Does Upton think he's Wade Boggs?

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 1:54 PM EDT Comment 40 comments

A couple years ago I read an article by Bill Simmons talking about Wade Boggs' and Jim Rice's candidacy for the Hall of Fame. Sports Guy basically said that Jim Rice was always remembered for getting the big hit and Wade was disliked for having no problem walking in the same situation.

This came to mind when thinking about B.J. this season. A day doesn't go by when I read something about how Upton isn't having a good (or great year). How he isn't playing up to last year and really needs to improve. Everytime I try to understand it and I just never can.

BJ is hitting .284/.397/.424 and .308/.467/.415 with RISP. Sure he isn't hitting for the power he did last year but he sure isn't playing poorly.

What does stick out, and what always seems to stick out in the minds of fans, is that BJ really doesn't have the game changing at bats. He isn't one to get the big hit. I immediately thought of the Wade Boggs commentary. Is B.J. our Wade Boggs? At least in those terms.

The numbers say so. Upton has 21 non-intentional walks in 90 plate appearances with RISP. That's a BB in every 4 PAs or a walk 23% of the time. That's the best in baseball with players having 75 PA with RISP. Removing HBP, the top five are:

1. B.J. Upton - 24.14%

2. Brian Giles - 23.38%

3. Lyle Overbay - 23.29%

4. Chipper Jones -22.86%

5. Milton Bradley - 22.39%

What does this all mean? Probably nothing. But it could also mean a few things:

- Upton tightens up with RISP. His walk rate goes from about 16% to 24%. He makes the pitcher come to him or he doesn't swing.

- His RBI totals will be down. If he doesn't swing with RISP than he won't drive in the runs.

- The hitters behind him will have more opportunities with RISP. As the batters behind him start to hit better the teams runs scored should continue to rise.

- He will always be a tough person to judge. Is he selfish or is he a team player? Does he not want the glory of the RBI or is he trying to keep his stats up by not offering at anything he doesn't like?

I guess this is one of many things that makes him unique and one of many things that will alter the judgment of him.

One last thing, Wade Boggs walked in about 15% of these situations, so he has nothing on BJ.

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A day doesn't go by when I read something about how Upton isn't having a good (or great year). How he isn't playing up to last year and really needs to improve

You wouldn’t happen to have a link to some of these people who say this, would you? I just want to make sure I avoid that kind of stupidity.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

As for the actual post.

This is some good stuff, I honestly hadn’t noticed it.

I think he does what you’d want a hitter to do, wait on his pitch. I know some have said walks are selfish—in fact I just ran into this an hour or two ago.

If the guys behind him were driving in runs all wombat style wouldn’t B.J. be applauded for his approach?

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1) "wombat style"

2) There is something to be said about swinging in hitter friendly counts with RISP. I’ve watched Upton walk on 5 pitches with a runner on third. That’s kind of stretching the point a bit. I love walks, but we are leaving an incredible number of people on base this year, and Upton is one of the most capable bats in our lineup.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 25, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes but

Is a walk better than swinging at a bad pitch and grounding out? Logically if B.J. takes his walk there’s a 100% chance he’s reaching base, if he puts a bad ball into play there’s a 30% chance. Of course he can’t drive the run in, but he also could end the inning. Depending on the situation I’d say the walk is worth taking unless he’s really just being picky.

Taking a 3-0 fastball is one thing, taking a 1-0 hanger is another.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Plus its not like the 9 hitter is coming up behind him. The cleanup hitter should be able to get in those runners more effectively than BJ swinging at a ball.

BJ is one of the most patient hitters I have ever seen. He seems to take a decent amount of hittable pitches and strikes out looking more than most. Sometimes it’s frustrating to watch, but I really think he has a good approach at the plate.

by Sveet on Jun 25, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"I love walks, but we are leaving an incredible number of people on base this year, and Upton is one of the most capable bats in our lineup."

This is the argument I was looking for. It’s the dividing line. Should he become more agressive or should he become more patient. I think it’s circumstantial. If a man is on third how many outs are there and what’s the score?

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who's behind him should also factor in

If Upton has an OPS over .1 points better I think a more aggressive approach would be fine (assuming his OPS isn’t like 1.200) but if he’s got a capable hitter behind him the walk would work fine for me.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think if he's kept in the 3 or 4 hole he needs to swing a bit more.

That having been said I hate him there. He could be Ricky Henny at the top of the lineup.

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 25, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm becoming more and more accepting of this.

The more I look at stats like these the more I’d like him higher. Not one, but two would be great. But then what do you do with Carl? He’s a worse option than upton at 2 and is worse than Aki at one. Unless you move Aki to nine and Carl to one, which wouldn’t be terrible.

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just bat CC third,

he’s usually excellent swinging the bat with RISP, doesn’t K all that much, and has XBH power to drive guys in…

Aki
Upton
CC
Pena
Longo
Floyd
Navi
RF
Bartlett

by davidsmarch on Jun 25, 2008 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Switch Longoria and Carl please.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Upton hacked

at a pitch that was ball 4 last night with the bases loaded…in a 3-0 count. I dont like that at all, more so when the freaking guy couldnt throw a strike for the life of him.

That said, I like my 3 & 4 hitters to drive in runs. Maybe he can teach CC to take a freaking pitch from time to time.

by PriceMultiCyYoungs on Jun 25, 2008 2:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It was 3-1

And I’d like my 3-4 batters to drive in runs but I also prefer them not making outs. Less outs generally equals more runs.

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is futile

for batters to expand their strike zone just because men are on base. All that does is a) get them to make more outs and b) get into bad habits. Keep Ted Williams injunction in mind: “Get a good pitch to hit”. Note, he did not say get a strike to hit, but get a good pitch to hit. It is foolish to swing at a pitcher’s pitch early in the count just to try to drive in a run. Ordinarily you will fail anyway, and on a ball or a pitcher’s strike, will fail more often.

I think you are ignoring other possible explanations for the stats you present. One of them is that perhaps pitchers are afraid of Upton in RISP situations and are pitching more carefully to him, refusing to throw good hitter’s strikes. That leaves Upton a choice of remaining selective or flailing at pitches he can’t handle.

by bobr on Jun 25, 2008 3:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think you mistook my point

I don’t think Upton is doing anything wrong. I think this explains why his RBI numbers aren’t as gaudy. Also may explain why some don’t think he is having as good a year as he is.

To look further into the numbers:
Man on third: 1 for 6 with seven walks and three sac flys and 2 Ks.
Man on second: 8 for 22 with 11 walks and 4 Ks.
Man on second and third: 2 for 6 with no non-IB and 2 ks.

So with first base open he is 11 for 34 with 18 walks and 8 Ks.

Man on first + second he is 3 for 13 with a walk and 0 ks.
Man on first + third he is 2 for 8 with three walk and 1 K.
Bases loaded he is 4 for 10 with no walks and 2 Ks.

So with first base occupied and RISP he is 9 for 31 with 4 walks and 3 Ks.

The numbers seem to back the fact that pitchers are very selective when pitching to him with RISP, especially with first base open. That also seems to justify that BJ takes what’s given to him and doesn’t press.

One thing I did not notice before is that Upton is not striking out at nearly the same rate with RISP as he is any other time. With RISP he is striking out 17% of the time and roughly 30% of all other at bats.

Basically Upton is doing everything right with RISP, he just needs the people behind him to do the same.

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He ain't no Wade

until he can put down about 75 miller lites in a single binge.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 25, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 25, 2008 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1-900-GET-WADE

Greatest phone number ever.

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His greatest moments include:

“That time I got drunk and banged 3 ugly chicks in one night in Oakland”

by Top Gun Numba 1 on Jun 25, 2008 4:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Not related to this, but Upton has a blind spot on the inside corner, particularly around the knees. He gets called out on strikes on a fastball in that spot an awful lot and never thinks it’s a strike. Just fixing that would probably give a notable boost to his overall production.

by Jim Wisinski on Jun 25, 2008 5:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good observation...

Strikes Looking:

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Despite the fact I know the URL messed up, I laughed.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

damn it...

I thought I got it… Oh well… I’ll try again later…

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

See if this works...

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That does support my observation but even that probably doesn’t convey the full picture since that also includes all the strikes he takes normally in the process of the at-bat. Probably not possible but I’d love to see just the strikes he has taken for called strike three.

by Jim Wisinski on Jun 25, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

HE NEVER TAKES A STRIKE!!!

the man has the eyes of a bald eagle…

by davidsmarch on Jun 25, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More Wade Relationships

If Beej says its a ball its a GD ball.

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 25, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He is having a solid season

But it isn’t as good as it should be. He is underperforming. Now don’t take that to mean that i think he is a bad player, or that he is playing badly. He just isn’t playing up to his standards. He has what 5HR? That just isn’t going to cut it at this point in the 3 hole. His current style fits to be a leadoff hitter.

When I analyze a player I take into much more into account than just OPS. Their role, such as where they hit in the line up, plays a part. And as a #3 hitter, for whatever reason, he just hasn’t been up to par. Especially lately. His current statistics would make him one of the best leadoff hitters in the game right this second.

I wonder how much his shoulder is hurting his power. If he gets the power back then he can be one of the best 3 hitters in the game. We don’t need 40 bombs, but he is on pace to barely crack double digits.

by matthan on Jun 25, 2008 6:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're taking the past into account over the future...

Upton has lacked HRs, that’s really it. His K’s are down and his walks are up. He’s maturing as a hitter and just has not produced homeruns.

Judging a player based purely on the number of homeruns is a mistake. He’s hitting about 6% less flyballs this year but his HR/F rate has plummeted this year. That won’t continue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him have a really hot month and finish around 20 HRs.

I don’t argue that his current numbers were better suited for leadoff, but will his future numbers be the same? In an ideal lineup he’d be a great leadoff, I just feel he’s much more suited for #3 on this team.

by tallyray on Jun 25, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well when analyzing someones season we have to discuss what has happened in the past...

And his lack of power is certainly eye catching. I too think he will turn it around especially if his shoulder has been bugging him. But if we are going to talk about how his season has gone so far then we have to talk about his numbers YTD. If Upton produces the numbers he produced the first half of the year then he would be a great leadoff man. If he duplicates the numbers in the 3 hole then he is just around average. There is no way with certainty to know his future numbers. All I know is his current numbers for this year haven’t been great for a #3 man. Perhaps the numbers will change or the line up will change. If I knew I’d be a rich man predicting the future.

by matthan on Jun 25, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His current statistics make him one of the best hitters in the game right this second.

Fixed that one for you.

Seriously do you know who he ranks ahead of in EqA this season? All but 26 players in the MLB with 200+ PA. Some names: Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, Manny Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Kosuke Fukudome, Alfonso Soriano, Johnny Damon, ect, ect., ect.

He’s been really, really, really good this season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do you realize those players you listed have vastly different roles?

by matthan on Jun 25, 2008 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does the role prohibit them from playing to their abilities?

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 25, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The statistic you gave ignored the role of the player. It doesn’t surprise me that such a statistic says that Upton is having a good year. I’ve said over and over he is having a good year. I’ve also said that his production YTD doesn’t match up to what we would want out of a #3 hitter. His current statistics would make him one of the best, or possibly the best leadoff hitter in the game. That being said I’d expect him to have good numbers such as the one you posted. However, the problem is the statistic you gave has nothing to do with where (based on current statistics) he should have hit in the order, since you included both leadoff hitters and middle of the order bats. You are measuring overall talent, which BJ has bucket loads, whereas I’m talking about a specific skillset to fit a specific role.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isolating Upton

as a problem with the offense is somewhat perverse. He is not hitting home runs as we would like, but he has 18 doubles which puts him near the top of the league. In our division, Roberts has 26 and Pedroia 22; the only other hitters with more doubles are Damon & Huff (20) and Rios & Youkilis (19). On the Rays, only Longoria is about equal with 16 in fewer ABs.

So yes, it is disappointing that Upton has only 5 home runs, but his RBI problem is primarily a problem with the inability of Iwamura and especially Crawford (and of course Bartlett) to get on base in front of him. His enormous talent makes him a candidate to hit anywhere in the lineup, including leadoff, but his best position is at #3 because he is the best hitter on the team, not only potentially but currently.

by bobr on Jun 25, 2008 6:40 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

I have no doubt BJ is one of the best hitters in the league. And I also have no doubt that his lack of RBIs is a direct result of the failure of CC and Aki to get on base consistently. But based on a previous main page fanpost he also walks a lot with RISP. That clearly impacts his RBI totals. Now that isn’t a bad thing by any stretch of the imagination, but it is a factor in his lower RBI totals.

I also have no doubt that BJ will develop into one of the best middle of the order bats in the league. But right now his skillset is better suited for a #1 hitter than a #3 hitter (provided a balanced line up). He is a doubles and SB machine with a great eye, but with very limited power (as of now). That sounds like the IDEAL leadoff hitter.

The problem is we do not have a balanced line up, and frankly we just don’t have a prototypical #3 hitter anywhere. Longoria and Pena strike out too much and hit for too low of an average. CC isn’t fundamentally sound. BJ is hitting 3rd out of neccessity, not because it best suits his current skillset.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Upton is the prototypical #3 hitter.

He hits for average, gets on base and has power. Doubles represent power. He is not part of the problem with the offense.

It is always misleading to evaluate a player based on maximum assumptions rather than simply on what he is doing. Certainly his performance to date does not represent his ceiling, but it is plenty good.

If he hit more home runs he would be better (assuming the rest of his performance stayed the same), but what he is doing is just fine for a #3 hitter.

Almost any good #3 hitter would project as an excellent leadoff hitter. To say that Upton would fit “better” as a leadoff hitter is simply to say that he is doing well where he is, and as you very correctly point out that nobody else could fill the role as well as he there is no point in suggesting he ought to lead off. If he did, the complaint would be that our best hitter was being wasted by leading off the game so that one at bat came with nobody on base and his other ABs came Bartlett.

by bobr on Jun 26, 2008 3:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Well said...

I looked up numbers and everything to support this argument earlier but got bored and quit. Upton’s numbers last year would have made him one of the top-5 number three hitters in baseball this year. As for this years numbers, as a #3 Upton has the best OBP in the AL and is seventh in Slugging. I’d much prefer a batter continue to get on base at a high clip than sacrifice that for improved SLG.

What is impressive is that Upton has been able to maintain his stats from last year while most analysts thought he was in for a big drop.

by tallyray on Jun 26, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs