Change batting order?

by free hotdogs on Jun 2, 2008 10:29 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

I know it is probably best not to fix something if it's not broken, the Rays are winning in bunches after all, but do you think there is a need to switch up the batting order a little...or a lot? The offense is sputtering a bit, so maybe a change is not so bad. My biggest issue is all those lefties together at the top of the order. What would you, as the monday-morning-manager do? Here is mine:

1. Akinori Iwamura- I think right now at least, the best lead-off man we have

2. Evan Longoria- a lot of rookies seem to have success at this slot

3. Carl Crawford- good AVG with RISP

4. B.J. Upton-good AVG with RISP

5. Carlos Pena- needs a change

6. Cliff Floyd/ Willy Aybar/ Eric Hinske

7. Dioner Navarro/ Shawn Riggans

8. Gabe Gross/Jonny Gomes

9. Jason Bartlett

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Pena is the key

I would switch the 5 and 6 holes. The 6th slot you have, has a combined OPS of .832, while Pena is sitting at .732. I cant remember where he started out last year, but I am pretty sure it was not the 3 slot from day one. I would even consider switching him and Upton again, because that protection gave him plenty of success last year.

by LeftRight on Jun 2, 2008 11:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Carl only wants to bat second and play left.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2008 11:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Quiet, hater.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 2, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't fear changing the lineup

No need to fear disrupting things. Listen, it’s one thing to say “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”, but our offense isn’t that great right now. It will most certainly get better just due to the personnel involved, but right now we are a middle of the pack team in the American League. We ran into a tough series against the White Sox, who have a damn good pitching staff, so I don’t think you come away from this series discouraged. On the other hand, a lot of players have underperformed thus far into the season, and you need to adjust your team accordingly to fit that reality.

But I’m never a fan of the whole “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” philosophy anyways. I believe you need to be constantly innovating and adapting to place yourself in the best possible position at all times, and if that requires a little conjecture, so be it. It’s a risk worth taking to maintain your success.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2008 11:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

We're top 5 in the AL in almost every statistical category

Runs are down across the league.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

True

I’m talking about the individual performances. Right now, looking at our collective lineup, we are mediocre.

Iwamura
Crawford
Pena
Longoria

These four hitters near the top of our order are mediocre or worse for their respective positions, and they are getting the most at bats.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 2, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, and we’re still upper tier in terms of the AL offensive ranks despite their struggles, when they do come around we should only gain rank.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think unless you are talking about benching one player for another

that changing the lineup around doesn’t have any significant effect.

by JI on Jun 2, 2008 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

agreed

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 2, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, it does have an effect

But there is no way to accurately predict how any lineup will play out within the context of any game, or set of games.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 2, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i have to agree

right now, Pena is up to bat in WAY TOO MANY very important situations. he is killing us with RISP with his strike outs and lack of any contact. moving him down some would take him out of the high pressure, run producing situations/spot in the line-up, and enable someone who is hitting better to help us there.

hell, move Navarro up to 5th for all i care, he may not hit any Hr’s, but his contact has been stellar, and he could drive in a ton of runs for us if he keeps up as it is.

by davidsmarch on Jun 2, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

..or he could hit into a ton of double-plays if he cools off and the contact doesn’t find the hole.

Leave it alone.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 2, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well then you simply adjust again,

does that make sense? yes it does.

by davidsmarch on Jun 2, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

..and you run around in circles hoping to catch the lightning-in-the-bottle streaky hitter and accomplish nothing.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 2, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think the Book stated that you should just leave your lineup as is

As long as your worst player isn’t leading off and your best aren’t batting near the end it really shouldn’t make a difference.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

changing the lineup around doesn’t have any significant effect.

So you wouldnt care if we put Floyd at leadoff and Bartlett in the 2 hole from here on out? I think it is impossible to predict, but whats important here is the fact that each slot you drop in the order loses 20 PAs in a year. Here is our lineup as calculated by baseball musings that projects 5.124 runs per game:

Upton
  Floyd
  Pena
  Hinkse
  Aki
  Crawford
  Longoria
  Bartlett

by LeftRight on Jun 2, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

? - sorry

Upton, Floyd, Pena, Navy, Hinske, Aki, Crawford, Longo, Bartlett

by LeftRight on Jun 2, 2008 1:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Im not arguing

That higher positions in the batting order don’t get more PA’s. I am arguing that in constructing a line-up, it is nearly impossible to predict the amount of pressure/leverage each of those PA’s will get…i.e. once the first pitch is thrown, there is no way other than making substitutions to control who bats with runners on. Of course as a general principle its better to get your better hitters more PA’s. But I don’t think overstressing lineup is the way to go.

And Floyd has a .350 OBP. Batting him leadoff wouldn’t hurt us nearly as much as you seem to think.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 2, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I actually like the idea of Upton batting leadoff.

He’s been walking a ton this year and he sees a high number of pitches per plate appearance, so he could give the hitters behind him an idea of what’s coming. Only negative is the baserunning mistakes…

"Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me." -Dusty Baker on OBP

by vtcub on Jun 2, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

imagine if we had Ichiro

order could be

Ichiro
Aki
CC
BOSSMAN
Longoria
Pena
Navi
Floyd
Barty

by daveh33 on Jun 2, 2008 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I just want

Bonds

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jun 2, 2008 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

actually i do want BOSSMAN third

Ichiro
CC
BOSSMAN
Aki
Longo
Pena
Navi
Floyd
Barty

... Aki in cleanup, getting on base for Longo and Pena

by daveh33 on Jun 3, 2008 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Runs are down

No steroids

by KazforPresident on Jun 2, 2008 10:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Weather correlation it seems.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good call

No steroids were ever in baseball. Just changing weather.

by KazforPresident on Jun 3, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did I say that?

That seems a whole lot clearer than everyone suddenly getting off of steroids.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And for good reading that isn't totally unrelated

http://steroids-and-baseball.com/

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2008 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My lineup

1. Carl Crawford: for the speed
2. Bj Upton
3. Evan Longoria
4. Carlos Pena
5. Dioner Navarro!!!
6. Akinori Iwamura: (last year was raking .340’s until he became full time lead-off)
7. Hinske/Aybar/Cliff
8. Gomes/Hinske/Floyd/Gross/anyone else…
9. Bartlett

Hello Kitty, #1 in your fantasy league. =p

by Boricua on Jun 3, 2008 3:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Crawford has to bat 2nd cause that's the only place he wants to bat

That makes things more complicated. Because of that the only two people who really seem reasonable at leadoff are Aki and Barty and the only person who really seems reasonable at leadoff is Aki.

So
1. Aki
2. CC

I like BJ at 3rd because he is probably…..he is our best RH and we could use one at the top so it’s not all lefty.

1. Aki
2. CC
3. BJ

I like Pena at 4, but until he gets his bat going he needs to move down. The only logical choice for me especially since I like the lefty righty change in the order would be Floyd/Hinske

1. Aki
2. CC
3. BJ
4. Hinske/Floyd

I’d keep Longo in the 5 spot to help protect him, give him a chance for clutch, and to keep the lefty righty switch.

1. Aki
2. CC
3. BJ
4. Hinske/Floyd
5. Longo

Six you throw in the slumping Pena as the 6 spot maybe can boast him and he still has Dioner batting behind him and against rhp he would still have Hinske back there too.

1. Aki
2. CC
3. BJ
4. Hinske/Floyd
5. Longo
6. Pena

All I can say about 7 is NAVI TIME!!!!!!!!!

1. Aki
2. CC
3. BJ
4. Hinske/Floyd
5. Longo
6. Pena
7. Navi

8 spot you throw in the tandrum of Hinske/Gross/Aybar/Whoever else might play

1. Aki
2. CC
3. BJ
4. Hinske Floyd
5. Longo
6. Pena
7. Navi
8. Hinske/Gross
9/ Barty

For lhp you just switch the hinske/floyd 4 spot down to where Navi is and push Navi and everyone in front of him up a spot

by KazforPresident on Jun 3, 2008 8:57 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs