The Boss

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 9, 2008 1:14 AM EDT

I know it seems like I've became a bit too infatuated with B.J. Upton as of late, but his season is really flying under the radar, and for whatever reasons I'm unsure of. Note that last season Upton's line was .300/.386/.508, very good for the 22 year old, and entering Sunday Upton sat at .300/.407/.442. Granted his power numbers are slightly off - although last season he had 50 total extra base hits with half being doubles and 24 others being homers, through Saturday he had 22 extra base hits with 17 being doubles and four being homers. Amazingly Upton has stolen 20 bases all ready this season, he stole 22 in more than double the games last season, and as for those issues with striking out (154 last season) his current ratio extrapolated to 162 games has him striking out 14 less times while he's on pace for 113 walks.

B.J. Upton is very good and getting better. If possible the Rays need to lock him down for the next decade, he's going to be very special of a very long time.

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You think he wants to stay long term?

by Rays4ever on Jun 9, 2008 1:38 AM EDT reply actions

Who knows?

It’s exceedingly hard to get a read on where he wants to go long-term. I imagine that the performance of the team this year, and in the several succeeding it, will be the paramount factor in determining whether he was to stay.

by Patrick L. Kennedy on Jun 9, 2008 3:54 AM EDT up reply actions

He's the top hitter on the Rays by VORP

Actually, his VORP exceeds the next two highest, and is greater than that of Pena, Crawford, Iwamura, Floyd, Gomes, and Aybar combined.
He’s basically most of 1/3 of the offense.

by lailaihei on Jun 9, 2008 4:43 AM EDT reply actions

Still has a ways to go

The physical tools are there but he has some things to hammer out. He isn’t the best centerfielder in the world. Sometimes he doesn’t run after balls and that has allowed a handful of hits that shouldn’t have been. He doesn’t hit the cut off man as much as he should. And he is not a good base runner. He is running more, but he has been caught quite a bit. So his game isn’t where it should be. Thankfully those issues are easily corrected.

by matthan on Jun 9, 2008 8:27 AM EDT reply actions

Defensively

According to the Hardball Times, BJ leads all qualified ML centerfielders with the most Out of Zone plays. Meaning, he gets to balls that normally would likely fall for hits.

His 7 outfield assists also leads ML CF’s.

He’s good and will only get better.

by Ben Tumbling on Jun 9, 2008 10:04 AM EDT reply actions

Long-term deal

I don’t think you’ll see one. His agent has said that BJ and Justin both will go year-to-year arbitration-wise and then test the free agent waters. I’d be very surprised if either ends up signing a long-term deal. BJ’s game is my favorite on the team, but I don’t see him here long-term. Granted I thought the same thing about Kaz, so we’ll see. Fortunately, there’s this guy Desmond something or other that is a decent ballplayer down in Vero right now.

by rglass44 on Jun 9, 2008 10:17 AM EDT reply actions

K Rate

In your post you extrapolated his Ks out to 162 games, but he only played in 129 last year. Thus, the comparison doesn’t fully capture how much he has decreased his Ks. In 2997 he struck out in 28% of his plate appearances, so far this year he has cut that ratio down drastically to 19%. He’s also increased his walk rate (which was already good) from 12% to 16%. I had noticed that he seems to be having great ABs this year, for good reason. His approach is the best on the team, and he is clearly our best hitter. Longoria has a similar approach, and I believe as he gets acclimated to the bigs we’ll see his strikezone judgment and Ks drop as well.

by rglass44 on Jun 9, 2008 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

BTW that was 2007

by rglass44 on Jun 9, 2008 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Very good point.

Also I think we all knew you meant 2007, B.J. will only play until 2550.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 9, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Just imagine..

How good of an OFer he would be if he didn’t take the occassional play off? He does get to a lot of balls, but there are times where BJ Upton (maybe not other players) should get to the ball, but he is just jogging half speed.

by matthan on Jun 9, 2008 12:22 PM EDT reply actions

Why the negativity?

You made a comment earlier that he isn’t where he should be?

Where should BJ be? He’s a 23 year old playing his second full season. His OBP is among the top five and he is arguably the best offensive player on a wild card leading team. His OF skills aren’t where they should be but he is in his second year of playing the position. It’s pretty impressive how well he is doing, much better than a 23-year old should be doing.

by tallyray on Jun 9, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

He ranks higher than Crawford in nearly every defensive metric.

"I've seen many, many blue skies turn gray, but the sun will eventually return, and so will I. So will I." - Carlos Pena

by R.J. Anderson on Jun 9, 2008 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Poor wording on my part.

I open a paragraph asking where BJ should be and then go on to say he isn’t where he should be defensively.

I meant Upton doesn’t appear to be as developed defensively as he is offensively. I don’t doubt he ranks higher than Crawford (I can’t imagine the gap if you consider arm strength) but comparing him to Crawford doesn’t mean that he’s a developed centerfielder. He has some work to do with route running but that comes with time.

by tallyray on Jun 9, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Mental Mistakes

I’m not negative, but I am pointing out he does have flaws. Most of those flaws are due to mental mistakes. Someone not running after a ball really pisses me off. One day BJ may mature enough to not take plays off. Physically he is playing centerfield fine, it is just the mental mistakes that bug me.

by matthan on Jun 9, 2008 6:24 PM EDT reply actions

Is it mental mistakes or lack of reps?

How do we know BJ isn’t just misreading those balls? BJ badly misplayed two balls in one of the first games I went to this year. He made mistakes. It wasn’t intentional but you could tell he needed more reps.

I just don’t like the perception where every mistake he makes is some premeditated event instead of just an error. Why does Jason Bartlett get to make errors where BJ Upton makes mental mistakes?

by tallyray on Jun 9, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions