OBP: On Base Problems

by Matt Bishoff on May 3, 2008 8:30 AM EDT

Coming into this season, if you were told the Rays leadoff and second hitter would have OBP's of .296 and .313 respectively, you most likely would have written off the season as another failure. This is the production we have gotten thus far from Akinori Iwamura and Carl Crawford, yet we are in first place in the AL East. While the pitching has been able to carry the team this far, the Rays will need much more production from the top of the lineup if they plan on hanging around at the front of the pack all season.

Starting with Aki, looking at his .202/.296/.248 clip might cause some fans to go crazy, but he has done some things right. In comparison to last year, Aki's BB% has risen from 10.6% to 12.1% and his K% has slightly decreased as well. If his BB% has increased then his substantial drop in OBP must be due to his BABIP. His LD% has slightly decreased, but not to the point that it is substantially different. Thus far this season, his xBABIP is .310 while his BABIP is .253. Now compare those numbers to last season where his xBABIP was .322 and his BABIP was .359, and we can see that he has certainly been unlucky this year. This also shows that he was quite lucky last season and that we cannot expect for him to get on-base as he did last year. If we are not getting a .360 OBP guy, do we want to continue with having Aki as our leadoff hitter?

Crawford has also been a bit unlucky this season. CC's xBABIP this far is .368, while his BABIP is .321. He is only striking out 12.2% of the time, which is the lowest in his career. Last season, he struck out the most in his career (19.2%). His LD% is by far the best it has ever been in his career at 24.8%. The next closest in his career is 21.1% in 2003. All of this though, has been due to his lack of patience in the batters box. His BB% is 3.1, which is the lowest of his career. It has been mentioned by RJ that his numbers make him to be a below-average player at this point in the season. Anytime someone is posting a OBP of .313 at the 2nd spot in the order, he is performing below league average. I expect his OBP to rise a little due to better luck, but he will not be the superstar we make him out to be unless he learns to walk more. As fans we get caught up in the flashy plays that superstar athletes that players like Crawford make, but in reality the boring things like taking pitches are the difference between a superstar and Jason Tyner.

We can expect to see better production from both Aki and CC as the season progresses and as their luck progresses as well. However, I can't help but wonder if Aki will ever be the leadoff guy we want him to be. Crawford will be an above-average outfielder by seasons end, but whether he will be a "superstar" is the real question.

0 recs | Comment 9 comments

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

And then there's Longoria who's been spectacular.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 3, 2008 10:03 AM EDT 0 recs

Dear DRB staff,

It seems that many of you guys are writing more and more posts which include stats like ‘xBABIP’ etc leaving me to feel a little behind the times. I assume that these terms are sabermetric (or from moneyball or some other book that I should read but haven’t yet). It appears that I’m not the only reader who may struggle with these concepts evidenced by some of the debates I’ve read recently (EJax being lucky/better this season, etc). I’d really enjoy understanding what a lot of you guys are talking about and I’m sure the newer members of the bay would too. Could you guide us to an online source, book (or maybe even create a link on the site) that may help us out?

thanks,
-TBB

by tropbeachbum on May 3, 2008 11:37 AM EDT 0 recs

I'll do my best

Hardball times has a good quick glossary to show the formulas for how a lot of these newfangled stats are calculated.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/

As for BABIP, basically it measures a Batter’s average on balls in play. However, that is a little bit of a misnomer, because according to the formula, a foul out would count as a ball in play. The major league average BABIP is usually between .290 and .300. This is not too surprising, as we’d expect almost everyone to be a .300 hitter if they never struck out.

Why is the stat an important tool? From my (admittedly glib) understanding of the topic, several studies have shown that when batters have unusually high or low BABIP’s, this success or failure rate is typically unsustainable. There are a few outliers like Ichiro, but for the most part, if a guy is hitting .350 or higher on balls-in-play, this is usually more the product of luck than skill, and they are due for a fall. Conversely, a guy with a low BABIP is usually more likely than not to raise their level of performance as a few bounces will eventually go their way.

by GomesSweetGomes on May 3, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

By The Way

It is really good to see people trying to learn some of these stats. Too often, people new to the area seem to entrench themselves in a “stats” or “scouts” camp, making their decisions on whether the numbers are useful before taking the time to leanr what they say.

by GomesSweetGomes on May 3, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

This should help

Here

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 3, 2008 12:11 PM EDT 0 recs

I'd still like to know more about xbabip

From what I gather, you take a players line drive rate to determine what their BABIP should be, and then subtract what it actually is to figure out how lucky or unlucky they are?

by GomesSweetGomes on May 3, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

What I do

Is take the LD%, turn it into an average (so 20% goes to .20) and add it to .12 in order to get the xBABIP. That would be a .320 xBABIP, which gives you a general idea of where the player’s BABIP should be. You can go through the standard deviation methods to get a closer scale on the range, but those are the basics, and from there you can find the hits +/- by simply doing:

xBABIPLine Drives (found on fangraphs page) – BABIPLine Drives

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on May 3, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

if you haven’t read moneyball, it’s a good quick read. anyway, i recommend anyone read at least the essay by voros mccracken in the book or the section on chad bradford

by websterjtc on May 3, 2008 12:43 PM EDT 0 recs