6/22: HOU (34-41) at RAYS (44-30)
by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 22, 2008 1:15 PM EDT
in Game Threads
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PrintHouston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, Jun 22, 2008 1:40 PM EDT
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Pitching Matchup:
| IP | ERA | + | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | OPS | WHIP | G/F | P/IP | ||
| HOU | RH B. Backe |
83.0 | 4.99 |
84 | 6.18 | 4.01 | 1.54 | 2.06 | .882 | 1.58 | 0.87 | 16.49 |
| RAYS | LH S. Kazmir |
56.1 | 1.76 |
235 | 9.75 | 3.20 | 3.05 | 0.32 | .528 | 1.01 | 0.80 | 16.58 |
RH Brandon Backe, Houston-Former Ray Brandon Backe makes his triumphant return to Tropicana Field after a five year wait, and the Rays just couldn't be happier to see him. Despite his shortcomings this year, however, Backe's performance over the last several years with the Astros definitely makes them the winners of the 2003 trade that brought IF Geoff Blum to the Rays. Incidentally, Blum is now back in Houston by way of San Diego as Backe's teammate, but good riddance to him. Backe, on the other hand, has turned in some decent years for Houston and has proven to be quite the value for an 18th round draft pick.
Not that I possess any great deal of nostalgia for the guy, but his story is the perfect encapsulation of Chuck LaMar's tenure. He always was excellent at scouting out talent, but once those players signed on the dotted line, they were mishandled all the way to the major league level, if they got there at all. And at that point, following their inevitable failure, they were shipped out for pennies on the dollar. Take Backe, for instance. He was drafted in '98 as a position player, without much success, and was converted to a pitcher before the 2001 season. Only a little more than a year later, he was in the major leagues, having been sped through A- Charleston, A+ Bakersfield, and AA Orlando all in the course of 2001. He was called up straight to the majors from Orlando in 2002, and predictably failed. He spent some time in Durham during the 2003 season before being getting called up to the majors for his longest stint as a Devil Ray.
Backe was and is nothing special. That is obvious. In fact, he probably wouldn't even have a place on the present Rays pitching staff. But the terrible way the Rays handled him, and the haste in which they dealt him squandered value needlessly. Backe wasn't a top prospect, and he never had an ERA under 4.64 in the Rays' system above A-ball, yet the team's brass felt the need to rush him to the major league level in some absurd quest to not lose 100 games. In the grand scheme of things, losing Backe was not the end of the world. Furthermore, the incompetence that marked LaMar's tenure is well-known, and he has long since departed from the organization. Still, Backe is coming off of two straight above-average years with the Astros. That's nothing to sneeze at, and his departure was regrettable.
Still, for all of the regrets we may have about the past, Backe is sure doing nothing in the present, and that he has kept his ERA under 5 while pitching so poorly this year is nothing short of incredible. Surrendering more than two homers per nine innings as he is doing is not all that surprising when you are a flyball pitcher in a bandbox. Add in a walk rate of 4.01 per nine, and you have a guy who will put men on and give you a chance to drive them home with the gopher ball. Hopefully the Rays can take advantage of Backe's obvious weaknesses and take the series today.
LH Scott Kazmir, RAYS-Kazmir makes his first career start against his hometown Houston Astros, a fact that is entirely unimportant given that the game isn't even in his hometown. Still, I needed a filler to transition in, and so having dispensed of that useless factoid, let's move on to the actual point: Scott Kazmir is really, really good, especially at home where he has a 0.59 ERA this season in 30.2 innings of work.
Kazmir has been achieving success this year by working in his off-speed pitches more frequently and with better timing to complement the increased usage of his fastball. He has also adjusted his approach on the mound. Instead of running up high pitch counts trying to retire batters on strikeouts, Kazmir has been willing to pitch to contact when the need hits him, and he's been able to do that very well. While Kazmir did recede back into his inefficient ways last time out against the Cubs, more broadly he has been a changed pitcher this season, and the results are positive.
Another thing that I've noticed is that Kazmir finally seems to be back fully healthy from the shoulder injury that forced him to miss the first month of the season. It was obvious watching Kazmir in his first couple starts off the DL that he wasn't at full strength and that he didn't quite have his entire repertoire with him. Over his last six or so starts, you've seen him get back to normal though. His pitch counts have stood at 106 or higher in each of his past four starts, and his strikeout rate over his last six starts generally mirrors the Kazmir that we're used to.
Certainly Kazmir has not been infallible this season. While his strikeout and walk rates are encouraging for the power pitcher that we've come to expect, he is getting far too lucky on fly balls. While his G:F stands at a decidedly unimpressive 0.80, he has given up just two home runs thus far in the season. Flyball pitchers to that extreme do not sustain that rate for very long, so one of two things will happen. Either Kazmir will start getting groundball outs, or he will start giving up more home runs. It's that simple. And given that opponents are hitting line drives off of him at a greater rate than any other year in his career, I'd say that Kazmir is due for regression on multiple fronts.
Still, with Tropicana Field playing like a pitcher's park, there is hope that Kazmir can stave off a lot of the regression coming to his core statistics, at least for now. I wouldn't bank on that as a plan, however, with the Trop's history of playing fairly neutral over the long haul. Kazmir will need to make adjustments to sustain his current success. He might be able to keep it up against teams that have Michael Bourn leading off, and for our sake hopefully he will, but you can't count on this run of luck to continue for the rest of the season.
Starting Lineups:
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- The lack of B.J. Upton in the batting order is not a positive development for a team going into a game with the expectation of winning. Nonetheless, Joe Maddon chooses to give the otherwise-durable center fielder the day off today, which is understandable. Hopefully he'll come back fresh and ready for the Marlins' series. The move puts Gabe Gross in center for the Rays, which should be interesting, while Eric Hinske flashes his "defensive" "prowess" in right. You definitely lose something on defense when you take a good corner outfielder and move him to center, opening up a spot for a defensively-inept right fielder. Of course, playing Carl Crawford in center would be the best choice, but we all know that won't happen. Elsewhere, let's just hope Willy Aybar's respite from a slump last night continues into today, as he's batting in the No. 3 hole.
GO RAYS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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This is a horrible start
Plus we have a horrible lineup and a horrible defensive alignment
I mean Gross in center
Christ I’d much rather take a “slight” hit offensively and have Ruggs play center and Gross play in right.
Fine. I could care less whether Gross plays CF or RF with Ruggs. The point is getting Hinske out of the lineup
I like Ruggs more in center, but Hinske is just pathetic in the field. That was the point.
This lineup is worse.
Ichiro RF
Willie Bloomquist 2B
Raul Ibanez LF
Jose Vidro 1B
Jeremy Reed CF
Yuniesky Betancourt SS
Jeff Clement C
Miguel Cairo 3B
Carlos Silva P
2.5 is probably a more challenging number.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but CC fouls off pitches sometimes
Normally he tries to end it in one pitch
His at-bats go like this:
Swinging strike
Foul
In play, out(s) recorded
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
well that was a shit inning.
are these guys in a rush to get home?
Remember
apparently the team parties real hard saturday nights…
Was it Mantle or DiMaggio who got serviced under the bleachers?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
There was a letter somewhere online about some event at Yankee Stadium
75 years maybe? I think it was DiMaggio, and it asked for their favorite moment, well he wrote about that time behind the bleachers.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I have no problem with them having fun
They are young guys. Thats what they should do.
Which really makes you appreciate the 20 K games within 9 innings.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems Kaz is throwing harder and harder every game
At least on a more consistent basis.
Hinske sees right around 3.9 pitches per P/A.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That wasn't what I was saying. I was talking about that specific at bat.
Even CC would have walked that at bat. The pitches weren’t even close.
I've never said this.
However I know you’ll try and parlay this into BA being more valuable than OBP, which is false.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
If you say so
Hence why I bookmarked this. Hopefully I’ll never have to use it.
Overall OBP
But I’d argue that it largely depends on what part of the order someone is hitting in and his role. Especially if the BA translates into a high slugging percentage.
For what it's worth
Team OBP has a higher correlation to team SLG than team BA since 1998 (300 team seasons)
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
The first inning 3 guys made Backe throw a total of 5 pitches. Hinske just watched 4 straight balls.
Ellsbury/Francisco deserve consideration.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
He's on pace for around that number, isn't he?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions
If Longoria out homers him by 20 and out rbis him by a large amount it shouldn't matter if he gets 70 sb
Especially if Longoria can hit around .275
I don't see Evan raising his BA to .275
His 80% PECOTA had him at .283.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It should give him the trophy.
At least he’s a legit candidate, not like Delmon.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Longoria!
Sorry, delayed reaction, was cookin’ pig.
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:12 PM EDT reply actions
I am going to be in Florida from the 29th to the 7th, but I will try to go see price and give a report on his first home start
I can have a buddy go to the game in Mobile on thursday i’d guess
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Have to love the pitch count so far for Kaz
& Backe!
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions
Right
means we get to see [backe] longer.
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
It was a good pitch to hit
But Bartlett had that bag stolen
Damn. Well, the inning was okay.
Good process will = good results.
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:26 PM EDT reply actions
bs. thats a business model not depo’s model
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Cueto is dealing so far
Not quite as good as Kazmir though
this has nothing to do with this game
but i really hate chris berman
Oh noes!
Barring a change of heart, the partnership between Mike Francesa and Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo is not expected to survive to see its 19th anniversary Sept. 5, industry sources with knowledge of the situation said.
A. Lind 11 pitch AB in pit. killing snell.
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions
Yanks up 1-0
but Pettite has a very high pitch count through 5 and their pen isn’t gonna dominate anyone until the 9th. come on reds!
fish will do it tonight
have the faith
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? I'm JUST as concerned...
But the Yankees are still the Yankees. Their offense can still be scary…. Hopefully their pitching continues to suck..
I have confidence that Hank will force a bad move
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think a bad move might help them this year, but hurt them in the future
Trading for Sabathia, Harden, etc… BUt giving up the farm.
Snelll!!!
Wow
3.1IP, 86p, 4er, 8 hits, 4 walks, 1 wp
by Summer Biscuits Associate on Jun 22, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions
oops dind't mean to reply
But Snell does suck this year
Navarro with a hard liner
Gross sucks another hit.. and Navarro out by a mile at home. Good job Foley!
Longlorious.
Root for rainouts...
Doubleheaders are murder on a bullpen
This is the last time they are playing Cincy...
BUt they are both off tomorrow so that is when they’d make it up
Aki had a shot at that...looked like he slowed up near the end
Won’t matter with Bourn up though
That is how it will always be with Kaz
Thats just his style
Wonder if Howell is available tonight
Probably Balfour, Wheeler, then Percy
not that im upset about it
but when was the last time they used Hammel?(dont want them going near him today)
Because the pitches werent even close
I’ll take it
The foul was borderline
Everything else was low, but over the plate with the exception of the away pitch.
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well I said lots of players, not most players.
But yes if you steal 3rd with 2 outs without a major goal (such as double stealing to get a 2nd man in scoring position) then you are an idiot. Especially if you have speed at 2nd and would score from a base hit anyways.
There is a point...
But only if you are 100% sure you’ll make it. CC was trying to pad his stats
pressure on the SP again
We always make our pitchers give up 1 run or less. How about an offense explosion 1 day
Im again, listening to WHNZ and not able to watch the game >.<!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hate brighthouse orlando.
How are we not winning this game?
This was like a guaranteed victory.
we are not winning
because Carlos Lee is not like Reggie Abercrombie and Kazmir treated them the same way
Balfour is so awesome
i wish we were fucking losing though. Howell needs to come in, if he does, we will def win so he can be 6-0
i wish we were fucking losing though
What the fuck, dude?
by R.J. Anderson on Jun 22, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
we need to come back
we can’t lose a home series to the damn astros. not to mention how close it would of been to a sweep
the 9th is going to be interesting if they do not bring in valverde
in that case they’ll have a lefty go in to face gomes and we’ll have to PH for him. but then we’ll have bartlett hitting next.
Big pitch here
Upton hitting with a man on base will help us tremendously
This team can't hit
Pena won’t help. He’s having a lousy year, and he’s hobbled.
I think he'll come back stronger
I think this team needs to start playing small ball better. We need to really manufacture runs
Small ball = Win close games
The Rays have played small ball. They’ve won 31 of 34 games when they’ve allowed three or less runs. They need to start hitting more homeruns. Everyone complains about the Rays not scoring a lot of runs but then wants them to play small ball. Small ball means scoring less runs but having them be more meaningful. That’s what they have done all season. If you want them to score more runs then they won’t be playing small ball.
I disagree. Small ball implies that teams are stealing bases and bunting men over
While we steal quite a bit it is rare we steal late in the game in order to get a man in scoring position. More importantly we rarely bunt to move a man over. That is small ball. Currently we don’t score many runs because we aren’t hitting many 3 run home runs that we are relying on.
Exactly
The reasons the runs haven’t been scored is because they haven’t been hitting homeruns. It isn’t a need for small ball, it is a need for more people to be hitting the ball hard. Runs score on hard hit balls. Runs don’t score often on bunts.
We don't have a team of home runs hitters
If we are down 1 run late in the game we need to bunt a guy to 2nd base. We cannot rely on anyone on this team to hit a home run outside of Longoria and Pena. I’d have everyone on the team bunt in that scenario, except for those two and Upton. We force our team to string together 3 hits in a row in order to score instead needing just two. Plus add in the fact our team strikes out entirely too much and we never move runners station to station. So essentially we end up being a team that moves 1 base at a time with a high strike out rate. That isn’t going to get it done.
Pathetic
Why in the world was Crawford stealing 3rd with 2 outs?
I was at the game today
From the moment Aki meandered to right and fucked up the catch on Kaz Matsui’s “double”, I knew it would be a very bad day. He deserved an error for that crap.
Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
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