During the previous homestand I made an entry about my views on the Rays as contenders. My conclusion was that if they continued to play well on that homestand (which they certainly did, going 8-2 overall) and had a decent road trip in three tough places to go then I'd let all my reservations go. They went 3-6 on that road trip including another sweep in Boston, falling short of my stated goal of 4-5. With their good performance in Texas and maybe only losing the finale in Anaheim because of abysmally incompetent umpiring at a crucial time in the game I felt a little better about the rest of the season but I feel that they haven't completely gotten over the hump yet because of one potentially damaging weakness.

That weakness is 3/5 of the rotation. Kazmir and Shields are fine, if they're healthy nobody should worry about them at all. In fact they're a great 1-2 punch to throw at teams (personally I couldn't care less about Shields' road performance this year, HFA has been somewhat out of whack so far anyway and he was fine on the road in 2007, there's nothing to worry about in my eyes). The problem is with the other guys.

Edwin Jackson had those two great starts in the first half of May that really impressed even me. Since then however he has thrown 28.1 innings with a 5.08 ERA, allowing 36 hits and 15 walks to only 19 strikeouts. That's very similar to what he did before those two great starts. He did have that brief stint of greatness, showing that at times he really can put it together, but he's still very hittable, walks too many, and doesn't strike out nearly enough for the supposed power pitcher he is. This is with offense down across the league and a great defense backing him. How can we say that he has really turned a corner when his short time of brilliance is sandwiched by two longer periods of the same old stuff?

Matt Garza has tons of talent, nobody can disagree with that, and his great stuff is much more obvious than Jackon's (as Jackson often doesn't look like his pitches are anything special). That being said he obviously lacks a handle on his emotions and it repeatedly gets him into trouble out there. His walk rate isn't terrible, 3.6/9 is manageable for a power pitcher getting strikeouts, but he isn't getting the strikeouts. Obviously I don't know for sure but I think it's a fair bet that his emotional outbursts are preventing him from pitching smartly and making the pitches that fool hitters and rack up the K's.

Andy Sonnanstine doesn't have walk problems and though he has a low strikeout rate that's perfectly acceptable due to his tendency to keep hitters from jogging to first base. The problem is major hittability due to his tendency to leave balls up in the zone. His actual stuff is adequate, he doesn't throw hard but anyone who has watched his starts has seen plenty of good sequences where hitters just can't get good contact off anything. Unfortunately these periods of mystifying the batters rarely last an entire game; as I type this I'm watching the Rays-Marlins game and he began the game by giving up hard hits to the first three batters on balls left up in the zone then retiring 12 straight by keeping the ball down and the hitters off-balance. Unfortunately he went back to having trouble in the 5th and 6th innings, resulting in an early exit. I'm not sure what the problem is, it's obviously a mechanical thing, but it's a persistent problem and until he proves that he can fix it and have it stay fixed then we can't assume much about the future.

The good news is that between Jeff Niemann and the surging Mitch Talbot (ERA of 2.83 with a 51/10 K/BB in 63.2 IP over his last 10 starts) they do have options if they feel a move is necessary. The problem is that it's not necessarily that easy to decide who goes. The majority of us would favor either Jackson or Sonnanstine going, depending on our personal inclinations, but I don't think it's as simple as either camp would like it to be. Jackson does have better stuff and therefore a higher ceiling, plus his overall performance hasn't been terrible in the general results department, a 4.08 ERA on the season. However, while Sonnanstine's ceiling is limited, a mechanical/delivery option is more likely to be fixable than a lack of ability to "pitch" or general insanity on the mound. A minority might favor Garza leaving the rotation but I think he's the least problematic of the three and also has the highest ceiling.

So, while I continue to love what the team is doing and am very pleased with the progress made this season, I still have my concerns about maintaining this very high level of success over 162 games. We're well into June though and they keep playing well and nobody else is stepping up to look like a real wild card threat, plus Boston isn't exactly pulling away with the division either despite six straight wins over the Rays, so rotation concerns or not they may just become surefire contenders by default soon enough.