Rays Still Undecided On #1 Pick?

by Kevin Gengler on Jun 4, 2008 12:40 PM EDT Comment 45 comments

According to BaseballAmerica, the Rays are still back and forth on the #1 pick, though it appears to be down to just two:

According to BA’s sources, the Rays’ scouting department prefers Georgia prep shortstop Tim Beckham, the kind of toolsy, middle-of-the-diamond athlete the Rays have drafted repeatedly—the kind of athletes that have put the Rays in first place in the American League East as the draft approaches. Others in the organization, such as de facto GM Andrew Friedman, are said to prefer Florida State catcher Buster Posey as the perfect complement to the organization’s impressive current stockpile of talent.

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We've repeatedly drafted BJ Upton?

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 4, 2008 12:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Draft Becks and be done-

We have a good young catcher, and Jaso- don’t see the need…

by Hazleton Jason on Jun 4, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jaso

I would call Jaso a good young hitter than happens to catch, not a good young catcher.

www.citadel-insurance.com

by SeanDubbs on Jun 4, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agree with that assessment-but

Navarro is only 24, and Riggans seems passable as his backup… like I stated last night, if Posey isn’t the next Joe Mauer (and from accounts he isn’t) then he isn’t the #1 pick… Mauer only went #2 and he is as good as you can find…

Becks could be another similar to Upton, maybe not as good, but better tools than Briggy and Bartletts .240 BA isn’t going to cut it forever…

by Hazleton Jason on Jun 4, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So Russell Martin isn't worthy of the number one pick?

By your logic, unless Beckham is the next Hanley Ramirez he shouldn’t be considered. You cannot say “If this guy isn’t the best at his position in five years, he’s not worth it,” especially not in this draft because there is nobody like that. Posey isn’t a better prospect than Wieters, but he’s likely going to have an OPS amongst the upper tier catchers and he’s safer than Beckham.

Shortstop and catcher offensive production are strikingly similar, if it comes down to defense Posey is apparently able to stick at catcher and potentially could grow into a very good defender. Beckham still evidently has some concerns about his longevity in the infield.

I’ll defer to the front office, but since I’m more conservative I’d go with Posey, he’s safe and good, even if he doesn’t turn out to be the absolute best player in this draft.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 4, 2008 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Idk R.J.

If you have the #1 overall pick and a farm system like the Rays have, I’d me more incline to gamble on the kid with the higher celing. I won’t be too angry if the Rays take Posey, who seems to have very little wrong with his game- I just feel you are trying to get the best talent you can with #1 overall… Just my opinion.

by Hazleton Jason on Jun 4, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I misunderstood you then.

The way you initially addressed it made it sound like you expected the pick to become the best at his position.

There’s obviously nothing wrong with wanting the higher ceiling though, even if it’s only an elite, and not the elite, player.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 4, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BARRY LAMAR BONDS

I like how he seems to get dropped in to the most inappropriate conversations.

Seriously tho, Posey scares me. He seems to ooze of hype and gimmick. “Let’s play him at all 9 positions! Look at how he crushes pitches with an aluminum bat!” I look at him and I see JD Drew and Travis Lee. I think I’d rather go with Beckham.

by kericr on Jun 4, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

J.D. Drew...

You wouldn’t want J.D. Drew? When healthy all he has done is produce. You can’t forecast health.

by WillisDaddy on Jun 4, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He hasn’t produced to the levels that were expected of him when he was drafted. Honestly, I don’t want to get into a conversation about it, not because I feel that you don’t have valid points, but moreso because I’m just lazy. Feel free to belive that I don’t know what I’m talking about. :)

by kericr on Jun 4, 2008 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

correction

“not because I feel that you don’t have valid points” should be “not because I don’t feel that you wouldn’t have valid points”.

by kericr on Jun 4, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We don't have a strong need at ANY position

A luxury which enables us to draft the best available talent. Who that is is anybody’s guess

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 4, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactamundo

by rglass44 on Jun 4, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We really do need an everyday right fielder. This platoon stuff hasn’t worked at all this year.

by kericr on Jun 4, 2008 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how has it not worked?

"I'd hate to leave right when the getting is good." -CC

by Matt Bishoff on Jun 4, 2008 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t like the way BA has framed this decision.

First, toolsy, middle-of-the-diamond athletes the Rays have drafted repeatedly and have put us in first? BJ Upton and who? Josh Hamilton is middle-of-the-diamond.. and helped us absolutely zero to get the Rays in contention. BJ Upton is a very important piece of the team, but he’s not the primary reason the Rays are contending.

Carl Crawford is an athlete, definitely not middle-of-the-diamond and wasn’t picked in the first round anyways.

Delmon Young.. again, not middle-of-the-diamond, isn’t on the current squad, but he is an indirect help thanks to the trade.

Their comment also downplays or pretty much ignores the very important role the pitching, upgraded defense and numerous recent signings/trades (Pena, Navarro, Jackson, Bartlett, Iwamura, Hinske/Gross, entire bullpen) have played in the Rays turnaround.

It sounds like they are trying to play up a potential conflict between the scouting department and Andrew Friedman or maybe they are once again insinuating a scout-vs-stat type debate.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 4, 2008 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very good point regarding BA’s view on how we got where we are. We traded for our starting C and SS. Signed our 2B as a FA. Only Upton was drafted, and not as a CF.

by DAM on Jun 4, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Perhaps he was referencing Josh Hamilton, Rocco Baldelli and Elijah Dukes and their collective zero contribution to the current team.

Longlorious.

by RATW on Jun 4, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree they were all toolsy up the middle guys that we drafted, but they haven’t contributed one plate appearance to our current success. Briggy and Jennings at least are still in the org and hopefully will contribute in the future.

by DAM on Jun 4, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Can you post a poll on who we think the rays should draft, not who we think the rays will draft? i’m curious…

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jun 4, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

seems overwhelmingly pro beckham though

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jun 4, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Players taken in the June draft coming out of college (or with at least two years of college) perform dramatically better than players drafted out of high school.

by LeftRight on Jun 4, 2008 3:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

First Round HS SS from 1990-2003 (pick)

1990: Chipper Jones (1), Aaron Holbert (18), and Tom Nevers (21)
1991: Benji Gil (19), Pokey Reese (20)
1992: Derek Jeter (6), Preston Wilson (9)
1993: Alex Rodriguez (1), Matt Brunson (9)
1994: Josh Booty (5), Mark Farris (11), Hiram Bocachica (21), Kevin Witt (28)
1995: Chad Hermansen (10), Ryan Jaroncyk (18), Michael Barrett (28)
1996: Matt Halloran (15), Joe Lawrence (16)
1997: Michael Cuddyer (9), Troy Cameron (29)
1998: Felipe Lopez (8), Josh McKinley (11)
1999: Corey Myers (4)
2000: Luis Montanez (3), David Espinosa (23), Corey Smith (26)
2001: Josh Burrus (29)
2002: BJ Upton (2), Scott Moore (8), Sergio Santos (27)
2003: Brandon Wood (23)

Looking at the list, a few things stand out to me. First, it isn’t all that surprising that HS SS are the most volatile pick that a team can make. Second, a fair amount of the the SS picked near the top have turned out to be quite good: Chipper, A-Rod, Jeter, and Upton. So the question is whether or not Beckham is a Jeter or a Corey Myers?

by rglass44 on Jun 4, 2008 3:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Also, for those w/ ESPN insider

Gammons listed the top 5 picks from 95-04 in his latest blog. Not anymore impressive I’d say.

by rglass44 on Jun 4, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

One thing in common with the four "quite good" shortstops you mentioned

All of them are awful shortstops defensively.

by kericr on Jun 4, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rod was a great defensive SS before he moved

and Jeter didn’t used to be awful, that is a more recent development. If you’d rather have Russ Martin than 3 sure-fire HOF than by all means go for it.

by rglass44 on Jun 4, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he'd rather have Martin

Than Benji Gil

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 4, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just playing Devils advocate btw

I don’t pretend to know how Beckham will project.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jun 4, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rod was a great defensive SS before he got friggin huge

Which coinsided with his move to 3rd base. If he played SS now he’d be terrible. I’ve never been terribly impressed with his 3rd base prowess.

Jeter has always been overrated as a shortstop. He started off awful, improved to average, then peaked at a little better than average, but because he plays for New York, he is percieved as starting below-average, then improving to great, and finally invincible, before regressing to average. I personally think he won his gold gloves at SS because he can hit .320.

by kericr on Jun 4, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A-Rod moved to third base

the year after he won a gold glove and only committed 8 errors. He moved to third base because of gods gift to baseball. (Jeter)

by SuperB on Jun 4, 2008 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

baseball is weird…they have their draft in the middle of the season

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jun 4, 2008 3:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That most likely because that is around the time the amateur season comes to a conclusion.

Protect the Trop: Keep northerners out.

by St Pete Native on Jun 4, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

then why don’t they wait until it does come to a conclusion?

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jun 4, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are willing to go on record and declare a player in this years draft a sure fire MLB All-Star?
Keith Law: Posey’s the obvious one – great defense, can hit, and plays a position where All-Stars are hard to find.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 4, 2008 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yea, i’m hoping for posey…i’d rather have a russell martin than a renteria anyday

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jun 4, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

but i hope me being a nole isn’t getting in the way

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jun 4, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am starting

to want Posey

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Jun 4, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

agreed

I guess it seems like it’s hard to go wrong w/ any of these three

by rglass44 on Jun 4, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Posey versus Beckham

We should take Posey just because he has a better track record with his college experience, plus I don’t like T. Beckham’s swing that much which could be a big problem as he would move up and face advanced pitching. Buster just looks to be the real deal and I think he compares to R. Martin or Varitek at the least.

SC raysfan

by SC raysfan on Jun 4, 2008 4:19 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs