Walking 4+ per nine is not a formula for success.

Because we are not talking about a linear function…i.e. a pitcher who walks one per nine will not see a big difference if they suddenly walk one, where a pitcher who already gives up a fair share of base-runners will feel an exponential sting with each additional walk he gives up.

Can’t you just enjoy a win every once in a while. This “debate” makes me long for the ESPN message boards.

Firstly, his point had nothing to do with Sonnanstine. Your remark was entirely irrelevant. Secondly, Sonnanstine didn’t have an even 5 ERA, so your six of ten, four of ten assertion is not based on his statistics at all. I’m not really sure what your point was here at all. Are you trying to articulate the point that walking batters is good?

First of all, even if you think that Sonnanstine’s high ERAs will continue, you can find exceptions to any theory in baseball. It isn’t an absolute game. That doesn’t make the overriding point invalid.

The fact of the matter is, most pitchers will not succeed walking four or more batters per nine innings, and if they do, it likely won’t continue year-in and year-out. Do you dispute that contention? If you don’t, then your remarks concerning this topic were completely and totally unnecessary, and it proves that the only reason you responded was to continue some petulant, non-existent debate.

Garza was walking just shy of 4 per 9 (3.89), I’m saying you can’t expect him to go out, walk four, and only allow four hits. That’s about 5 hits per 9, last year only Chris Young was under 6.5 hits per 9. We know that both Jackson/Garza are major league pitchers, and that major league starters allow more than 6 hits per nine, so when you combine that with 4 walks per nine that’s 10 baserunners per 9 innings, and that’s a generous estimate. The improved defense helps, but it’s not going to make these guys superhuman, they’re going to give up hits, and giving up extra walks is eventually going to bite them.

As for the best time to make the point, again, it didn’t show up tonight, but when it does nobody should be caught off guard.

Im definitely not a big Garza fan but this makes no sense to me. You have to judge each pitcher seperately, you cant just say because on average 70% of the timme that guys walk 4 players per game on averageo ver the course of an entire season than that means anything in the way of Matt Garza.

What? Yes you can. You can take an absurd risk and become complacent in a walk rate of 4 per nine, and assume that success will last at that rate. And indeed, it might. In the short run. It just will eventually blow up in your face at some point, and you can address it then. If you want to stay behind the curve, that’s your problem. Matt Garza isn’t going to defy the principle that walks=bad forever.

First of all, he hasnt shown that he will walk 4 guys per game over the course of a season, we are going off of 1 game tonight. One game in which he went 7+ scoreless innings. Not exactly the best time to make this point.

No, we’re not. You’re very wrong. He’s walking 3.89 for the season, and he has walked more batters than he has struck out. R.J. wouldn’t have made this post if his poor control here was an anomaly. That it isn’t was the problem. The amount of runs given up in this particular outing is entirely irrelevant to the overarching concern. The post merely pointed out that this start followed a previous trend, and that continuing to follow that trend will not often yield results such as this. The timing of the post does not matter. It is important to keep a greater perspective in both good times and bad.

Secondly, I dont care what 70% of pitchers do. Garza and Jackson have better "stuff" than 90% of the league, so I think low hit rates are sustainable.

That is completely and totally irrelevant, and the fact that both have struggled in the past despite their “stuff” should alert you to the fallacies of your point. Daniel Cabera is in the same boat. He has better “stuff” than both pitchers, and he is seeing sustained success for the first time only this year because he lowered his walk rate. If you want to take the risk that these hit rates are sustainable, that’s your problem. I would very much recommend against it, and I think that the great balance of evidence would suggest that my concerns are valid. But you’re entitled to your opinion. Hopefully the team and Garza won’t be as complacent.

Plus they have other advantages over the "average" pitcher. Such as, low SLG % against and the ability to get out of runners on situations without allowing advancement of said runners, due to said great "stuff"

Again, this isn’t being compared against some mythical “average” pitcher. This is against pitchers of all types, including your touted “great stuff” guys. Again, if you’re satisfied with poor walk rates and you think he can maintain success with a 1:1 K/BB, that’s your problem. Go ahead.

Thankfully that walk on Markakis didn’t bite us as it could’ve.

And was sitting about 12 rows behind the plate. Sometimes its better to be lucky than good!

The ball seemed to hit the line. Unless Herrera has access to a closer angle it would be foolish of him to dismiss it as a foul ball.

Well I’m not necessarily saying it’ll be the walks. I’m saying it’ll be a combination of getting hits falling all along with the extra baserunner or two that will hurt him.

But hopefully we have two outliers.

But he needs to sharpen his control. Again, you can cite exceptions in any given year. I thought that was a given, but apparently it merits an inflammatory post to confirm it. However you’d be hard-pressed to find pitchers who are able to succeed with walk problems such as this year-in and year-out. That’s why it makes sense to emphasize a correction of whatever is causing these problems. You can either revel in his success and become complacent in it, and wait for the inevitable blow-up to come, or you can stay ahead of the curve and rectify the problem. I would advocate doing the latter, but maybe I’m crazy.

Brandon Webb and Roy Halladay have successful peripherals to back up their good “stuff”. Garza and Jackson do not. Their success is, coincidentally, non-existent. Sonny’s ERA this year is lower than Jackson’s career mark. Please stop pretending that there is some wide gulf of superiority between the two. Jackson has failed multiple times before. Garza and Sonnanstine both have small sample sizes from which to judge.

If your point was that Webb and Halladay are better than Sonnanstine, congratulations. You slay me. I bow down to your ability to prove mind-numbingly obvious points. Your assertion that Jackson and Garza are in their class is, at best, disingenuous. They’re not in anywhere close to the same class, because Halladay and Webb are far more successful pitchers. The reason they succeed is because they exploit their “stuff” to their advantage and get ground balls and walks. Those two aren’t the most nasty pitchers in terms of their repertoire, but they utilize what they do have to their advantage. Their success is founded upon good peripheral statistics that reflect this.

Again, that’s all peripheral stats are. They merely reflect how well pitchers are pitching. They don’t have any inherent bias against pitchers with good stuff. They actually articulate the ones that take advantage of that stuff quite well. Different guys have different approaches. Sonnanstine has a different approach than those two. Obviously he has far less room for error in terms of balls within the strikezone than the other two. He compensates by tightening his control. Garza and Jackson don’t need to tighten their control nearly as much, but they do need to maintain at least respectable rates or else they will be failure’s company.

I’m not sure how this even turned into “insert favorite pitcher” vs Sonnanstine anyways. That R.J. or I like Sonnanstine’s style is not indicative of the fact that we like him more than Garza, or any other pitcher for that matter. These comparisons are stupid. Each pitcher needs to be evaluated based on their own merits, not someone else’s. R.J. is actually a very big Garza booster, far more so than I am, and we’ve actually argued on that point. He’s been driving the train on him since the beginning. Pointing out a deficiency in his game isn’t indicative of a dislike.

I happen to agree with you. Garza will be a better pitcher than Sonny long-term. I don’t think you will find many that take issue with that assertion. But your other points are so wrong that they almost don’t even merit discussion, but I will humor you.

On Dice-K, congratulations for judging a pitcher a success based on one quarter of a season’s numbers. See how far that takes you. He’s walking 5.7 per nine innings. You really think he can sustain success at that rate? BTW, his walk troubles this year are also a complete anomaly. He has no similar rate whatsoever in his recent history, so this point is likely moot.

On Kazmir, you’re wrong again. Kazmir’s worst career K:BB was 1.74. Garza’s is currently under one. No comparison. He strikes out far more to compensate.

On Webb, you are also wrong. Actually, you’re wrong on multiple fronts. His career K/9 is 7.27, which is exceptional. His career BB/9 is 2.99, which is also very good. He doesn’t walk that many batters at all. He is an example completely and totally unhelpful to your overall point. He also gets groundballs at a far greater rate than does Garza, helping mitigate whatever residual issues there are.

Keep calling Sonny a BP pitcher. That point is irrelevant to this thread, for the one-millionth time. I think that the fact that you all continue to use him as an example whenever any greater philosophical debate comes up is proof that you can’t back up your disorganized and illogical assertions on their own merits.

This “unintentional intentional walk” keeps getting brought up like it changes the point. It still a walk, and his ratio is unacceptable with or without that walk.

Secondly, the comparison to Cabrera is valid only for previous seasons. You don’t need that many strikeouts if you similarly limit your walks, as Cabera has been doing. He can pitch to contact and be very successful due to his stuff, and he is finally seeing success this year because his walk rate is far lower. Cabrera struggled when he had a poor K:BB. He is not currently struggling because he doesn’t have a poor K:BB. If Garza can ride his two-seamer to success, that’s fine. The optimal word is, however, success. Success that is measurable and verifiable through peripheral statistics.

I made that argument in this post? All I said is I hate giving up walks. I never mentioned Sonnanstine, Shields, or Kazmir. I don’t want our pitchers walking above league averages, why is this not a unanimous given?

Stop putting Garza and Jackson in the same category as Kazmir. They’re both far inferior pitchers at the moment, and Jackson has been for some time. Again, this Sonnanstine/Jackson comparison is a straw man argument. That wasn’t the point of the post. Look at the multitude of outings in which Jackson got hit hard last year and tell me he doesn’t get hit as hard. Hell, look at the few outings this year in which Jackson gets hit hard and tell me it doesn’t happen. To argue some perceived gulf of superiority between the two is absurd and speaks volumes about the argument we are currently having. Again, Kazmir is not in the same category as Jackson at all. He is far better. Same with Garza. Garza will be a better pitcher than Sonnanstine, I don’t know why that keeps being brought up. Of course, that is predicated upon him keeping his walks in order. Same with Jackson. They both can be better pitchers than Sonnanstine, if they keep their walk rates at a reasonable level.

Obviously Sonnanstine benefits from an expanded strike zone. I don’t think that it is a requisite for success though. He’s gotten beaten up just as much as Jackson has in the past though, so it isn’t like he is infinitely more hittable.

As for your last statement, you are missing the point totally. His point doesn’t require that sort of vacuum scenario at all. You are very wrong. The fact of the matter is, a 4.91 H/9 is not sustainable. That’s what Garza’s success was predicated on last night. That is absurdly low. Low hit rates are the company of luck and they are bound to fluctuate, certainly far higher than that in the future. When it does, you better be putting people away on strikes or not walking a ton of batters to compensate. Garza has so far done neither at any point this season, which is the point of concern.