Leadoff Solution
After scouring the roster and looking at outside options, I think I have found someone who I think could step in and fill the leadoff role for the team. As I have stated before, I do not see Aki being the leadoff hitter that we need him to be, which I will go into even further in a post later this week. I propose that we move Evan Longoria to the leadoff role for the time being.
This idea probably won't be popular with most, but it could add a lot more life to the top of our lineup. While losing his slugging from the five-spot would hurt, it would be more than made up by the added value of his on-base skills at the top of the order. Having a contact hitter like Carl Crawford hitting second makes it even more important that the team put somebody in front of him who can get on-base.
So far this season Longoria has an OBP of .345, which would be a welcomed improvement over Aki's .302 mark. Longoria's numbers suggest his OBP should only continue to improve. I hate to overdue BABIP, but to this point his BABIP is .280 while his xBABIP is .365. This suggests he has been very unlucky and will only continue to improve on his OBP. His minor league numbers suggests he could do better in this category as well, as his OBP was .402 during his time spent in AA/AAA.
This would also give the Rays the opportunity to move Eric Hinske, who has been our best hitter by a good margin thus far, to the five-spot. This would give the Rays a lineup that could feature a .350+ OBP hitter and Crawford, followed by three hitters slugging .429, .421, and .581. This could be a front half of the lineup with the potential to put up a ton of runs.
Here is my projected lineup based on this shift:
- Evan Longoria 3B
- Carl Crawford LF
- B.J. Upton CF
- Carlos Pena 1B
- Eric Hinske DH
- Dioner Navarro C
- Akinori Iwamura 2B
- Gabe Gross RF
- Jason Bartlett SS
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I like it.
I was thinking the same thing last night, with the differences being Aki ahead of Navarro. I’m still not convinced Aki isn’t a good fit at the leadoff spot though… I think he needs a little more time.
by floridaroar on
May 7, 2008 8:41 AM EDT
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Bad timing?
The last few games it seems as though Aki is coming out of his funk while Evan is pressing. I would suggest moving Evan down a spot or two to take the pressure off for awhile. I like the 9-1 combo of Barlett (who also looks much better at the plate) and Aki for now.
Jamie DeLuca
by JDeLuca on
May 7, 2008 9:06 AM EDT
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Wait, you forget this makes sense
and would hurt some grown men’s feelings. Two things Joe Maddon is incapable of.
by LeftRight on
May 7, 2008 9:22 AM EDT
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Cant do it
I know what you are thinking and on the surface it makes sense. but there is more to leading off than just a good OBP.
They can’t and won’t do it.
Being the leadoff hitter is the one spot in the lineup that requires a different approach at the plate (that is why CC refuses to do it). It requires a player to take pitches. To almost sacrifice himself a bit for the better of the rest of the lineup. Dirtbag would have to cut down on his swing and worry more about getting on base which risks a change in his mechanics at the plate.
We are talking about a 22-year old kid that has batted in an RBI slot his entire career. They can’t all of the sudden move him to the leadoff spot after 3 weeks in the big leagues just out of team need having never done it before. And they can’t do it if he is expected to be an RBI guy down the road. He is struggling a bit at the plate now which is just another reason that he cant be moved to a spot that will force a change in approach and then expect to move him back to an RBI spot later on and change his approach again.
your better option is Bartett who is an EXCELLENT base runner and has a .400 OBP in the past week.
by The Professor on
May 7, 2008 9:28 AM EDT
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Longoria wouldn't need to change his approach
He has 12 walks already and he missed the first bit of the season, while Bartlett has 3 BB’s in playing everyday
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on
May 7, 2008 9:32 AM EDT
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Gabe Gross: he’s due to raise his batting average; already has a .341 OBP in 85 plate appearances this season (better than Iwamura or Crawford currently and has a history of patience) despite terrible batting average; takes a ton of pitches (bad and good); decent speed; not much power lost at the bottom of the order.
Actually, I’d rather they leave Iwamura where he’s at. He’s been hitting much better of late and now is not the time to move him.
Longlorious.
by RATW on
May 7, 2008 10:07 AM EDT
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you are missing the point
it is more than walks and OBP
It is being told to take pitches EVERY at bat. it is reigning in the swing a bit for the sake of doing whatever it takes to get on base for RBI guys. RBI guys like Longoria.
this is why batting leadoff is such a big deal even though a leadoff batter only leadsoff an inning once or twice a game. it is because, the best hitters are coming. 95% of managers want their leadoff batter sacrificing themselves a bit. yes getting on base is important. but there is also the need to make the pitcher throw more pitches. to work the pitcher where 3-6 hitters don’t have to.
and i am not saying Bartlett is ideal. i am just saying more likely than Longoria.
by The Professor on
May 7, 2008 10:09 AM EDT
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line up?
Great thoughts and reads amungst the deep thinkers. Supposing Aki is moved out of the lead off spot as he should be, I’ve (we’ve, I’ll explain) toyed with the line up many times and through many bar room discussions. While eating at Beef O Brady’s after a softball game this W/E and pounding down a few pints, eh? We (softball team) agreed on the best line up top to bottom during the weekend after the “K” ratio and plate dicipline in whinerville spun out of control.
Away we go….
1- Upton – great plate dicipline, speed, hits for avg. His patience makes him a lead off hitter.
2- Crawford – We’d make him take the 1st strike by not allowing him to carry the bat to the plate until a strike is thrown. Could you imagine his numbers if he swung at strikes?
3- Hinske – A true professional hitter. Your best “hitter” bats 3rd. As of right now, it’s Hinske.
4- Pena – 46 HR’s last season, ‘nuff said.
5- Longoria – walks alot for swinging at sooooo many ba’ad pitches. But his swing is so choice. What bat speed!
6- Gomes – If Johnny, C.C. & Aki would learn patience and swing at strikes, what hitters they would be.
7- Navarro – I thought fat boy got in shape this off season? John Kruk Jr. is sure looking good at the plate.
8- Iwamura – Isn’t Brian Roberts still on the market? We need production at 2B. Aki aint the answer.
9- Bartlett – Jasons going to hit. Love his glove at SS. I like him leading off too, just change his approach batting lead off.
The BIG concern is the 2-3-4 hitters all being LH. The 6-9 hitters wouldn’t scare off too many teams. Floyd will fill in nice when he’s mended or just sign Barry already! I’ll drive the 60 miles to go watch a living legend play camera in hand! So will my entire softball team, love him or hate’m he’s an attraction!
Great pitching by Andy yesterday. What a colossal blast by “Eric the Ray”!
Best surprises: Percival, Hinske (TIE)
Biggest disappointment: Garza, Iwamura
by John 63 on
May 7, 2008 10:17 AM EDT
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iwamura is pretty much useless if he’s not batting leadoff.
by websterjtc on
May 7, 2008 10:23 AM EDT
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His 1.000 Fielding Percentage says different
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on
May 7, 2008 10:35 AM EDT
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but that 1.000 fielding percentage doesn’t include yesterday’s flip to bartlett instead of getting the DP. however, it didn’t matter because the runner was picked off the next play…
but i like aki, we need his glove. but if he’s not batting leadoff, he really doesn’t belong anywhere else except maybe 9th.
by websterjtc on
May 7, 2008 11:53 AM EDT
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time to switch hinske and pena in the lineup though? at least for now?
by websterjtc on
May 7, 2008 10:24 AM EDT
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OT: Is posey a better prospect than Weiters coming out of college? (Baltimore catcher from 07 draft)
by websterjtc on
May 7, 2008 10:31 AM EDT
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as bad as sonnanstine was yesterday, he still gutted out six innings and only threw 87 pitches. and by the rules, it was a quality start
by websterjtc on
May 7, 2008 11:56 AM EDT
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Longoria needs less pressure in his ABs
He should go down to the 6-7 hole for now which will be easy once Floyd reappears.
The guys who fit best at leadoff are probably Bartlett and Aki. They should hit 1 and 9 interchangeably. Neither are league average as leadoff hitters but both are serviceable in the long run.
Small sampling of statistics can me misleading. I prefer to look for the guy whose approach produces good ABs and scoring chances.
by ttnorm on
May 7, 2008 12:16 PM EDT
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Longoria has had great ABs, better than Aki or Bartlett
He is seeing more pitches per plate attempt and walking at higher rates than both Bartlett or Aki.
Why does he need less pressure AB’s…he has been great. Disregarding his batting average he has been very good, not to mention the balls he has hit he has been unlucky on.
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on
May 7, 2008 12:39 PM EDT
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Pitch recognition is poor
Now that the league has a scouting report on him. He needs to see more FBs while he gets his feet wet. That will happen in the 6-7 hole, it will not happen in the 1 hole.
The bigger problem is using such limited stats to make valuations but that is another topic.
by ttnorm on
May 7, 2008 11:43 PM EDT
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I agree on bad timing
Akinori Iwamura has two hits in each of the past three games. Good idea, but way too late.
Evan Longoria should stay put, with Eric Hinske moving to fourth.
by Orlando Rays on
May 7, 2008 12:20 PM EDT
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Why is it too late, cus Aki had 3 good games
Last I checked his OBP is .306
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on
May 7, 2008 12:40 PM EDT
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So you're saying Carl should go down as well, because of his .306 OBP, right?
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on
May 7, 2008 1:02 PM EDT
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Nope
CC has consistently shown that he can get on-base.
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on
May 7, 2008 1:43 PM EDT
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Aki has too, but I'll defer from going on.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on
May 7, 2008 2:04 PM EDT
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Quick changes
This is an organization that does not panic. They do not rush about changing things because of a good or bad streak. If they think Iwamura has the stuff to be a good leadoff hitter they will stick with him for a while or until they see something in his approach that indicates their initial judgment was wrong.
It doesn’t mean they won’t take advantage of Bartlett’s recent improvement, but it will not be so much because of the improvement as because they rethink their evaluation of Iwamura. The stats on his performance in the leadoff position are too scanty to be a determinant at this point.
I think it’s interesting that for two years there was a lot of criticism of Maddon for what appeared constant experimentation and alteration of player roles and lineups. Now, when the object is to establish stability, many people want constant switching of gears based on a month’s performance. My impression is that once he makes a decision, he will give it ample time to prove itself.
by bobr on
May 7, 2008 1:32 PM EDT
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AKI is a great leadoff guy.....
People get off to slow starts sometimes. He is coming out of his funk and all of you haters will be praising his patience and leadoff ability in two weeks…..Suckers
Mound Visit
by Mound Visit on
May 7, 2008 1:45 PM EDT
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In 6 less PA Aki has seen 2 more pitches than Albert Pujols
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on
May 7, 2008 1:58 PM EDT
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You can only compare El Embre to a select few....
A-Rod
Bonds
Griffy
Bert’s numbers are comparable to another Cardinal great….Stan “The Man” Musial. He is just the Dominican version.
RJ….in the begining of the year you called AKI the most “underrated” person on the Rays. Why you flippin and floppin on this guy? Should we start calling you John Kerry?
Mound Visit
by Mound Visit on
May 7, 2008 3:56 PM EDT
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I'm not flipping
I don’t want to move Aki and he’s coming around, I was demonstrating his patience, supporting your point.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on
May 7, 2008 4:00 PM EDT
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I see said the blind man
who told the deaf boy….
Mound Visit
by Mound Visit on
May 7, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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