Loaiza DFA

by RAYS44 on May 24, 2008 1:36 PM EDT Comment 19 comments

I think loaiza would be a great pick up for the rays...he would come at a cheap cost and be a great asset to a team that needs just one more good arm in that bullpen or even at the bottom of the rotation, need be. wHAT does everyone else think? This could also be a chance to get rid of Glover, who has done nothing to help our ever improving bullpen, I wouldnt mind seeing him go. what does everyone think?

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I think he could be a good option

But I have 3 concerns:

1. He has given up an outrageous number of home runs considering the park he pitches in.

2. He has yet to show the ability to work out of the ‘pen effectively.

He has been a strong pitcher over his career, and his recent struggles may have been the result of injury. If he’s healthy, it might be worth a shot.

by GomesSweetGomes on May 24, 2008 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't imagine a more streaky pitcher in baseball history

It’s feast or famine for him on a year-by-year basis.

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on May 25, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

third concern was health

I need to edit my posts better

by GomesSweetGomes on May 24, 2008 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fourth concern: He's hitting 84 as a righty.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's only walking 1.88 BB/9 this year and has a career 2.59 BB/9 walk rate.

Who cares about velocity, as long as he doesn’t walk batters. Loaiza is walking two less batters per nine innings than Jackson or Garza. I think with our defense he would be better than Gazra or Jackson and allow us trade them one of for a right-fielder. With Shields, Sonnanstine, and Loaiza we would be one of the best at preventing walks.

by hellickson on May 24, 2008 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sonnanstine sits at 87, Shields at 90, both use their fastballs less than 50% of the time. Loaiza uses his more than 50% and sits at 84.

Fail harder next time.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So velocity matters?

I thought only K/BB mattered? Why do you teach me to value K/BB and ignore stuff, then insult me for trying to apply what I’ve learned? You act very unprofessionally and I don’t think it suits this blog very well. Your attitude should approve, or you’ll continue to create animosity between you and your readers. I think most are understanding of what you preach, its just your negativity and dogmatic approach rubs readers the wrong way.

by hellickson on May 24, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I respect your opinion, and your point is well-taken.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I meant improve, not approve.

Though I use K/BB as a guideline when evaluating young pitchers and especially prospects, its just not interesting or fun to read about after a watching Garza pitch a shut-out. I mean can you write about things more in detail, what is causing his low-strike-out rate: not throwing his 4-steamer, is his curve & slider really a plus pitch, pitch selection predictability, injury, etc. Can you offer analysis beyond K/BB rates, which has become as easy to understand as WHIP, and ERA+. We know good K/BB is a trend for success with some expections such as David Bush, etc.. Why is IsoSlug againsts ignored when evaluating pitchers?

by hellickson on May 24, 2008 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's not.

I’ve spent the past few days building a database for my BPIP post upcoming. It’s essentially SLG% for pitchers.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry for the typos, exceptions not expections

Plus a K/BB rate has higher value with a very low walk-rate, but a pitcher with a very high strike-out rate above 10 and slightly above average walk-rate of about 4 is a better pitcher than a 3 K/BB with a below average strikeout-rate. So not all K/BB are equal, it depends on the strike-out rate and should be evaluated in context. I think I read that from post from Tangotiger.

by hellickson on May 24, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At that point you evaluate hit/HR rates.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're right... K/BB are not equal.

I’m not a fan of K/BB because I don’t think it tells enough of the story. As you stated, there are certain benchmarks that matter. When I used to run spreadsheets on this stuff I found that a K rate over 7 and a walk rate under 3 are pretty much the benchmarks. Pitchers who strike out at least 7/9 and walk under 3/9 are generally pretty successful. The farther away from each the better the pitcher is. Peavy showed some pretty extreme K/BB the year before his big breakout. Sheets and Santana are also pitchers that used to be the absolute best. Carlos Silva was always a guy with great K/BB just because he never walked anyone.

The attacks on RJ are generally unfair. Stats are what they are and for the most part any analysis based on them is just a hypothesis of what probably will happen. Jackson has definitely been a little lucky, though he is a better pitcher than last year. It’s possible that there stuff is so good it causes batters to hit infield flies over 15% of the time, I just find that unlikely.

The one thing about Sonny is that he is in uncharted territory. No pitcher in the history of baseball posted the K/9 and BB/9 numbers that Sonny did last year and had an ERA as high as him. It wasn’t even close. I think his biggest problem this year is the drop in K’s. This year he is at 5.1K/1.7BB, last year he was at 6.8K/1.8BB. A jump back near that level should help stabalize his ERA to a little closer to four. Not great, but not a bad inning eating # 5.

by tallyray on May 24, 2008 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NOOOO

“That all I have to say about that” -

I wan to say thank you to all the men and women who have served, will serve, and are serving in our countries military services

by thebaddancingraysfan on May 24, 2008 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So velocity matters? I thought only K/BB mattered?

lol I could walk less than 2 batters per 9 innings, does that mean you could milk me Focker? (sorry for the appropriate, yet odd ‘Meet the Parents’ analogy)

Another number junkie. How about this, WATCH THE FREAKING GUY PITCH! It’s not hard. Just watch.

I’ve always liked Loaiza. Aside from the fact that he didnt pitch last year, 2 years ago I remember watching the guy in September and he was unhittable. Very sharp. I planned on using him as a sleeper cadidate in fantasy baseball last year. I think I even drafted him in the later rounds, but he didnt pitch last year

I dont see any need for him. If we need a starter, which we dont, callup Talbot, Mason or Niemann or put Hammel back out there. It makes no sense to sign some over the hill pitcher with aerm problems when it will only block one of our young guy’s development. If we want a RP, callup Salas or Balfour

by blazinrayz on May 24, 2008 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Salas or Balfour

I wish.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 24, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can’t see how Loaiza’s injured arm is going to be a better option for the Rays than anyone they have on hand. If they really want a starter they can bring up Niemann or Talbot (who is finally starting to get it together at Durham). If they want a new reliever Salas and Balfour are down there. Glancing up at the last couple of posts that I only skimmed before replying I see that Blazinrayz said basically the exact same thing, so I could just saw I agree with him.

Until they’ve cycled through the guys at AAA and found them insufficient (and I imagine that they’d get what they needed from among that group anyway) then there’s no real use in bringing in a guy who is probably toast.

by Jim Wisinski on May 25, 2008 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The attacks on RJ are generally unfair.

you tell me this right after you explain to us that you make spreadsheets for baseball? that was the worst idea I ever heard. There are so many variables that change from pitcher to pitche rmaking it impossible to accurately determine anythign worth while by charting K:9 and BB:9

Of course good pitchers are goign to show there to be a trend in those numbers. Thats like saying, well guys who are good looking AND have money tend to get hot chicks. I dont need a spreadsheet to tell me that. Also, laying it out on a spreadsheet wont help me predict the guy who is short and chubby with a great sense of humor and pulls a dime piece.

Just because all roses are red doesnt mean all things that are red are roses.

by blazinrayz on May 27, 2008 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs