BaseballHQ: Sonny and E-Jax

by RayFanNY on Jun 19, 2008 3:15 AM EDT

BaseballHQ (subscription required), fronted by Ron Shandler of Baseball Forecaster and Fantasyland fame, has interesting takes on Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine this week.

HQ took apart Edwin Jackson's statistics, and noted most of his problems come down to focus. They feel E-Jax is close to breaking out and anchoring the Tampa Bay rotation. Why?

Feed on these statistics:

With runners on base, Jackson appears to become more intense and focussed on what he needs to do. Some pitchers get flustered in these situations, but not E-Jax.

With runners on base: Edwin Jackson 6.3 K/9 vs. 2.3 BB/9. Very impressive!

With the bases empty, it almost seems like E-Jax doesn't bear down enough, and loses focus: 6.1 K/9 vs. 6.6 BB/9. Terrible!

E-Jax is clearly our most controversial pitcher, at least among us. Either you think he is wasting our time, or you think he is close to fulfilling his incredible promise. Interesting that BaseballHQ thinks E-Jax is close to turning the corner and becoming a front line starter. They note he needs to find an out pitch against lefties too.

Also interesting is their analysis of Andy Sonnanstine. Statistically, Sonnanstine's focus seems to be a mirror opposite of Jackson. Sonnanstine's K/BB ratio is twice as high with the bases empty, as it is with runners on. Does he have problems working out of the stretch? Is it the pressure which causes him to lose focus? If so, the last thing we need is for him to be a late inning reliever.

I don't dislike Sonny. I still see hope despite his lack of velocity, and his propensity to leave his pitches up as meatballs. But since the second half of last season, I have felt Jackson has shown more promise. If only he could keep his focus throughout an entire game.

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Strong work Baseball HQ

Don’t know this Ron Shandler character, but I can tell he knows what he’s talking about

The 2nd biggest myth regarding Jackson THIS YEAR, is that he still breaks down mentally when he gets in a jam. THIS is EXACTLY what I have been pointing out to people since late last year. Put the numbers aside, you could SEE he was GROWING

The 1st biggest myth is of course that he can’t control his stuff. Another area in which he is CLEARLY growing

His faults are correctable, and he has gave us every reason to rally behind him as a fringe prospect/ guy trying to regain some mmomentum in his career. But still people hate him out of spite

The point about finding an out pitch vs lefties is also SPOT ON analysis. Great point by a guy who Im guessing isn’t even a Rays fan. I’m not sure if asking for a changeup out of Edwin is too much right now. I feel the same as everyone else that he is fragile still, and already working on improving a lot of other areas (and IMO having great growth spurts). He definitely could benefit from a respectable 3rd pitch

by blazinrayz on Jun 19, 2008 4:16 AM EDT 0 recs

Ron Shandler is a stat head

So you should hate him, go ahead and call him an idiot now please, otherwise you’re a hypocrite.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2008 10:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

And yes this was sarcasm.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

most boards have like a color that denotes sarcasm,

i know on the bucs board it was blue. anything typed in blue was sarcastic. you should try to get something like that here, b/c internet sarcasm is just too hard to pick up. that or some symbol like that you put that the front and back to let everyone know you are being sarcastic…

by davidsmarch on Jun 19, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up 0 recs

Oh and RJ

Please dont curse at RayFanNY, or Ron Shandler for speaking of Sonny and Jackson together. I know it just drives you ape shit

by blazinrayz on Jun 19, 2008 4:19 AM EDT 0 recs

With runners on base: Edwin Jackson 6.3 K/9 vs. 2.3 BB/9. Very impressive!

Bases Empty: 4 HRs

Men on Base: 4 HRs.

Please continue locking it down.

by SaberToothedPie on Jun 19, 2008 8:41 AM EDT 0 recs

If I had to guess I would think the dataset for for bases empty would have more observations

making the Men On Base HR stat have a higher ratio. That’s just a guess though. If the guy keeps walking people by the gallon he is completely useless in any role. Throw the GD ball over the GD plate.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 19, 2008 9:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

Shandler is a lifelong Mets fan

He is also a brilliant statistical analyst who is right a lot more than he is wrong. I see him once a year for Tout Wars and he was singing the praises of Howell for this year as early as December. The outpitch on lefties will come when he gains more confidence in his change and can throw it for strikes instead of just as a show-me pitch.

by Jason Collette on Jun 19, 2008 8:56 AM EDT 0 recs

Absolutely

His early analysis of Howell got me on the bandwagon fast for my fantasy team. BaseballHQ still thinks his role could increase this year. They have mentioned him as a starter, and also as a setup man or closer should something happen to Percival.

by RayFanNY on Jun 21, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

I don't think anyone denies that Jackson has far better stuff than Sonny..

Sonny just throws more strikes. If Jackson lowered his walk rate to league average he would be a borderline all star.

by matthan on Jun 19, 2008 9:29 AM EDT 0 recs

HE NEEDS CONFIDENCE DUDE

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yes he does

Sonny needs talent :(

by matthan on Jun 19, 2008 11:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

SONNY NEEDS CONFIDENCE TOO

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

What makes you think that?

I’m beginning to have an idea why you love Sonny so much.

by matthan on Jun 19, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

I have no reason to believe it.

But it seems to be a blanket excuse that I enjoy mocking.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up 0 recs

For me, neither Sonny or EJax has a future in Tampa Bay.

It just comes down to a numbers game. I mean, Shields, Kazmir, and Garza seem to be a lock in this rotation for years to come. With Price coming soon and the unbelievable amount of talent we have in our organization, it’s obvious that Sonny and Ejax are either fighting for that number 5 spot or both will be traded. If not this year, than for sure by spring training. Unless of course either is put in the pen which I believe Jackson is most suited for.

by Rays Rule on Jun 19, 2008 2:24 PM EDT 0 recs

High walk rates in the pen = disaster

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 19, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

You don't trade your SP's if you in a Pennant race

They are not going to trade Sonny or Ejax this year as long as we keep winning. I do believe that they could have a spot in the future rotation if they pitch well down the stretch. I think both have been slightly above average starters this year. As a Rays fan since day one I know that average-above average starters are nothing to take for granted

by Sveet on Jun 19, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry

for the tp

by Sveet on Jun 19, 2008 3:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

LOL

by RayFanNY on Jun 21, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think one of them could be traded

If the trade involves an upgrade to the starting rotation. They could be a part of the package.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 19, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

So you should hate him, go ahead and call him an idiot now please, otherwise you’re a hypocrite.

RJ why are you so confused? Stas are an integral part of this game

What I hate, is when people like you misuse stats

I am very intrigued by SABRmetrics, and the great minds that know how to use them appropriately

I cant stand when I watch something happen, and then someone tells me I didnt really see what I saw because some obscure number suggests otherwise (cough SOnny cough cough Shawn Camp cough cough)

I absolutely love hearing what statheads think when they are using both stat sheets and their heads

by blazinrayz on Jun 20, 2008 3:13 PM EDT 0 recs

Sabermetrics...

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 20, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

there are plenty of people on here

Including yourself RJ, that come up with some enlightening ideas from the use of stats

I just giggle to myself when I hear you say things like Shawn Camp couldve been succesful last year or the year before

What is funny, is how similar Camp and Sonny are

Camp got shelled. He got slaughtered. He didnt just “give up ground balls our defense didnt get to”, he got stroked hard and every inherited runner he took he allowed to score. Same thing iwth Sonny, sort of. he gets hit very hard yet you IGNORE what is right in fron tof your face and dig deeper to try and find a reason to believe Sonny/Camp arent what they show us

by blazinrayz on Jun 20, 2008 3:20 PM EDT 0 recs

Yes, I'm a moron for thinking that a groundball pitcher with a good defense could be effective

Oh wait, you mean Camp is a league average reliever this year with a good defense? Oh my, oh well, I’ ma go eat some more paste.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 20, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Reply works too

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jun 20, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

If you did not see the effect of the defense on Camp

you were not watching the games. As a matter of fact, in 2006 Camp was almost exactly a league average reliever, certainly prone to bad games but more often quite effective even with a mediocre defense. What changed in 2007 is that his control declined while the defense was historically awful. He was genuinely terrible last year, but the awful defense made him worse than he really was and so it is hard to judge his true performance.

And this year he has returned to being a league average reliever. In 2006, he did not allow a base runner in 20 of his 75 appearances nor was a run debited to him in 50 outings. He also induced 12 DPs. This year, in 23 outings, he has kept runners off base in 12 and allowed no runs in 18. His line against lefties is awful, but against righties his line is .148/.179/.204.

There is no comparison, by the way, between Sonnanstine and Camp. They are totally different kinds of pitchers with entirely different strengths and weaknesses and entirely different projectabilities.

by bobr on Jun 20, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up 0 recs