVAH!1!!1 or we get an extremely athletic catcher who can hit. IMO, not a bad choice. I look forward to seeing how things unfold in two weeks.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on May 23, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The more I read...

the more I hope its one of Alvarez or Beckham. I mean you don’t take a Yadier Molina or Mike Napoli 1:1. Nobody sees this guy as a Wieters or Mauer. Its easier to find a league average catcher than a potential middle-of-the order bat. If its Beckham then I assume the NDRO sees some kind of potential offensive development out of Beckham. To me he sounds like a good defensive SS with a decent bat and not a whole lot of speed. I just hope that they don’t let the Boras factor deter them because I think that would be a huge mistake. What’s a couple of million if it comes down to the difference between a couple of nice defensive players who are league average at their position at the plate versus a middle of the order bat?

by rglass44 on May 23, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The contention I have

With your remark is that I don’t think Posey shapes up to be a league average catcher. I don’t think the Rays make that pick under that assumption. Obviously Navarro makes picking Posey far less necessary from an organizational standpoint, assuming current trends hold. But I think Posey can stand on his own as a player. He will be cheaper to sign, he’s more developed than is Beckham (valuable for a team expecting a window of opportunity to contend), and he is very athletic. We aren’t talking about some slouch here. I think he shapes up to be an above-average catcher at worst, with good or very good the expectation. He has the versatility to go elsewhere if necessary as well, and I don’t think you can discount the value of that. But I don’t think Posey is a league average guy at all. He seems very comparable athletically to Mauer, with obviously a worse bat.

I don’t know. I’ve just gotten to the point where I don’t really care who this team picks. For as much as I can posture so as to seem enlightened on these people, I’m not. I don’t follow them, and what I do hear is filtered through other information sources. I’m confident in the team’s scouting department and the options available with the first overall pick.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on May 23, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"For as much as I can posture so as to seem enlightened on these people, I’m not. I don’t follow them, and what I do hear is filtered through other information sources. I’m confident in the team’s scouting department and the options available with the fir

Agreed, on this.

But from everything I understand, I just see Posey as the safe pick. Which, most people agree, is the wrong pick at 1:1. Signability can not be a concerm! I think your right that Posey profiles as an above-average catcher, but that is at best the 7th hitter in the lineup. I just think you sacrifice a lot at the plate if you choose Posey because he will be a good or even great defensive catcher. Most things I’ve seen project 10-15 homers and a 280 average. While that is good for a solid defensive catcher, it isn’t an all-star. I think you take a guy that has all-star potential 1 overall.

by rglass44 on May 23, 2008 4:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

See

I think his average projects much higher than that. I honestly don’t have a favorite player in this draft and am not saying we should take him, but he should hit for a very high average. Posey has a very quick short swing that doesn’t provide much power like you said, but does provide a very high contact rate. He projects as a .300+ hitter in the show.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on May 23, 2008 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he really does end up hitting 300+

I think it would be a good pick, but I have seen more projections lower than that. Maybe they were just offering more of a 50% projection. As athletic as he is, if he hits 300 w/ 15 homers and 25 doubles it would be a good pick. I would still rather have Ryan Braun though (who Alvarez has been compared to) even if he is somewhat a defensive liability. Maybe we could trade Navi for LaPorta if we draft Posey though and that would provide a quality bat…

by rglass44 on May 23, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs