MGL on Edwin Jackson
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 10:16 AM EDT
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PrintMy observations on Jackson: First of all, in general, he is a thrower and not a pitcher. That is not good after all the time he has spent in the major leagues. He does not locate his pitches well, and he does not seem to mix them up very well. In addition, he only seems to have two pitchers, both hard. The fastball from 94-97, and the slider from 87 to 89. Maybe some of those sliders are changeups, I can’t tell.
And of course the reason he has been terrible is because of his high walk totals. And for a guy with great stuff, his K rate is not nearly as high as it "should" be and not nearly high enough to overcome his high walk rate. Generally speaking I think Litchman is correct in his observation, he goes on to say Jackson is quite similar to LaTroy Hawkins and is probably best suited as a reliever, but something I hadn't noticed until looking up Jackson's velocity numbers is how little he uses his change-up in certain counts. Using Josh Kalk's player cards the breakdown of 0-2 pitches is as follows:
Generally speaking I think Litchman is correct in his observation, he goes on to say Jackson is quite similar to LaTroy Hawkins and is probably best suited as a reliever, but something I hadn't noticed until looking up Jackson's velocity numbers is how little he uses his change-up in certain counts. Using Josh Kalk's player cards the breakdown of 0-2 pitches is as follows:
Fastball: 54.69
Slider: .45.31
Change: 0.0
Now I can't guarantee the legitimacy of those numbers, but unless Kalk's algorithm is confusing some change-ups for sliders I don't have an explanation for a mistake. If this is true I have to question why Edwin/Dioner Navarro/or Jim Hickey have yet to correct it.Jackson's change sits just below 86 miles per hour, giving it roughly 8 miles per hour of separation between his fastball, and two from his slider, which obviously is more of a horizontal breaking pitch.
From what I've seen with my untrained eye Jackson's change can be very effective if thrown in the right situations, and 0-2 seems like the perfect place for a breaking ball low, just ask James Shields who throws his nearly 40% of the time in 0-2 counts.
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"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
pitch f/x and soon, swing f/x or whatever it's called
are mind-blowing.
The possibilites are endless.
It's great.
Hit F/X is apparently going to really help with fielding breakdowns as well.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I am a big proponent of the change up. It is a great pitch that can help reduce pitches because it isnt as much a swing and miss pitch, but more so a poor contact/mis-hit pitch. It is great behind in the count because it looks similar to a fastball, can induce swings, and the batter actually makes poor contact…many times resulting in an out. That’s why I love the changeup in 1-0, 2-0 counts because instead of throwing a swing and miss pitch like a slider and continuing the AB and running a high pitch count, the AB can be shortened.
Having said all that… unless you have a great changeup, it is typically an awful pitch to throw 0-2. That pitch is a put-away pitch or set up pitch. A high FB too change the batters eye level, A FB in to back him off the plate, a breaking ball in the dirt to chase. IMO the changeup is an absolutely awful choice 0-2 unless it is a strikeout changeup.
You don't think
His change is a strikeout pitch? I think the deception behind it could work.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I think his slider is a FAR better strikeout pitch. His change looks very average to me. Nothing wrong with that, and I would love to see him challenge hitters with a good changeup in 1-0, 2-1 counts instead of a 95mph flat fastball in the zone. Philosophically, unless it is a plus pitch or one of his best 2 pitches, he should rarely, if ever use it 0-2. But, that just my opinion.
Makes sense.
And yes, his slider is without a doubt the better strikeout pitch.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Also...
His lack of success stems 100% from location. Sure he could use his CHange a bit more, but he leaves the ball in the zone way too much. He has a good FB, but it appears relatively flat, and ML hitters dont care how hard you throw if it is flat and in the zone. He also hangs his slider quite a bit. When he is locating, he is top flight pitcher…unfortunately, he is more thrower then pitcher.
And of course the reason he has been terrible
thats a real laugher
We are 7-6 in games Jackson has started this year. I’ll take that out of my 4th starter. How a 4th starter can help his team win more than half his starts can be terrible is beyond me. All credibility is gone there
Again I dont see how he has been terrible by any stretch. A 4.06 ERA in the AL East is terrible? Wow I guess Im new to this game. he has faced Boston 3 times, NY twice, white sox twice, toronto, st louis, and @ LA and a 4.06 ERA is bad out of a 4th starter? LMAO, another stat jockey
“his K rate is not nearly as high as it “should” be”
According to what? A “strict” set of numbers that determine whether a pitcher “should” be succesful or not? Fact is, Jackson will do better than 90% of pitchers who have BB:K rates similar to his because most hitters dont get good wood on him. I dont know what stat can tell you that. Which is why it makes it impossible for stat jockeys to get a good gauge on Edwin. He pitches to contact (which is why he sits mostly 92-95 now), and he gets guys out.
I dont know why anyone would say he has no control now either. He is obviously, OBVIOUSLY, progressing in that department. I watched him yesterday, in a game where he lost his control more than he normally does, and he was still painteing corners most of the game
I’ve also yet to have been told which stat shows how well a pitcher is doing with runners on base, because if you walk a guy and get out of trouble regularly that is going to confuse many of the stat jockeys who punish him for his walks. There are so many variables that cant be accouted for from the stat jockeys, that indicate how good/bad Jackson is doing
His start yesterday was average at best. Not very good at all, but he battled back whenever he struggled, and 50% of the time you win when you receive performances out of your starter like Jackson gave
LMAO another phillistine.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree
He hasn’t been great, but Edwin’s been about what you expect for a 4th/5th starter. Let’s not forget he’s only 24 years old. People need to get off his back and let him develop some more. Most pitchers don’t reach their prime until 27 or 28 years old.
btw
I love the special attention Jackson gets when he struggles (and wins) as opposed to win Sonny is getting knocked aroun (basically the last month and a half) and barely gets one sentence out of anyone or god forbid an entire article be written about his many weaknesses
BTW
I love how you accuse me of bias when I post an article I come across.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I knew who posted the article before I saw your name. It seems most negative Edwin Jackson posts are from you.
Most posts are from me.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
how could it be anything else?
You are sure to shed light on a bad JAckson performance and keep al lof Sonnys flaws in the shadows. Its how things work around here.
This really won't end well for you.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
i have seen many
Sonny support articles that were simply “being passed along”, and ZERO about Jackson (whom has been the better pitcher this year, easily)
I just remember how funny it was when Jackson threw his complete game shut out, or simething similar, and all the love he got was a tiny headline “Sickels on JAckson” that I nearly overlooked
The bias is ivery funny to me. Even when Sonny and/or Jackson are proving you wrong, you ignore it
Did I post the Sonny BP interview? No, I didn't. We use fanshots for quotes and smaller links.
Original DRB pieces critical of Sonnanstine:
http://www.draysbay.com/2008/5/27/540724/spot-the-trend
http://www.draysbay.com/2008/5/21/524726/going-slow-in-a-fast-world
Critical of Jackson:
http://www.draysbay.com/2008/5/18/520172/you-can-t-walk-10-and-win
Those are the only pieces dedicated to either on this site in the last two months.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
wont end well for me? LMAO
Why because there are mostly Sonny jock riders here? I have no problemw ith that. Its a pretty simple argument. Jacksons ERA is 4.06 against a hellish schedule and Sonny is a near 5 ERA with a .302 BAA and a career .297 BAA
GAME…SET…MATCH
I’m telling you to either stop trying to portray some dislike towards Jackson from my point of view or else.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Ban stick Ban stick Ban stick
Where’s Jeff or Graham?
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
I’m honestly hoping there is no racial component to this Jackson hate. It is clear by any stretch that Jackson is a better pitcher than Sonny. That is by no means a knock on Sonny. Jackson has performed better, and has better stuff. What exactly is the measure that shows that Sonny is better? Now the one thing I will agree with is this. Sonny is pitching up to his capabilities and Jackson is not. Sonny gets all the props in the world for getting the most out of what he can whereas Jackson still has a ways to go potential wise. I hope Andy can even boost his ceiling a bit higher. I want every one of our players to be the best they can possibly be. But even taking that into consideration Edwin Jackson is better than Sonnanstine.
Now both Jackson and Sonnanstine have essentially started this year and last year. It is a common misconception that Jackson has been starting in the majors for a long time. He has 1 game started in 2006 and only a few in the years prior. Jackson started a handful more games than Sonny last year and are the same this year. However, Jackson was better LAST YEAR and he is better THIS YEAR.
I just do not see any sort of qualitative or quantitative argument for Sonny over Jackson for the two years they’ve been MLB starters. If there is one please let us know.
I’m honestly hoping there is no racial component to this Jackson hate.
Are you serious?
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Race has nothing to do with this.
Frankly I’m a bit appalled you’d bring that up.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Nobody on this site dislikes Edwin because he's German or because he happens to have a darker skin tone.
The only “dislike”, and I use that term real lightly, is that his numbers suggest - based on thousands and thousands of cases - he’s not really as good as some wish to portray him by using vague representations of performance. It’s hard for some numbskulls to get that through their heads but it’s a fact.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think anyone is saying he is the next coming. He has had a pretty poor career so far. But his career so far has been better than Sonnanstines. If you wish to compare Edwin to another pitcher odds are I’d say the other pitcher has been vastly superior. Edwin just hasn’t been that good in his career. But he has been better than Sonnanstine.
This isn't about Sonnanstine v. Jackson.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
obviously,
but don’t discount race as a factor. i don’t think he was singling you out specifically. but as fan of tampa sports, there has been a very obvious pattern of white vs black “favorite players”, especially when it comes to the Bucs. players like Alstott and Lynch and Ruud have large and vocal fan bases, that get appaled when they feel their player is mis-treated, you hardly hear the same complaints or see the same amount of support for the black players on the bucs, to an extent.
not that i think anyone on this site has anything against jackson b/c of his race, but you can’t dismiss it out of hand for the world at large.
sure people like them,
notice the “for the most part”, but to be honest, there was never the same outcry for sapp as there was for lynch, never the same outcry for nickerson or quarles or even dunn the first time around, that there was for alstott.
There were no outcries
for anyone when Hardy was here. And Sapp is just not very likeable. Quarels was never really a superstar (one hell of a football player though). I think the love for Alstott came from the way he played the game, not the color of his skin. That guy absolutely crushed people. Who’s your favorite player? Derrick Brooks
Either way
What is the reason for you to think Sonny is better than Jackson? The fact that he has gotten the most out of his abilities is a tremendous plus for him. But that doesn’t change the fact that Jackson has simply been a better pitcher. They are the same age, Jackson has better raw stuff, and he has better overall numbers. Not that either player has had a stellar career so far. Unless somehow you are projecting that Jackson’s control is going to get worse which would cause his numbers to become worse than Andys?
This isn't about Sonnanstine v. Jackson.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
If it isn't, then answer me this for shits and giggles;
Who would you take as a pitcher, Sonnanstine or Jackson?
by Cory Alexander on Jun 10, 2008 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
David Price.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
No no no,
if you had to pick one of those two to save your life, who would you pick.
by Cory Alexander on Jun 10, 2008 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions
In 1 game I’d pick Sonny. Over a season or a career I’d pick Jackson. Sonny is at least going to be consistently below average. Jackson has the chance to lay a major egg. That is just my .02 cents.
5.56 K/9 1.59 BB/9 18.6 LD% 44.9 GB%, 3.59 FIP
6.14 K/9, 4.17 BB/9, 18 LD%, 44.9 GB%, 4.02 FIP
Who do YOU take?
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
This year.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
ERA is not a good stat to judge by.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
But over the past two years as a starter Jackson has had a lower ERA than Sonny playing on the same team. Sooner or later that has to mean something. There is no defensive adjustment to be made. The same team, the same parks etc. Jackson has done better.
It means little to nothing.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions
It does mean something.
It means that Jackson has had better results over the past year. It means nothing going forward, but ERA is a fairly good judge on what pitchers had better results.
In the past year the five starters with at least 20 GS and the best ERA are Kazmir, Webb, Wellmeyer, Peavy, and Lackey. The five worst are Jason Jennings, Matt Morris, Steve Trachsel, Brian Burres, and Matt Belisle.
There is definitely a trend between ERA and quality of pitching.
And yes, I chose the extremes for a reason. You can’t totally dismiss ERA. It has its limits but is still valuable.
ERA can lie.
Wellemyer proves my point perfectly.
I’m not dismissing it as one part of a picture, but I am dismissing using ERA as your sole judging factor.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not to say other stats don't lie either.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Which he wasn't
He listed three stats. You pointed to ERA as proof that his argument was flawed.
BTW, have you looked at Todd Wellemeyer’s stats this season? K/9 of 7.4, BB/9 of 3.0. His numbers may be inflated but not by much at all.
Fair enough.
But the other two statistics listed were almost identical, which presented it as if ERA was the deciding factor.
A much better example would’ve been Matsuzaka.
Re: Wellemeyer his BABIP is quite a bit off, we’ll see if the hits ever fall or not, otherwise he’s been solid, but I don’t think his ERA is sub 3 when it’s all said an done.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a Sonny vs. Jackson debate
I’m not debating Sonny vs. Jackson here as much as I’m debating stats. Really just because I’m bored. For the record, I still would rather have Sonny than Jackson going forward, but that’s different than saying which one as pitched better. Jackson has clearly had better results over the past year. Whether that’s the same thing going forward is a different story.
I agree that Wellemeyer has been lucky, but he’s a much different pitcher than the Cubs version.
Wellemeyer’s season doesn’t resemble the 2006 KC stint either, he’s learned to limit his walks.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
And raise his Ks.
Which is the perfect combination. K/9 of 7+ and BB/9 of
For example
Gary Glover’s ERA is below 4. He is quite possibly the worst pitcher in the major leagues.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 10, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Reliever ERA is totally different
Bill James talks about reliever ERA in his new book and basically dismisses it as a judgment tool. It’s a terrible judge of quality of reliever because it doesn’t tell the whole story do too inherited runners. Starters do not suffer from this as much.
Good. Regarding the article I do agree somewhat. Jackson has a lot of growing up to do. He still has tons of untapped potential and he needs to learn on the fly. And it is scary knowing he is our number 3 pitcher. That just makes me more adamant that we need to put David Price on the fast track. If we are struggling out of the number 3 spot that just makes the 4 and 5 look even worse. And yes Jackson is our real number 3 over Garza.
Oh dear God...
Get this straight folks regarding the Sonnanstine vs Jackson debate.
Sonnanstine gets a longer leash from people because he has half the natural ability of Jackson. Jackson throws hard, has a a great slider, and yet 8 out of 10 times he trots out there, you’re closing your eyes and hoping for the best. As it was said earlier, for his raw stuff and years in the bigs, he still pitches like a rookie. Magrane was shredding him last night for poor two-strike pitching. He’ll get up 0-2 and either leave one in the zone or throw three straight balls trying to aim a pitch. Last night was a very ugly start but he was lucky the offense bailed him out.
Sonnanstine has a much smaller margin for error than Jackson and minimalizes it by reducing his walk totals. We know his limitations coming into a start. Jackson has to be better because he has a ton of talent that he under-utilizes.
Magrane...
To be fair, Magrane clearly has problems with Jackson and Garza. He gives them much short leashes than someone like Sonny. this is probably all perception, Jackson and Garza are perceived to have control over their miscues while Sonny is just a guy doing the best he can with much less natural ability.
I love Sonny and believe he’ll be a good pitcher. He’s such a unique type and may be the benchmark by which similar pitchers are judged in the future. No one has ever pitched like Sonny and not been somewhat successful (though Scott Baker is probably his closest comp).
by tallyray on Jun 10, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Why is this still a debate when they are not in direct head-to-head competition for a job?
Barring a trade or complete collapse, they’re both going to be in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future.
Longlorious.
Further
What did I say bad about Jackson in this post? I didn’t bash him, I simply stated he could perhaps become more effective if he used a pitch that I deem as a utility in his arsenal.
Some of you seriously need to grow up, or learn to read.
"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena
that's not a fair thing to say,
no, you didn’t bash jackson in this thread. but when someone has a history of one viewpoint, and is vocal about it, then even loosely related statements can easily be seen as insinuations of the same. i don’t think it’s that far fetched.
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