Hit B.J. leadoff
by Jason Collette on Jul 10, 2008 2:44 PM EDT
29 comments
Yes, I know baseball is not managed by numbers, but I'm a numbers guy so hear me out.
I used the Lineup Analyzer tool from Baseball Musings and inputted our typical 9 players that make up the lineup card against RHP.
The results were quite interesting. According to the system as it crunches numbers, our 20 best lineups all start with Upton being our leadoff hitter. The full results of that analysis can be found here.
The most optimal lineup we can put out there against RHP is:
1 - Upton
2 - Hinske
3 - Navarro
4 - Longoria
5 - Floyd
6 - Pena
7 - Crawford
8 - Bartlett
9 - Iwamura
That lineup could score us 5.427 runs per contest. If you follow the full results link above, you'll see that most of the worst case scenario lineups involve Crawford hitting leadoff or Iwamura hitting in the 2 hole.
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It won't happen, but
it would be interesting to see if it works. Didn’t RJ or one of the other guys post something about how if the lineup would score a lot more runs if we simply batted everyone in reverse order of OBP??
Blake
USF--Class of '09
by usfraysfan on Jul 10, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think he said the opposite
That batting lineup composition didnt have a major effect on runs scored.
by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 10, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
They don't, really.
But James Click in Between the Numbers wrote a team could score an additional 10 runs simply by batting the team in descending order of OBP. 10 runs is about a win, and that’s pretty much the max a lineup can additionally give you.
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 10, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks
i couldn’t quite remember what it was.
Blake
USF--Class of '09
by usfraysfan on Jul 10, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It depends on what you consider major...
It’s always said that lineup isn’t a huge deal, but could swing by couple tenths of a run a game.
After seeing Jason post this I have come around on BJ batting #1. I just don’t know how much of an improvement it will be if Crawford continues to bat 1 or 2. I just can’t see him being pushed out of the top 5.
One of the problems of the model is it assumes that future play will continue like the past half year. Even after giving BJ a slugging around .500 he still comes out the best option at #1.
I’m convinced.
by tallyray on Jul 10, 2008 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BJ hitting leadoff makes way too much sense...
His OBP is great and his power number are down. If he regains his 2007 form, I would prefer him in the 3 spot so he can drive in runs. Or so he can get on base and have Bonds drive him in.
by td32 on Jul 10, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
slight error
The runs per game above should show 5.247 – I was a bit dyslexic.
Inserting Xavier Nady for Cliff Floyd in the lineup, and runs per game jumps up to 5.43 if Nady hits 2, Hinske hits 5.
by Jason Collette on Jul 10, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Would Upton be better suited for the 2-hole then?
My main contention here is him being a righty bat to break up the other lefties. I would also move Longo to 4. One of the first 2 get on. 2-4 pretty much deny a DP. L,R,L,R
So:
Aki
Upton
Craw
Longo
Pena
et al.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 10, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What's wrong with the guy that leads our team in P/PA and Hits batting leadoff?
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 10, 2008 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Because he gets on base 0.44 less than Upton?
by Jason Collette on Jul 10, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has been excellent the last couple of months...
...and if the model was adjusted to show this than there could be slight changes. Still, Upton gets on base at a significantly better clip. If Upton leads off than Aki should be #9. If Aki stays at leadoff then Upton should be #2.
by tallyray on Jul 10, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed w/ tally and kaz
Nothing makes me happier than watching Aki single after a 3-2 count.
by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 10, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aki doubling after a 3-2 count?
by R.J. Anderson on Jul 10, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yet, Aki's most productive splits are in situations where he has runners on base
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=28632
Seems to me that it would be more productive to put him in a spot in the lineup where that would happen. Since Bartlett never gets on base, Aki is not afforded that opportunity as often.
by Jason Collette on Jul 10, 2008 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Platoon changes...
Other than Upton and Longo, this team is a wreck without platoon advantage. There should be dramatic changes against lefty starters.
by tallyray on Jul 10, 2008 3:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
One problem with this analysis
If you add Bonds to our lineup, he would bat 1st in all of the best ones too.
by rglass44 on Jul 10, 2008 3:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What about right-handed Bonds?
I heard he is willing to switch-hit if someone will sign him. Anyone. Please god let it be us.
Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter, and those who matter don't mind.
by Sandy Kazmir on Jul 10, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He'd probably be second and that's the smart move
Also, it’s pretty important to break up any lefties in the lineup and to a lesser extent, the righties.
by Sky Kalkman on Jul 10, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've thought for awhile that Upton should hit leadoff
Upton
Crawford
Longoria
Pena
RF/DH
DH/RF
Navi
Aki
Bartlett
by Dbullsfan on Jul 10, 2008 5:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you were to do that
I would swap aki and barty. I think aki is a better hitter and would be better for the second leadoff guy.
Blake
USF--Class of '09
by usfraysfan on Jul 10, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm...
So Upton should lead off because of his high OBP, but Crawford should still hit second?
If you’re serious about “improving” the lineup, Crawford needs to hit eighth or ninth.
Still, any “improvement” is going to be very nominal, and lineup construction doesn’t really matter.
by Peter Bendix on Jul 11, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Upton is getting on base but slugging .291 in the last 30 days
Having him hit in the 3 spot is insanity, especially behind a leadoff hitter that can only get to 1st and a 2nd hitter who the least productive player in the top 6 spots of the lineup.
by Jason Collette on Jul 11, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Do you think that is going to continue?
Is there a reason to believe he will continue to slug under .400? I know he has slumped, but is there some mechanical reason why he should continue to slump?
by tallyray on Jul 11, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can only speculate
He really has not been the same hitter since the shoulder issue cropped up earlier this year.
by Jason Collette on Jul 11, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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