Is BJ's Lack of Power a Problem?
Last season, BJ Upton became the superstar type of player that the team has waited for him to become. He hit 24 homeruns last year to assist him on his way to an .894 OPS. His breakout season has given fans expectations of a power hitter to bat in our three-hole. However, Bossman Jr. only has 3 homeruns to this point, which ties him with Shawn Riggans. Riggans has reached that mark in over 125 less at-bats.
Although he hasn't been hitting the homeruns, he has still been driving the ball into the gaps. If you extrapolate his current data to the amount of at-bats he had last season, he would finish with 37 doubles. These 37 doubles would be 12 more than he hit last season. Homeruns would be a welcomed addition to his repertoire this season, but he is still slugging the ball over .430. Some of his decrease in power might be explained by his shoulder problems. Even though he insists it did not bother him, you could see a noticeable difference in his swing after the injury. He seems to be back to full health now, but for a week or two after that injury he seemed to be laboring at the plate. Another reason may simply be poor luck, as his homerun/fly ball ratio has come down to 6.4% after 19.5% last season.
Even if his slugging has gone down he has improved his game in other areas. He has become one of the best guys in all of baseball at getting on-base. He currently leads the team with his .398 mark, and is 7th in all of the American League. The main reason for this has been due to a improvement on an already great plate approach. His biggest problem last season was his strikeout rate. Striking out as much as he does isn't really an issue when you are getting on base at such a high rate, but he has decreased his strikeout percentage from 32.5% to 25.3%. This decrease in strikeouts has lead to an increase in walks as his BB% has risen from 12.1% to 14.0%.
His ability to get on-base combined with the teams aggressive nature has also led to higher stolen base totals. He is on pace to steal 35 paces, which would be a big improvement of his current career high of 22. Although he has been suspect at best with his baserunning, he has still allowed for his natural athleticism to carry him towards success.
To answer the title of the post, you can't really say his lack of power is too big of a problem. He is bound to pick up some more homers, but even if he doesn't he is still having a good season. He would clearly be a better player if he could hit some more longballs, but even without them he stands out as a great player. With Pena seeming to come out of his slumber, this should lead to BJ seeing even more good pitches to hit, which should only inflate his numbers more.
0 recs |
13 comments
Comments
B.J. is a really good hitter.
He waits on his pitch no matter when it comes:
BJ has swung at the first pitch 25 times, 11 H 1.000 OPS
CC 35 times 10 H .727 OPS
Pena 25 times 9 H .767 OPS
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on
May 26, 2008 11:54 AM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Lies
There is no way BJ is better than CC at swinging 1st pitch. Way to skew the numbers to prove your point.
mvn.com/mlb-rays
by Tommy Rancel on
May 26, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
I think
you need to explain that assertion.
by bobr on
May 26, 2008 12:06 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Sarcasm.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on
May 26, 2008 12:07 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Correct
I was only joking.
mvn.com/mlb-rays
by Tommy Rancel on
May 26, 2008 12:08 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
The shoulder injury might be part of it, hard to say. It’s also important to remember that his numbers are better than they look due to offense, particularly power, being down across the league so far. His SLG+ last season was 121 and if the league average was the same it would be 103 this year but it’s actually 110. His EqA is actually UP one point from 2007, thanks to his slightly higher OBP, higher volume of stolen bases, and reduction in strikeouts.
by Jim Wisinski on
May 26, 2008 2:57 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Not really a problem...
It’d be more concerning if BJ wasn’t getting on base. As you said, his HR/FB ratio is down and he is still hitting doubles. I expect to see a 6-7 homerun month and him finish around 20-25. If he can finish with an OBP between .375-.400 than that would be perfectly fine.
by tallyray on
May 26, 2008 4:05 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
BJ will be fine.
I want to say thank you to all the men and women who have served, will serve, and are serving in our countries military services
by thebaddancingraysfan on
May 26, 2008 5:20 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm least worried about Upton
Longlorious.
by RATW on
May 26, 2008 11:53 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
BJ is just fine
While I haven’t done the research myself, I have heard that some players that experience a power driven rookie season often lose some of their HR’s to the 2B’s column. As long as Iwamura and Crawford continue to get on base in front of BJ his high BA and solid doubles power should continue to result in lots of RBI and the offense will continue to flourish.
What is a bit more concerning for the Rays is Crawford’s OBP and poor power numbers. His HR total is pretty much on par with last season’s but his 2B’s are way down. His low OBP is purely a result of his low average, as his walk rate hasn’t been all that high over the past few seasons. His BABIP is currently right around last year’s norm, and last year he benefited from an extraordinarily high .375 BABIP, so it appears that he is more of a .285 hitter than .310. Unless Crawford starts taking a few more walks and starts hitting for a little more power, his season won’t be as productive as his last two.
by dakoose on
May 27, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Completely Agree
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on
May 27, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Careful, you guys are treading closely to "hater" label territory
Longlorious.
by RATW on
May 27, 2008 6:24 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Oh no the hater police are coming
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on
May 27, 2008 6:51 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs













