Cleveland would even offer a negotiation window. They have to move him though because just getting 2 picks for him after the season isn’t worth it. Take 2-3 prospects who are already on their way to developing and let the receiving team get the 2 pick compensation if Sabathia doesn’t resign. Coming off a Cy Young last year and pitching the way he has since 5/1, there is no way we could resign him. He’s easily going to command 100m+ on the open market.

Agreed.

He is something like 0-6 with a 5+ ERA in his interleague starts over the last three years.

We need a right-handed bat. Preferably to do the job in RF that we currently platoon for.

Plus he’d be a rental, since it would take stupid money to re-sign him after 2009

Hmm, the year is 2008, isn’t it?

If so, he’s absolutely the best fit.

He’s often injured, he has a bad attitude, he’s expensive, he’s old(er).

makes me a little more open to the idea. I would still be opposed to offering too much for the guy.

Overall I doubt it matters. The Rays are likely just trying to bring up the asking price so that the Yankees screw themselves over by giving up the farm for the guy.

Unless the Rays can get Sabathia more cheaply than I anticipate, trading for him will significantly hurt them for the next 1-4 years, when they will have a playoff-caliber team every season. It’s not worth impairing yourself in the future for a rental player, especially when the future is so bright.

Also,

Matt Holliday’s stats away from Coors Field, from 2005-2007: .281/.343/.466.
Gabe Gross, this season: .246/.326/.447
Cliff Floyd, this season: 257/.342/.475

Is Holliday better? Of course. But not by that much. And almost certainly not enough to justify the prospects it would take to get him (not to mention salary considerations).

Finally, Zack Greinke is far, far better than Edwin Jackson, both this year and most likely in the future.

If our system is as stocked as all the experts seem to believe, we can afford to lose a top prospect and still have a great future to look forward to. And yes, the name of the game is winning the World Series, not winning the Baseball America rankings. I believe that a lot of people are reading a false dichotomy into the Sabathia choice….i.e. I believe this front office is smart enough to go out and get the players we need without completely mortgaging the future.

I really do not think it is a good idea to give up anything of significant value for Bradley. Just way too much of an injury risk (part of the reason he hasn’t missed much time this year is that the Rangers are DHing him).

Additionally,
Bradley this year at home: .390/.504/.830
Bradley this year on the road: .277/.405/.454

Unfortunately for the Rays, I don’t see any of those guys being put on the block (except maaaybe Willingham) – especially not in exchange for prospects.

There is absolutely no way to know if another starting pitcher would win the WS for us. Look at Oakland in the early 2000’s or Atlanta in the 90’s, starting pitching helps you to win, but it doesn’t guarantee anything.

Does trading for Sabathia improve the Rays’s chances of winning the world series this year (assuming they don’t give up anyone from the ML roster)? Yes. Does it guarantee a playoff appearance, let alone a WS championship? Far from it.

The Indians are unlikely to deal Sabathia at all; they certainly won’t deal him for another few weeks. So, optimistically, the Rays could get, let’s say 13 starts (3 in July, 5 in August, 5 in September) from CC. Let’s say, also optimistically, that CC posts a 2.50 ERA during that time and averages 7 innings a start (both are very optimistic assumptions). That would be 91 innings pitched, and let’s say Sabathia surrenders 25 runs (that’s a 2.47 ERA).

Let’s say that Sabathia replaces Edwin Jackson (or Sonnanstine) in the rotation, either of whom would, pessimistically, post an ERA of 5.00 in that time (both currently have ERAs lower than this). Assuming a 5.00 ERA, this pitcher would allow 50 runs (that’s a 4.95 ERA).

This is absolute best case scenario. We’re assuming Sabathia to have a lower ERA then he currently does (and lower than he did last year, when he won the Cy Young); we’re assuming Sabathia to last 7 innings per start; we’re assuming the Rays get 13 starts out of him; we’re assuming that whoever he replaces would post a 5.00 ERA (unlikely, because both Jackson and Sonnanstine have ERAs below 5.00 and because some of the innings would go to relievers, who have even better ERAs). And yet, even with all of these very-optimistic assumptions, we’re talking about Sabathia saving the Rays 25 runs.

Now, I don’t mean to downplay the importance of 25 runs – that’s 2.5 wins. However, if the Rays would have finished three games out of a playoff spot without Sabathia, they most likely still would miss the playoffs even with him.

And that’s only getting to the playoffs, let alone winning a World Series. Although I would argue that because the playoffs are such a crapshoot, the end-game should be getting to the playoffs. Sabathia, at the very most, would add 2.5 wins to the Rays over the last two-and-a-half months. Is that worth giving up 18 cost-controlled years of three excellent prospects?

I too do not believe the Indians will deal him, and that makes this whole exercise pointless. Actually, no it doesn’t, because it’s fun!

But anyway, I think the Rays are more likely to sign Sabathia after this season than they are to trade for him. Trading for him is unlikely to help them sign him, and it would require three top prospects.

However, I think the Rays are unlikely to sign any pitcher to a high-dollar long-term contract, because A) it’s hardly ever a good idea, especially for a small-market team (seriously, can you name the last large contract given to a pitcher that has even remotely worked out? Derek Lowe, perhaps? Mike Mussina?), and B) they have so much pitching in their system (even assuming many pitchers do not pan out, for injury and/or performance reasons, the Rays still have such an abundance that they can find five quality starters).

I think it’s much more likely that the Rays look to spend money on their offense, which is both weaker and easier to predict (and therefore less risky).

When was the last time a FA pitcher that signed a sizable contract lived up to their cost? I just don’t see it happening. Even Santana is looking like he isn’t worth the money he got, and he was more dominant and projectable than CC. Santana is an athletic pitcher that should maintain his abilities longer than a fat CC.

The problem, rather, is trading prospects for a pitcher who will make 10-13 starts.