Longoria, ALL Star?

by Pie-O-My on Jun 26, 2008 2:00 PM EDT

I'm watching the Marlins/Rays game right now and they just did a poll on who should be the Rays representative for the All Star game. The list included Crawford, Kazmir, Upton, Navarro, and Howell. Now I have a question, why is no one mentioning Longoria? Is it because he's a rookie? Because right now I think Longoria is the best hitter the rays have. The kid leads the team in homeruns and RBIs while also playing gold glove caliber defense. He saved the game on friday with an outstanding dive.

Longoria gets my vote even if he's not on the ballot. Which is bullshit, by the way.

This post was written by a member of the DRaysBay community and does not necessarily express the views or opinions of DRaysBay staff.

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He's making a run...

But Lowell, Crede, and Arod are ahead of him numbers wise.

by tallyray on Jun 26, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions

Longoria is getting very close to those guys

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Evan is ahead of Crede and Lowell in runs, and doubles. He is slightly behind Crede in RBIs and HR, and ahead of Lowell in both. He has the most walks, but the most Ks. He has the most SB (only three though). He has the lowest OPS of the three, but it should get even tighter after todays game.

You can easily make a case for him to be the #2 AL 3b right now. By the end of the year I think it will be obvious that he is the one behind arod. Honestly I expect him to get some MVP votes.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

You're insane.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think his statement is a stretch at all

Considering the following players got MVP votes last year (with OPS):

Morneau (.835)
Abreu (.814)
Hunter (.839)
Cabrera (.742)
Gonzalez (.849)
Phillips (.816)
Tulowitzki (.838)
Byrnes (.813)
Beltran (.878)

If he continues at this rate (.855 OPS) I’d be surprised if he didn’t pick up some MVP votes in the process.

And he is definitely a top-5 3b in the AL right now, and a strong case could be made for him at #2.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 26, 2008 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

He said somewhere else he'd finish top 3 in MVP voting

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I understand the process and I do not underestimate a good story. Longoria is our MVP. He is our best hitter that the nation will see. Sure stat geeks may like BJ more. But the writers and the nation as a whole will like Longorias numbers and at this pace it will be near the top in the AL. He won’t have the best by any stretch. But he will have led the Rays to a playoff spot. You CANNOT underestimate that.

Plus take a look at our record pre Longoria and our record post Longoria. Factor all that in and you’d have a pretty damn good story. And the media likes a story.

RJ who would you rank as your top AL MVP candidates? Once you look at it all you’ll see the Longoria can easily sneak his way in there.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

I’m a believer that a MVP should come from a playoff team or a team damn close. That essentially eliminates all the Rangers. No way Arod will win it with the Yankees out of the playoffs. You have the three Chicago guys splitting votes. Do you really think JD Drew will capture imaginations?

A stud rookie 3b comes into the league and takes a team that has never had a winning season to the playoffs is just a great story. Finishing ahead of the Yankees would be epic in the eyes of the nation. Winning games with his bat and his glove. He would have one of the best highlight shows in MLB.

Evan Longoria and the Rays would be one of the best stories that the MLB has had in awhile. The best player doesn’t and shouldn’t win this award.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

^^^And this mindset is typical of MVP voters

It might be unfair that half of MVP voters only consider players on playoff teams, but it is still the reality.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 26, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Alex Rodriguez is an exception to the rule.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Arod on a nonplayoff yankee team will lose votes. If you don’t think that is the case you are dreaming.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

No way Arod will win it with the Yankees out of the playoffs

You really, really need to stop making assumptions like this. They’re less than five games out and A-Rod won and came in second in far worse teams in Texas.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions

RJ, the whole point was IF we made the playoffs THIS would happen. Obviously I know that we may not make the playoffs. I’m not sure what your point is. I thought it was painfully obvious that this scenario only applies if we made the playoffs.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Can't agree more

This guy has the best glove at 3B I’ve seen in years. I hear the announcers liken his skills to Mike Schmidt and Brooks Robinson when they talk about Longo. He has the potential to be great. Only time will tell.

by Rays Rule on Jun 26, 2008 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Where to start...

Sure stat geeks may like BJ more

Stat geeks generally like good players, therefore stat geeks like both players.

But the writers and the nation as a whole will like Longorias numbers and at this pace it will be near the top in the AL.

But you just said stat geeks will like B.J. more, meaning the numbers show B.J. > Evan, they do. B.J.’s EqA is .301, Longoria’s is .291, B.J.’s WARP is 4.3, Evan’s is 3.7. Both are seeing roughly 4.06 P/PA which is just outstanding, and the numbers may change, but for this season B.J. IS the better overall hitter. Evan is hitting for more power and B.J. is walking more.

But he will have led the Rays to a playoff spot. You CANNOT underestimate that.

How is he leading us to anything if he’s not even the best hitter? And how can you guarantee we’re making the playoffs in June?

Plus take a look at our record pre Longoria and our record post Longoria.

Look at our record pre and post Kazmir, or pre and post Gabe Gross. Seriously that’s an awful argument. He’s not lone variable.

RJ who would you rank as your top AL MVP candidates?

It’s too early to really say, but if I were voting tomorrow I’d go:
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. J.D. Drew
3 Roy Halladay

Yes three ALE members, and yes two that aren’t on first place teams. It’s not a team award.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

With All Due Respect

You could count the number of MVP voters that use EQA and WARP on one hand. And MVP voting trends of the past tend to indicate that most of the old-guard baseball writers still consider it a team award.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 26, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

This is fair.

But he asked for my candidates, not the writers candidates.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Well honestly I was talking about how I think the voting will happen

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions

It is partially a team award. I subscribe to the thought that in order to be a valuable player you team needs to have some success. And to be most valuable your team needs to have quite a bit of success.

If the Yankees do not make the playoffs their season is a total failure. Arod will still get votes, but there will be quite a few defections from his corner. They just won’t vote for a player for MVP that is on a team that they consider a failure.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Right

Arod could hit 60 home runs this Year and Woody Paige/ Jay Mariotti types would talk about how they were all hit in blowouts

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 26, 2008 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep

The media loves a great story. Longoria on the freaking Tampa Bay Rays that BEAT the New York Yankees and Arod would be a tremendous story. There is no way on this planet that Longoria wouldn’t steal quite a few of Arods votes.

Just to be let it know i think Upton is a better hitter currently. But Longoria has more “splash” hits and defensive plays to borrow a term from football. Also his mainstream numbers are as good if not better than Uptons.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions

And I’ll repeat just to clarify. This isn’t neccessarily what I think SHOULD happen but rather what I think WILL. I think David (the Rays) staring a rookie 3b conquering Goliath (the Yankees) with arguably the best player ever playing at 3b would be a story they would not pass up.

In no way I am saying Evan is better than Arod. Or even more valuable in the grand scheme of things. I’m talking about the context of how this specific award is typically won.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Also that isn’t a bad “if we are voting tomorrow” type list. Thing is we aren’t voting tomorrow. I was talking about what would happen if we made the playoffs. Frankly if we win the ALE I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he WON the award.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

And Aybar is listed on the ballot as our 3b

Why???????

Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.

by Sandy Kazmir on Jun 26, 2008 3:08 PM EDT reply actions

Opening day starter probably.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

My guess is Kaz will be our only one

by td32 on Jun 26, 2008 3:17 PM EDT reply actions

They'll get at least two...

Kaz seems like a shoe-in. Navy will probably sneak his way on if Mauer wins the voting. I see either Upton or Crawford making it as well.

by tallyray on Jun 26, 2008 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions

B.J. deserves it. If not Howell/Wheeler would probably get an invite.

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 26, 2008 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Manager selections

I bet Franco picks a bunch of our guys just so they don’t get a rest. Remember when Kaz got injured after over warming up before his all-star inning? I hope we don’t see that again…

by rays_world_champs on Jun 26, 2008 5:12 PM EDT reply actions

Kazmir/Navarro

I am leaning more towards Navarro…

Hello Kitty, #1 in your fantasy league. =p

by Boricua on Jun 26, 2008 8:14 PM EDT reply actions

Considering the following players got MVP votes last year

well by that line of thinking almost anybody could win the MVP award

I agree with RJ, that is insane

by blazinrayz on Jun 26, 2008 9:18 PM EDT reply actions

I was responding to the following:

“Honestly I expect him to get some MVP votes.”.

I don’t see how that statement is so bold. Nor was I trying to make a case that Longoria will win the MVP. Nor did it appear that he was trying to make that case. Maybe he tried to make that case in another post, but I really don’t care to research it.

All I was saying is that every year 20 or more players that have no business winning the award get MVP votes, and if Longoria continues on his current pace, I’d be very surprised if he didn’t. If you took that as “anyone can win the MVP award” that was certainly not my intent.

But since you drove me to it, here are after all, several key factors that could lead to him getting a lot of MVP votesr />1. He will likely lead the team in home runs and RBI’s.
2. There are not any other eye-popping offensive candidates on the team.*
3. He has already established himself as a team leader (player rep).
4. He plays good defense.

Unless the Rays make the playoffs, there is no way he finishes Top-10 in MVP. But if they do make the playoffs, you can bet your behind that the BBWAA will be looking for someone Ray to heap praise upon.
- Though I think BJ will end up with better OBP and OPS, most baseball writers could care less.

Oh, and Jimmy Rollins, Justin Morneau, Miguel Tejada, Jeff Kent, Mo Vaughn, Terry Pendelton, and Kirk Gibson said to tell you guys hello.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 26, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

HTML Nightmare

I guess I need to learn a thing or two about asterisk usage

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 26, 2008 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice post. I certainly do not expect him to win it. It would require strong stats (although he won’t need the best) and probably an AL East title.

But if we make the wild card and he continues at this pace he will definitely no doubt about it receive votes and finish in the top 10. And like I said previously he could finish in the top 3. There aren’t exactly a lot of strong favorites, especially when you consider media bias. Do you really think a nonplayoff Arod, JD Drew, or Joe Crede are going to garner excitement from the media? Then factor in Crede, Quinton, and Dye will split some votes. The Rangers are probably going to finish .500 which will surely take people out of Hamiltons camp.

For those people who disagree with that I think you should just take a look at the legitimate candidates and the possible scenarios. If the Rays make the playoffs it will be pretty tough to envision a scenario where he finishes outside the top 10.

by matthan on Jun 26, 2008 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair

2 of the 3 out of Drew, Arod, and Crede appear playoff bound at this point.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 27, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes

But I don’t see the media jumping on the JD Drew bandwagon or the Joe Crede bandwagon. Plus the White Sox have a few guys that could split their vote. And honestly I think Longoria outproduces Crede from here on out. There just aren’t a lot of viable MVP candidates in the AL this year. Longoria can sneak in.

The MVP award in baseball is just a different beast than most awards. There are just so many factors outside of pure statistics.

by matthan on Jun 27, 2008 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions

i couldn't agree more

I see Longo finishing the year with 30 plus homeruns and 100 plus RBI’s if he stays healthy. We’re not even at the half way point and he hasn’t even been here all year. Also, it seems to me that he is just starting to heat up, and for once there isn’t a solid candidate running away with the award. You have every right to assume that he will garner some votes even if the Rays don’t make the playoffs. If they do make the playoffs and are the cinderella team this year, what a story this could be.. the only team to finish the season in last place then make the playoffs the next year (no stats to back that up). He will be our MVP at the end of the year and maybe voters will see that Evan was the MVP to his team and a huge reason why we could possibly make history. The guy is absolutely amazing and the rays did a great thing in signing him long term before he realized his ML potential. One more thing, does anyone know if it is possible to win rookie of the year and mvp in the same season?

by longoria3 on Jun 27, 2008 12:45 AM EDT reply actions