Pre-Draft Poll and Such
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 1:25 PM EDT
58 comments
We're pretty sure Pedro Alvarez is all but out of the discussion for the Rays pick, same with Kyle Skipworth and Brian Matusz. That leaves us between Buster Posey and Tim Beckham...
The entire argument here comes down to two simple ideas:
1. Tim Beckham's ceiling is higher than Posey's. This is almost certainly a fact, and great young shortstops are hard to find.
2. Buster Posey's floor is higher than Tim Beckham's. Again, almost certainly a fact, and good young catchers are hard to find.
I'm convinced Posey is the Rays pick. Forget about the Russell Martin and Kenji Johjima comparisons for a paragraph and remember back to the Evan Longoria pick, pre-draft comparisons of Joe Randa and Aaron Hill were flying around, and with Tim Lincecum and Andrew Miller -- two players that were far sexier at the time -- still on the board the Rays went with Longoria and had him signed within hours. Some called the pick one of pure signing ability and therefore thinking with the wallet instead of the mind, and some questioned what this meant for B.J. Upton and Julio Lugo, still with the Rays at the time.
If the Rays take Posey I don't know what that means for Dioner Navarro, and frankly it shouldn't matter, the only thing that does matter is the Rays think that Buster is the more likely to reach his potential, or that they think Beckham's swing (which to my untrained eye is as ugly as Whoopi Goldberg) is unforgivable or simply not worth the hassle.
Statistically the average shortstop since 1998 has a VORP of 22 compared to the average catcher's 20. Of course you could take the absolute value route and determine that a catcher with a 30 VORP is more valuable than a shortstop with a 30 VORP, but that's all up for debate.
One thing is for certain, the Rays won't please everyone, but they will please themselves.
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not that i'm complaining,
but why have you determined that Alavarez is out of it?
by davidsmarch on Jun 1, 2008 1:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I have my reasons.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Alvarez
Is still better than both, and for the sake of this discussion, I would have STILL voted for Alvarez over either of these two choices! You may have legitimate reasons, but if Alvarez was listed in this poll, I am betting he would have the pluarlity of the votes. I for won would STILL want Alvarez, as he has the best upside in this draft, in my opinion.
Joe
by joedobr on Jun 1, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For the sake of this topic and discussion
Alvarez should have appeared as a choice. I don’t know exactly why I feel the way I do about him, maybe its his flexibility and the fact he has the best bat and the best power upside in a time frame which appears power numbers are going down. When you pick #1, it should’t be about organizational needs, but what and who is the best, period. And sorry, I feel Pedro Alvarez is that. And if the criteria is different, then maybe I need an explanation. But I believe the poll should be redone to include Alvarez’s name in it. Can you reset the poll and put Pedro’s name in it?
Joe
by joedobr on Jun 1, 2008 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Alvarez is my pick. Whether you want him to make him a choice on the poll is your perogative.
RJ Harrison even foreshawdowed they may be picking him earlier in the week. I don’t understand why you wouldn’t even make him a choice.
by Cory Alexander on Jun 1, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Because I have it on good information he's not being heavily considered.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And yet you have no proof of that.
by Cory Alexander on Jun 1, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We’ll just see, won’t we?
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You totally were wong on the Kaz Extension.
by P Brady on Jun 1, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was.
And if you want to keep playing this game why don’t you list the things I’ve been right on, otherwise you can just ignore what I offer.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any reason why he isn’t being heavily considered? Not the best talent? Money demands? Mix of both?
Longlorious.
by RATW on Jun 1, 2008 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not RJ or my source
but I’d imagine it’s a combination of bonus demand, defensive value (not much) and the fact their not sold on his bat being elite. His power is unquestionable, but what kind of average he’ll hit for is not. His plate discipline is also a little shaky.
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by Tyler on Jun 1, 2008 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why him over others...
I don’t really pay too much attention to college ball, but why is Alvarez considered that much higher than some of the other big college bats (Smoak, Alonso, etc)? He doesn’t seem to have that much to differentiate him from the others. He still seems to be riding the wave of the preseason expectations while some others have really been aided by their current performance.
by tallyray on Jun 1, 2008 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not an elite bat? He was a .400 hitter in the SEC this year, which doesn’t always translate to the pros, but geez, I can’t imagine him being a sub-.200 hitter and with unquestionable power? The K:AB is a little high, but has improved each year.
It’s all good, Posey is a good pick too. It should be no-lose.
Longlorious.
by RATW on Jun 1, 2008 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant
he could be more of a Troy Glaus type player. Not a perfect comp, but I mean a guy power, but doesn’t necessarily hit for a huge average and doesn’t play very good defense. I didn’t mean his bat wasn’t good, it obviously is. But just hit hit tool might not be elite.
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by Tyler on Jun 1, 2008 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gotcha, makes sense. Can't really argue with that.
Longlorious.
by RATW on Jun 1, 2008 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It is your perogative
No disrespect at all, but I am against the fact that he isn’t or shouldn’t be considered the top overall amateur talent, period. Bat wise, I believe is the best. If the Rays don’t consider that, well, I respect that, but I disagree. Don’t take my own misgivings the wrong way, I just feel strongly that Alvarez is better than either of the two choices. And if that choice was on the poll, I think he would win the poll.
Joe
by joedobr on Jun 1, 2008 4:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The poll is “Who do you think the Rays will take” not “Who SHOULD they take”. Hence why I didn’t include Alvarez.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know that
And I stand by what I said
Joe
by joedobr on Jun 1, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should or will
Really nitpicky over the intent here…I want them to take Alvarez, you are coming from a position of knowledge that I do not have. I have learned to know that you have some insight, however, in this instance if you were to ask me, I WANT them to take Alvarez, i.e. none of the above.
Joe
by joedobr on Jun 1, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posey
was 2-3 today with 2 HR, including a grand slam.
by LeftRight on Jun 1, 2008 5:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Beckham please.
Posey is still iffy as a Catcher and I don’t like Pedro’s 1/1 K/BB ratio
by P Brady on Jun 1, 2008 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If by “iffy as a catcher”, you mean the best catcher in all of college baseball, then yes he’s a tad iffy.
I’m really starting to believe that a lot of people on here must be Gator fans and can’t look past the fact that Posey plays at FSU. The kid is for real. He’s the best defensive and offensive catcher in Div 1 College baseball. If you hit .460 in the ACC, you’re a damn good hitter. He has the least amount of passed balls in the country, and people simply don’t even try to steal on him.
Beckham has a ton of potential, and if he can reach that, he’d be awesome. But Posey will be a solid, above average catcher in the bigs for years.
by nickc on Jun 1, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agrred on the defense
but hitting .460 while playing in Tally isn’t sure-fire. The sched the Noles play and the home park tend to inflate the numbers a bit. Why do you think that the two longest hitting streaks in the natioin were both by Noles in the last 10 years.
by rglass44 on Jun 3, 2008 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think that's a bit coincidental.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Welcome to the site, we're glad you've joined the community
But I have one question concerning this statement:
I’m really starting to believe that a lot of people on here must be Gator fans and can’t look past the fact that Posey plays at FSU.
What track record is there to support this assertion? I think most people here want the Rays to draft the best player available, regardless of where they come from. People have their differing opinions concerning exactly who the “best player” is, but I don’t think that it has anything to do with school affiliation.
by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 1, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't tell you how many threads on discussion boards, blogs, etc...
have been along the lines of this one.
I didn’t intend to post that as a direct reply to that poster. But from all of the scouting reports I’ve read, I haven’t heard one calling him iffy at catcher. I think Posey and Alvarez are the best options for the pick, because Tampa Bay is to the point where they can take a sure thing with the No. 1 pick.
by nickc on Jun 1, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can't speak for Cork
But I’m guessing that he was being facetious. I don’t think Posey is iffy at catcher, not at all, and I think nearly all respectable scouts agree with you. There is some disagreement on whether he should be the pick, but no one seriously is suggesting that we pass him by simply because he plays for Florida State.
by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 1, 2008 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was Devil Ray Guerera, not Cork.
And yes, I am a Gator Fan, but I do not care that Posey is FSU even I hate them. I want our #1 overall to not top out as a Josh Bard, Russell Martin type player. That is not a good value at number 1 overall.
Then you have a guy who can be Edgar Renteria with more power, or a guy with middle of the order type power and above average defense.
I’d rather have the last two.
by Cory Alexander on Jun 1, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Since
when does Alvarez play above-average defense? He’s not a good 3B at all. The scouts are saying he can stay there, but he’d be a Troy Glaus type defender. And I’d take Russell Martin everyday of the week over Edgar Renteria. Edgar Renteria with more power is Russell Martin.
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by Tyler on Jun 1, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would take a Russell Martin type player
"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC
by Matt Bishoff on Jun 2, 2008 8:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Josh Bard?!? Really?
Please tell me where you have read that Posey projects as a Josh Bard type player? Josh Bard? The same Josh Bard that was drafted in the 35th round has had few seasons of +.300 BA.
As Tyler said, Russ Martin is a guy that had a 46 VORP in his second big league season. I’d love for Posey to be Russ Martin and if he was Russ Martin he should be the first pick.
I’m in favor of Posey because I think he represents the most sure value. I may be conservative but I do think the Rays can be slightly conservative. If you have a guy that you can pick and be about 60-70% sure will be average big league catcher than that’s pretty good value. Especially considering that’s probably the floor and his ceiling would be much higher. Beckham may prove to be better but his return will probably be a little more volatile.
by tallyray on Jun 1, 2008 8:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm not conservative
and I think I’ve settled on Posey. It’s not a “safe pick” like Bryan Bullington. He projects to be a .300 hitter annually. Doesn’t strike-out, walks a lot. Has good pop, probably a mid-upper .400 SLG. That’s a star at catcher. Not to mention the fact that he’s a great athlete, with a cannon. He’s a legit #1 pick.
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by Tyler on Jun 1, 2008 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm on the Posey wagon too.
15 or so homeruns annually isn’t something you can sneeze at from a catcher’s position, especially considering most years 25 homeruns will put you in contention for the lead.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posey
Just hit another HR – 3 run jack. 4th of the day! He also threw a guy out and made a great bare handed play on a bunt. Add that with a 3.7gpa and great all around character, and he is my choice.
by LeftRight on Jun 1, 2008 9:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Posey
now hitting:
.478/.575/.912
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by Tyler on Jun 1, 2008 10:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's bondsian!
People don’t realize that Bonds actually had a big league season that was close to this.
Tools Whore
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by Tyler on Jun 1, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He walked in his final at bat
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by Tyler on Jun 1, 2008 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't say old chap?
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just for that, I'm going deep into the archives...
Longlorious.
by RATW on Jun 1, 2008 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Awesome.
I don’t know where you get these, but please, keep them coming.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 1, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
From at least a few years ago. Don't remember why.
Longlorious.
by RATW on Jun 1, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To clear a few things up on Posey
The scout who compared him to Josh Bard (on ESPN.com), should be fired. Posey has a far better bat and arm at this stage of his career than I have ever seen from Bard.
In fact, I hardly ever listen to what scouts say, as they are so often completely wrong about a player’s talent level. Here are a few things they have said about Posey:
10-15 HRs: He has 24 so far this year (including 5-6 that are over 450 feet – I’ve seen them, I know). The ball comes off his bat like no other college ballplayer I have ever seen. Some say his swing is too quick for power, but I am inclined to disagree as most of his homeruns are absolute no-doubters.
Middling defense: He has a fielding % of .980+ with a 41%+ throw-out rate and 6 pickoffs. Again, whoever believes he has middling defense (which should only develop further) should not be a major league scout and obvious has not seen him play.
Not a .300 hitter: With a guy hitting over .470 (and .479 in ACC play), I find this stunning. He is close to a .400 hitter on his CAREER at FSU.
And my personal favorite – average arm and release: With a 94 mph fastball, there is nothing average about his arm. He caught a guy running to first today on a bare-handed grab that looked over 100mph with momentum (the cameraman completely lost it). I sat next to a Pirates scout at our game today (who confirmed their top 5, including Posey, Beckham, and Alvarez). The scout had a stopwatch to time Buster’s throws and when Buster caught Tulane’s fastest player stealing second he was clocked at 2.01 seconds – roughly .2 seconds below the major league average. This number will only IMPROVE. (and he was clocked at 1.85 seconds by another scout earlier this year)
Oh, and his GPA is 3.8+
As a Red Sox fan, I would HATE to have him playing on a now-dangerous Rays team. That said, you guys are missing out if you don’t draft him #1 overall.
by stouts on Jun 2, 2008 1:50 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
For the record
2.01 is below average by ML average. A ML pop time is generally between 1.8-1.9
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by Tyler on Jun 2, 2008 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Don't think so...
That stat came directly from the Pirates scout who was at the game solely to watch Posey and time his throw to 2nd – presumably one of their best scouts, if not the best. You may very well be right, I’m just quoting the source I had.
by stouts on Jun 2, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
Everything I’ve ever read has said that ML pop time needs to be in the low 1.9 range at least and plus is in the 1.8 range.
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by Tyler on Jun 2, 2008 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't his strong arm make up for it?
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2008 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That is included
“Pop time” is the time from glove to glove
Tools Whore
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by Tyler on Jun 3, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Posey has to be the pick!
In the clutch at the regional he has hit 5 home runs already and his defense is unbelievable. I was thinking that he would be the “safe” pick but now I’m convinced that he IS THE PICK! Great players always rise to the occaision and any questions about his power potential have been answered. Instead of 10-15 homers per year, his potential looks like 15-20 per year and the comps to Jason Varitek look spot on.
SC raysfan
by SC raysfan on Jun 2, 2008 9:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
His totals are amazing, but I wouldn’t change my view based on the regionals and hitting bombs off the back end of Tulane and especially Bucknell’s pitching staffs.
Longlorious.
by RATW on Jun 2, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James:
Players taken in the June draft coming out of college (or with at least two years of college) perform dramatically better than players drafted out of high school.
The defensive spectrum looks like this:
/> with the basic premise being that positions at the right end of
the spectrum are more difficult than the positions at the left
end of the spectrum. Players can generally move from right
to left along the specturm successfully during their careers.by LeftRight on Jun 2, 2008 9:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't know why it does this.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beckham
He is our best shot, and navarro is gonna be the future at catcher…...
navarro will belt 10 Hrs by the end of the season…
and the average is amazing right now… best in the team
Hello Kitty, #1 in your fantasy league. =p
by Boricua on Jun 3, 2008 3:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Navarro’s going to come back to Earth soon, and really you shouldn’t worry about your current team when drafting.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The defensive spectrum -
Catcher is harder to play than SS.
by LeftRight on Jun 3, 2008 8:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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