J.P. Howell workload

by RATW on Jun 8, 2008 4:45 PM EDT Comment 10 comments

Since the start of the season, JP Howell has gone from garbage man/inning eater to the high-leverage bridge between the starter and the stopper/closer. Some (not only here, but the Rays radio guys and probably others I am unaware of) have gone so far as to call him our MVP to this point in the season, which some may see as a reach but not without merit and indicative of his importance. With this success in this new role has come not only increased use, but use in key high-leverage situations.

Just how much has he been used? By my quick and dirty (translation: lazy and possibly wrong) math, even after a slow start to the season Howell is currently on pace for almost 60 appearances and 115 IP this year out of the bullpen.

If memory serves, most high-use relievers usually top out around 80-85 IP, while lefty specialists such as Scott Downs, Jamie Walker and our own ex-Ray Joe Beimel piled up upwards of 80-85 appearances last season.

So my question is..

a) is this kind of consistently high-leverage, heavy workload (by bullpen standards) sustainable or is there an increased risk he is going to either burn out or come down with an injury?

b) are there examples of similar bullpen workload profiles to compare? my memory is falling short here.

c) disregarding the workload, how likely is it that Howell will continue to perform at this level?

Considering Howell has been almost exclusively a starter since at least his college days, I'm probably more concerned about the 60 appearances which would double his career norm (college/minors or minors/majors). Also keep in mind, Howell is only 25 and not a grizzled workhorse.

Some extreme examples of high-leverage, high IP guys from last year: Heath Bell led the majors last year with 93.2 relief innings and seems to be just fine. Aussie Peter Moylan did 90 IP for the Braves last year and he's out for the 2008 season.

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Somewhat of a concern

The appearances aren’t heavy but the innings would be for most. However, Howell threw 179 innings last year between AAA and the bigs, so a drop in workload is a good thing. Most of the guys that put on big workloads in relievers spike from the season before.

BaseballHQ cites reliever overuse as

Warning flags should be up for relievers who post in excess of 100 IP in a season, while averaging fewer than 2 IP per outing.

Howell is right on the cusp on that figure, but I don’t know if that puts into play pitchers that were starters the season before.

by Jason Collette on Jun 8, 2008 4:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Interesting question

Honestly, I don’t know. But this organization has been very deliberate with how they handle pitchers in the past, so I’m sure that they don’t take the matter lightly. They’ve probably considered the ramifications of his usage rate and are either okay with it, or curtail it in the future. I agree with Jason, it’s somewhat of a concern from my stance, but given that he proved his endurance as a starter there really is no precedent to quickly call upon, and the most similar prior instances provide a mixed track record.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 8, 2008 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I was trying to figure out Howell's pitch count for the season

but I knew I wouldnt be able to find it unless I went through the boxscore of every game he pitched in (not going to do it). I found something that might be useful still…

it seemed to me that Howell has consistently made quick work of his innings. He walks a few too many guys, but he has been nearly unhittable. His BAA is .197

Howell has only thrown over 45 pitches in 3 games this year, and in each of those 3 games he only pitched to one batter after the 44 pitch mark.

Howell has only pitched 8 innings above 30 pitches, and 32 of his innings have been 30 pitches or less

So I think what Im trying to get to, is that Howell has not worked many high pitch counts. Im not sure how many games he’s pitched above 2 innings in, but his low pitch counts should say something

by blazinrayz on Jun 8, 2008 7:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=howeljp01&t=p&year=2008

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 8, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

658 pitches...

Just multiplied P/PA by batters faced. He’s probably top-five in pitches by a relief pitcher.

by tallyray on Jun 9, 2008 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe I am wrong

I don’t think any of that shows low pitch counbts necessarily, I think it just shows he hasn’t pitched many long innings

by blazinrayz on Jun 8, 2008 7:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

and thats bad news

by blazinrayz on Jun 9, 2008 9:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

then again

if hes thrown 40 innings, and most of those innings he faces near the least amount of batters (3-4), than maybe that number isnt that bad. Id have to see what some other relief pitchers pitch counts are to get a good gauge of how much he has been worked

by blazinrayz on Jun 9, 2008 9:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The seemingly magical number for regression in performance for starters is 3,800 pitches.

Howell’s not throwing 70 pitches back to back days, and he’s used to being a starter. I really don’t see a problem here, he warms up quickly and he doesn’t feel any strain in his arm the day after throwing.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 9, 2008 9:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

all good points

and when Ive thought about this very subject to myself, I have thought along those lines.

I think he’ll be alright

The only thing that worries me is the transition, that he has never gone through, from throwing every 5th day to throwing back to back days or every other day for 6 straight months. I’m not sure what makes arms fall off, and I dont know that anyone is, but it seems that very issue could be as likely a cause as any.

But for all the reaosns thaty have been listed, I think I agree with you

by blazinrayz on Jun 10, 2008 4:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs