BPIP Upate

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2008 1:55 PM EDT

Pitcher	ERA	IP	BB	TB	TOTAL	BPIP	Pera	NET
Balfour	0	1.7	0	2	2	1.18	1.88	1.884
Wheeler	2.08	26	10	30	40	1.54	3.03	0.947
Glover	4.86	16.7	12	28	40	2.4	5.73	0.873
Kazmir	1.22	37	13	30	43	1.16	1.84	0.619
Hammel	4.82	37.3	18	67	85	2.28	5.37	0.546
Jackson	3.7	65.7	32	94	126	1.92	4.23	0.525
Birkins	0.9	10	5	5	10	1	1.33	0.427
Shields	3.24	80.7	17	116	133	1.65	3.37	0.133
Sonnanstine	4.96	74.3	13	145	158	2.13	4.88	-0.076
Garza	3.78	52.3	22	69	91	1.74	3.66	-0.116
Howell	3.38	37.3	14	41	55	1.47	2.83	-0.555
Percival	2.95	21.3	4	23	27	1.27	2.17	-0.778
Reyes	3.55	12.7	6	12	18	1.42	2.64	-0.905
Miller	3.63	17.3	8	16	24	1.39	2.55	-1.08

Nets in the negative are "unlucky" and should result in lower ERAs and nets in the positive are "lucky" and should result in higher ERAs. Consider it encouraging that all of the projected ERAs, minus Jason Hammel and more so Gary Glover -- who gives even the most innocent of fans a dolorous appearance -- are under 5. Meanwhile Scott Kazmir is trying to do his best Pedro Martinez impression.

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Comments

I still don't like BPIP.

Because while you say that some of these pitchers are lucky or unlucky based on how many of their opponents reach base, it doesn’t take into account why they reach base.
There is a difference between GB outs, FB outs, and strikeouts. Failing to recognize this leads to less-than-perfect analysis.
This gives you a much better idea of who has or hasn’t been lucky and by how much.
One big discrepancy Sonnanstine. You say his projected ERA is 4.88, but his FIP is only 3.77. Why? PERA doesn’t take into account his great GB rate, his K rate, or his HR/FB ratio.
PERA gives too much credit to FB pitchers.

by lailaihei on Jun 2, 2008 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

Good point.

I’ll have to see if I can’t find a way to implement out types into it.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 2, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

But it does take into account how brutally hard balls are hit when he is on the hill.

by matthan on Jun 2, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions

Or how nice of a guy the pitcher is.

B Rad the Ray Fan

by BWoodrum on Jun 3, 2008 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I dont understand any of this

can you explain what this stuff means?

Sonny has really given up 145 TB in 74 innings? I didnt realize it was that bad. DOnt we have great defense now too?

by blazinrayz on Jun 3, 2008 9:40 AM EDT reply actions

What do you not understand?

Most of it should be fleshed out here. If not feel free to ask.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 3, 2008 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions

just stumbled across something else

In RHP Andy Sonnanstine’s last six starts, he has allowed 55 hits in 35 2/3 innings

WOW!

by blazinrayz on Jun 3, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, that's unacceptable

To put it mildly.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 3, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry I missed this RJ

Haven’t been around much lately.

Since I was involved, I really like BPIP, but it has nothing to do with outs or how they’re gotten. It’s simply a measure of bases allowed by the pitcher, so kind of a WHIP plus slugging against. The thinking behind it being this: a run is an accumulation of 4 bases, not simply the number iof base runners as measured by WHIP. It’s an attempt to improve the ERA predictability of WHIP, which is actually not so bad. An illustrative example might help.

2 pitchers each pitch 1 inning. The first allows a solo HR, the other a single plus 2 BB, leaves the bases loaded. The first guy’s WHIP is 1.00, his BPIP is 4.00. The second’s WHIP is 3.0, same for BPIP. An extreme example, but hopefully it clarifies the difference a bit.

by nyyfaninlaaland on Jun 5, 2008 3:37 AM EDT reply actions