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6/22: HOU (34-41) at RAYS (44-30)

Patavatar_tiny by Patrick L. Kennedy on in Games Comment 543 comments

Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, Jun 22, 2008 1:40 PM EDT


Houston at RAYS

1:40; FSN Florida
RAYS RADIO/1250 AM

Pitching Matchup:


 IP ERA + K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 OPS WHIP G/F P/IP
HOU RH B. Backe
 83.0 4.99
 84 6.18 4.01 1.54 2.06 .882 1.58 0.87 16.49
RAYS LH S. Kazmir
 56.1 1.76
235 9.75 3.20 3.05 0.32 .528 1.01 0.80 16.58

RH Brandon Backe, Houston-Former Ray Brandon Backe makes his triumphant return to Tropicana Field after a five year wait, and the Rays just couldn't be happier to see him. Despite his shortcomings this year, however, Backe's performance over the last several years with the Astros definitely makes them the winners of the 2003 trade that brought IF Geoff Blum to the Rays. Incidentally, Blum is now back in Houston by way of San Diego as Backe's teammate, but good riddance to him. Backe, on the other hand, has turned in some decent years for Houston and has proven to be quite the value for an 18th round draft pick.

Not that I possess any great deal of nostalgia for the guy, but his story is the perfect encapsulation of Chuck LaMar's tenure. He always was excellent at scouting out talent, but once those players signed on the dotted line, they were mishandled all the way to the major league level, if they got there at all. And at that point, following their inevitable failure, they were shipped out for pennies on the dollar. Take Backe, for instance. He was drafted in '98 as a position player, without much success, and was converted to a pitcher before the 2001 season. Only a little more than a year later, he was in the major leagues, having been sped through A- Charleston, A+ Bakersfield, and AA Orlando all in the course of 2001. He was called up straight to the majors from Orlando in 2002, and predictably failed. He spent some time in Durham during the 2003 season before being getting called up to the majors for his longest stint as a Devil Ray.

Backe was and is nothing special. That is obvious. In fact, he probably wouldn't even have a place on the present Rays pitching staff. But the terrible way the Rays handled him, and the haste in which they dealt him squandered value needlessly. Backe wasn't a top prospect, and he never had an ERA under 4.64 in the Rays' system above A-ball, yet the team's brass felt the need to rush him to the major league level in some absurd quest to not lose 100 games. In the grand scheme of things, losing Backe was not the end of the world. Furthermore, the incompetence that marked LaMar's tenure is well-known, and he has long since departed from the organization. Still, Backe is coming off of two straight above-average years with the Astros. That's nothing to sneeze at, and his departure was regrettable.

Still, for all of the regrets we may have about the past, Backe is sure doing nothing in the present, and that he has kept his ERA under 5 while pitching so poorly this year is nothing short of incredible. Surrendering more than two homers per nine innings as he is doing is not all that surprising when you are a flyball pitcher in a bandbox. Add in a walk rate of 4.01 per nine, and you have a guy who will put men on and give you a chance to drive them home with the gopher ball. Hopefully the Rays can take advantage of Backe's obvious weaknesses and take the series today.

LH Scott Kazmir, RAYS-Kazmir makes his first career start against his hometown Houston Astros, a fact that is entirely unimportant given that the game isn't even in his hometown. Still, I needed a filler to transition in, and so having dispensed of that useless factoid, let's move on to the actual point: Scott Kazmir is really, really good, especially at home where he has a 0.59 ERA this season in 30.2 innings of work.

Kazmir has been achieving success this year by working in his off-speed pitches more frequently and with better timing to complement the increased usage of his fastball. He has also adjusted his approach on the mound. Instead of running up high pitch counts trying to retire batters on strikeouts, Kazmir has been willing to pitch to contact when the need hits him, and he's been able to do that very well. While Kazmir did recede back into his inefficient ways last time out against the Cubs, more broadly he has been a changed pitcher this season, and the results are positive. 

Another thing that I've noticed is that Kazmir finally seems to be back fully healthy from the shoulder injury that forced him to miss the first month of the season. It was obvious watching Kazmir in his first couple starts off the DL that he wasn't at full strength and that he didn't quite have his entire repertoire with him. Over his last six or so starts, you've seen him get back to normal though. His pitch counts have stood at 106 or higher in each of his past four starts, and his strikeout rate over his last six starts generally mirrors the Kazmir that we're used to.

Certainly Kazmir has not been infallible this season. While his strikeout and walk rates are encouraging for the power pitcher that we've come to expect, he is getting far too lucky on fly balls. While his G:F stands at a decidedly unimpressive 0.80, he has given up just two home runs thus far in the season. Flyball pitchers to that extreme do not sustain that rate for very long, so one of two things will happen. Either Kazmir will start getting groundball outs, or he will start giving up more home runs. It's that simple. And given that opponents are hitting line drives off of him at a greater rate than any other year in his career, I'd say that Kazmir is due for regression on multiple fronts.

Still, with Tropicana Field playing like a pitcher's park, there is hope that Kazmir can stave off a lot of the regression coming to his core statistics, at least for now. I wouldn't bank on that as a plan, however, with the Trop's history of playing fairly neutral over the long haul. Kazmir will need to make adjustments to sustain his current success. He might be able to keep it up against teams that have Michael Bourn leading off, and for our sake hopefully he will, but you can't count on this run of luck to continue for the rest of the season.

Starting Lineups:

Houston
CF Michael Bourn
2B Kazuo Matusi
SS
 Miguel Tejada
1B Lance Berkman
DH
 Carlos Lee
RF Hunter Pence
3B Ty Wigginton
LF Reggie Abercrombie
C Humberto Quintero
RAYS
2B Akinori Iwamura
LF Carl Crawford
1B Willy Aybar
RF Eric Hinske
3B Evan Longoria
DH Cliff Floyd
C
 Dioner Navarro
CF Gabe Gross
SS Jason Bartlett

  • The lack of B.J. Upton in the batting order is not a positive development for a team going into a game with the expectation of winning. Nonetheless, Joe Maddon chooses to give the otherwise-durable center fielder the day off today, which is understandable. Hopefully he'll come back fresh and ready for the Marlins' series. The move puts Gabe Gross in center for the Rays, which should be interesting, while Eric Hinske flashes his "defensive" "prowess" in right. You definitely lose something on defense when you take a good corner outfielder and move him to center, opening up a spot for a defensively-inept right fielder. Of course, playing Carl Crawford in center would be the best choice, but we all know that won't happen. Elsewhere, let's just hope Willy Aybar's respite from a slump last night continues into today, as he's batting in the No. 3 hole.

GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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upton!

thank god kazmir is pitching, that lineup looks ugly

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 1:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

great

we are playing like idiots, always fun

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This is a horrible start

Plus we have a horrible lineup and a horrible defensive alignment

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good

1 more out plz

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 1:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I LOVE KAZMIR

If I was a woman/homo, I would marry that man

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 1:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

This lineup is worse.

Ichiro RF

Willie Bloomquist 2B

Raul Ibanez LF

Jose Vidro 1B

Jeremy Reed CF

Yuniesky Betancourt SS

Jeff Clement C

Miguel Cairo 3B

Carlos Silva P

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 1:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

1 pitch, 1 out

happens to damn often

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 1:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

well that was a shit inning.

are these guys in a rush to get home?

by GenghisJohn on Jun 22, 2008 1:55 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Remember

apparently the team parties real hard saturday nights…

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have no problem with them having fun

They are young guys. Thats what they should do.

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

True

I’m sure they do it fairly intelligently. I have no problem with it. They shouldn’t get hammered Sat nights with a Sunday afternoon game. But I have no problem with them getting blitzed on Friday night for example.

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

nice

1 pitch out for Kaz

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 1:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

K

he is just so cool

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 1:59 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

KKKK

Kazmir is trying to get the fans pizza again!

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

That wasn't what I was saying. I was talking about that specific at bat.

Even CC would have walked that at bat. The pitches weren’t even close.

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've never said this.

However I know you’ll try and parlay this into BA being more valuable than OBP, which is false.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Overall OBP

But I’d argue that it largely depends on what part of the order someone is hitting in and his role. Especially if the BA translates into a high slugging percentage.

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For what it's worth

Team OBP has a higher correlation to team SLG than team BA since 1998 (300 team seasons)

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

lol

The first inning 3 guys made Backe throw a total of 5 pitches. Hinske just watched 4 straight balls.

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Then Longoria gets ahead and gets a ball to crush. Nice.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 22, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LONGO!!!

I LOVE HIM TOO

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

FLOYD

fucking A. I am enjoying this inning

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

damn Navarro

that’s a buzz kill

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:09 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Bruce k'd

No score still in Yanks game

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:13 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

5 already!

god this man is so good

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:14 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

awesome

lets score more runs

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

HBP

the only way we get Barty on the basepaths

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

almost

but Aki doesn’t have Longo’s power

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Cueto is dealing so far

Not quite as good as Kazmir though

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

annoying Matsui

he is the only one who has made Kaz look human

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh noes!
Barring a change of heart, the partnership between Mike Francesa and Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo is not expected to survive to see its 19th anniversary Sept. 5, industry sources with knowledge of the situation said.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

STOP WITH THE FOULS

Kazmir always runs into this AB’s

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

whats with the constant heat

a change with K him right here

ok, nvm inning over

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:39 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yanks up 1-0

but Pettite has a very high pitch count through 5 and their pen isn’t gonna dominate anyone until the 9th. come on reds!

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

wtf

that wasn’t even close

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Navarro with a hard liner

Gross sucks another hit.. and Navarro out by a mile at home. Good job Foley!

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 22, 2008 2:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Root for rainouts...

Doubleheaders are murder on a bullpen

by td32 on Jun 22, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This is the last time they are playing Cincy...

BUt they are both off tomorrow so that is when they’d make it up

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That would work

No off day for the Yankees!!!

by td32 on Jun 22, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

fucking fouls

happens to often with Kazmir

throw him the change!

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:54 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

gotta love Abercrombie

I remember him always doing that with the Marlins

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 2:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Wonder if Howell is available tonight

Probably Balfour, Wheeler, then Percy

by td32 on Jun 22, 2008 3:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

not that im upset about it

but when was the last time they used Hammel?(dont want them going near him today)

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 3:04 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Astros announcers just called Crawford a hacker.. so of course, he works a walk.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 22, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

good

Kazmir gets more than a 5 min break now

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 3:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well I said lots of players, not most players.

But yes if you steal 3rd with 2 outs without a major goal (such as double stealing to get a 2nd man in scoring position) then you are an idiot. Especially if you have speed at 2nd and would score from a base hit anyways.

by matthan on Jun 22, 2008 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is a point...

But only if you are 100% sure you’ll make it. CC was trying to pad his stats

by td32 on Jun 22, 2008 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

whew

that was close

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

ugh

too many 3-2 counts….

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 3:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yay

we got rid of Berkman again. always so awesome

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 3:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

no W for Kazmir

lets hope the Rays can get one

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 3:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Ugly series.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 22, 2008 3:27 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i love Balfour

some offense please?

by joeybw on Jun 22, 2008 3:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs