First Half of the Schedule Ends
55-39 depending on what Boston does either a half of a game ahead or behind with 68 games remaining. The Rays don't have a game until Friday night with Toronto heading into town, but frankly it's hard to be disappointed with the overall picture. For an idea of just how far this team has come the team didn't have its 55th win last season until August 31st. The Rays would have to lose their next 41 games to match the 55-80 record, which is so obviously going to happen.
Actually, let's stay realistic, which in this case means the team is still in the playoff picture and still mathematically on pace for over 90 wins. Happy, realistic thoughts produce images of chinchillas, like this one:
Aww...he so cute!
The absence of games for a few days also gives general managers across the league a chance to spend even more time discussing and negotiating transactions. While that guarantees nothing, the Rays could very well add a player(s) before they play their next game.
Despite the half-week off I won't be holding back on content, namely because I love this team too much to spend more than a day or two away from writing about them. So tomorrow and Wednesday we will have content as well as open threads for the Home Run Derby and All-Star Game.
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ok. I'm sold on Street.
.... not sure yet on Murton… I mean I like him, but if we are losing any of Briggy/Helly/Jennings, then i damn sure better like the return….
by daveh33 on
Jul 13, 2008 4:39 PM EDT
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Chilla the Chinchilla

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
BELIEVE in 08!
by SRQman on
Jul 13, 2008 4:39 PM EDT
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Morlan pics....

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
BELIEVE in 08!
by SRQman on
Jul 13, 2008 4:51 PM EDT
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Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans
BELIEVE in 08!
by SRQman on
Jul 13, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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My 2nd Half Plan, Subject To Change
Non-Price prospect package for Jason Bay and Damaso Marte (Bay would be around for next year’s World Series championship, too.)
David Price to the bullpen or rotation, with EJax going to bullpen.
Sign Barry Bonds.
Benefits Over Half a Season:
Bay - 1.5 wins
Marte - .5 wins
Price - .5 wins
Bonds - 1.5 wins
That’s a four-win bump and an AL-East-winning team.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 13, 2008 5:17 PM EDT
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So
Rotation: Shields/Kaz/Garza/Price/Sonny
Pen: Edwin/Marte/Balfour/Wheeler/Miller/Howell/Reyes/Percival one too many
Lineup: Navarro, Pena, Iwamura, Bartlett, Longoria, Crawford, Upton, Bay, Bonds
by R.J. Anderson on
Jul 13, 2008 5:21 PM EDT
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lineup
BOSSMAN
Bay
Bonds
Longo
CC
Pena
Navi
Barty
Aki
??
by daveh33 on
Jul 13, 2008 5:25 PM EDT
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Moving CC out of the 2 hole makes CC Jesus cry.
by kericr on
Jul 13, 2008 5:26 PM EDT
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I would move CC further down than that.
by R.J. Anderson on
Jul 13, 2008 5:27 PM EDT
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If I'm fantasy manager
BJ
CC (assuming he’d still whine about batting anywhere but 2nd in the order)
Pena
Bonds
Bay
Longo
Navi
Barty
Aki
by kericr on
Jul 13, 2008 5:29 PM EDT
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top five should be...
Upton
Bonds
Bay
Pena
Longoria
R/L/R/L/R, maximizes OBP at top of lineup and gives more PAs to Bonds (the best hitter)
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 13, 2008 5:55 PM EDT
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I think Bonds is still good, but I'm not sure he'd be the best hitter on this team.
by acblue on
Jul 13, 2008 5:58 PM EDT
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who's better?
Bonds’ OPS+ the past two years were 156 and 170. Longoria’s at 134 this year. Pena was at 172 last year, but isn’t that good.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 13, 2008 6:19 PM EDT
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A lot of that depends on how good he is now.
I think Upton’s true talent level might be higher at this point, and possibly Longoria. I think Bonds is still a great hitter, but I think it’s reasonable to expect a significant drop-off from last year at this point in time.
by acblue on
Jul 13, 2008 7:50 PM EDT
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I say this
BJ CF
CC LF
Longoria 3B
Pena 1B
Bonds DH
Nady RF
Navy C
Bartlett SS
Aki 2B
Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
by Orlando Rays on
Jul 14, 2008 7:45 AM EDT
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how do you figure?
Here’s my math:
Bonds was four wins better than average each of the past two seasons, in about 3/4 playing time. I get this number from B-Ref, on the far right of the special batting section (it’s just linear weights). Therefore, he’s been about 2.5 wins above average over 40% of a season (what’s left in 2008). Players tend to hit worse when they DH than when they play the field and Bonds would be moving from the NL to the AL, so that puts him about 1.5 wins better than average (you could argue for 2.0, though). The current Rays’ DHs are hitting about league-average, so Bonds would be 1.5 to 2.0 wins better than average the rest of the way, if he’s still the hitter he was the past two seasons.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 14, 2008 12:01 PM EDT
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Going into the break on a long losing skid is hard
But at least this team is still in contention. At best, the Rays are still the division leaders, and at worst they hold the wild card spot at this point. Hopefully this team can sort out the bats during the all-star break and, along with some home cookin’ break this skid first game out and take the Jays to the woodshed.
Obviously this team has vastly exceeded all of our expectations at this point of the season which is why watching them lose like they have is so hard. This team is losing right now because of a single glaring deficiency that really has existed all year but is now manifesting itself to it’s highest level at the worst possible time.
When the Rays were winning games but not scoring a lot, it was that they were scoring “just enough” and that was because we had amazing pitching. The pitching is still good, but it’s not good enough right now to win games 2-1 or 3-2, and let’s be honest, if this team is going to actually be able to compete on the road in the long run, they shouldn’t even try to win games by these kinds of scores.
I hate to say this, but I don’t think we can wait on Crawford much longer to break his slump if this team is going to try to win this year, and we can’t keep waiting on Upton to start producing power numbers either (I know that CF isn’t supposed to be a power position, but it was supposed to be for this team with Upton there, and I personally feel he’s hurt and those home runs just aren’t going to be there this year). The offense we lost by switching Brendan Harris for Bartlett looks quite glaring now in retrospect.
I’m going to the game on Friday. I fully expect to see a clearance sale at the fan shop on Jonny Gomes unis. I’ve started to think more about this and I think the Rays need to really consider getting rid of 2 out of 3 between Floyd, Hinske, and Gross. None of the three can hit lefties, Floyd can’t field at all, Hinske’s pretty bad at fielding, and Gross is the worst at the plate but best in the field by a vast margin. The problem is, none of the three make a good everyday starter (since a DH needs be able to handle both lefties and righties), and the only one who seems suitable for a platoon (Gross) is the worst of the group at the plate at this point.
I’m beginning to think that maybe the Rays really should sign Bonds if we’re hoping to win this year. I don’t like his clubhouse presence but the Rays can’t hope to improve the offense with four guys trying to do two things that none of them are really good at.
by kericr on
Jul 13, 2008 5:26 PM EDT
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Hello Dray Bay.
I’m a Pirates fan and have been reading this blog fairly regularly. The Rays success this season gives me hope that if run correctly small market teams can compete against the upper echelon. With the trade deadline nearing I’m curious to hear what you all think would be a fair return for a Nady/Marte package and on a bigger scale a Bay/Marte package. Keeping in mind the Pirates need for pitching and SS (assuming Wilson gets dealt).
by Slick1 on
Jul 13, 2008 6:05 PM EDT
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i would probably give up more than most here
I’d give up a non-Price pitching prospect and something a step down, or maybe even two non-Price pitching prospects. The Rays’ strength is currently their pitching—they have aces and future aces in the farm system. They do not have a strong offense nor strong offensive prospects. Trading pitching for hitting is a smart move. Bay’s is an excellent bat, a step above Nady, and a top-ten corner outfielder.
I could understand not paying this price for half a season of Jason Bay, but he’s signed for a second year at only $8MM. Kaz/Shields/Garza/Sonny/Price/EJax will all be around for years to come—there are no expected holes in the rotation and plenty of extras fighting for a spot. With Bay, the offense and defense improves tremendously, on the order of three wins over a full season. That’s both this season AND next.
Marte’s nice, but not that necessary—no need to overpay.
I’ll ask you this—would the Pirates be interested in Brignac or Ruggiano? How about Niemann and those two for Bay/Marte?
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 13, 2008 6:16 PM EDT
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I don't think...
Ruggiano would interest us too much but I do think a package centered around Brignac and Davis or Hellickson would be a great starting point (plus one or two lower level/tier prospects). In all actuality Niemann would be a welcomed addition if the other two couldn’t be had. My thinking is that we are a few years from contending so the younger pitchers would be of more value. Unforutnately, the player the team really wants to move is Nady and I’m skeptical that they will do the right thing and move Bay too. Bay is in his prime right now and is still affordable. Every year we wait to deal him dimishes his value. Bay has been a bit unlucky against lefties but is still about a solid an OF as you’ll find. I personally would rather have him than Holliday. PNC isn’t exactly built for right handed power hitters and Hollidays home/road splits speak for themselves. While a step down from Bay and Holliday, Nady does tear up lefties. What would you be willing to offer up for a Nady/marte package?
by Slick1 on
Jul 13, 2008 7:18 PM EDT
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Cash in Bay and Nady for some young arms to go along with McCutchen/Pearce/Alvarez and you have a nice cheap, young nucleus to build towards a window of contention.
Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!
by RATW on
Jul 14, 2008 12:20 PM EDT
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and yes, the Pirates will be a top team in a few years. enjoy the ride
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 13, 2008 6:31 PM EDT
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One thing that I just noticed
Which pretty inconsequential since his career speaks against it, is that Bay’s OPS v. LHP is actually more than .2 points lower. Looks like he’s been unlucky though with a .255 BABIP.
by R.J. Anderson on
Jul 13, 2008 6:38 PM EDT
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if i remember correctly, you need something like 3000 career PAs to regress a right-hander's L/R split 50% towards the mean L/R split
Which means you should never pay attention to half a year’s PAs against lefties, let alone three years against lefties. Bay will bash lefties. Longoria will bash lefties.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 13, 2008 7:31 PM EDT
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You seem to do well with pitchers
How about Edwin Jackson, Jeff Niemann, Eric Hinske and Jonny Gomes?
Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
by Orlando Rays on
Jul 14, 2008 7:48 AM EDT
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That’s for Nady/Marte
Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
by Orlando Rays on
Jul 14, 2008 7:48 AM EDT
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a voice of reason on BJ Upton
No, he has no shown much power. Yes, he’s currently in a slump. But if he repeats his first half in the second half, he’s extremely valuable and there’s no reason anyone should even be thinking about a replacement. Why?
His OBP makes him extremely valuable. By linear weights, he’s one win better than the average hitter right now. By comparison Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye are both 1.5 wins above average. Then consider position. Find a decent center fielder is a lot harder than finding a decent corner outfielder. Over a half season, center field gets a half-game advantage over either corner spot. The brings Upton up to the Dye/Quentin level. Then consider fielding. Dye’s a half-win worse than average, Quentin’s a full win worse than average, and Upton’s a half-win better than average in center field. That puts Upton a full win more valuable than Dye and 1.5 wins more valuable than Quentin.
How’s that for perspective. If you think you can find anyone to play center field who’s more productive, I beg to differ. I count XX center fielders who could be considered better players, none of which are available: Grady Sizemore, Carlos Beltran, Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, maybe Torii Hunter, Aaron Rowand and Rick Ankiel (depending how you trust his 2007 numbers so far). (Dejesus is close, Damon would be close. McLouth can’t play defense and should move back to a corner spot.)
Please stop complaining about a sure-thing top-ten center fielder, even if he does still have room to improve.
by Sky Kalkman on
Jul 13, 2008 6:08 PM EDT
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Reason for the slump
The beards. Maybe we collectively shave before Friday.
by rays_world_champs on
Jul 13, 2008 6:20 PM EDT
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damn beards! never a winner with them, thats the lesson i have learned through them
LOL the stupid ass yankees think that they can turn around strikeout machine reggie sexson, they are thinking about signing him!
by RaysOfHope on
Jul 13, 2008 8:01 PM EDT
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I've always tried to figure out
how far we’d make it without adequate production from CC, Beej, and Pena. We’ll, that got us to about the July 4th weekend.
A trade and/or FA signing would help, but CC, BJ, and C-Pain have got to improve or we are going to fade in the second half.
Just some thoughts
TAMPA BAY RAYS: 2008 CITRUS SERIES CHAMPIONS
by JMB on
Jul 13, 2008 6:49 PM EDT
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I think it's reasonable to expect Upton's numbers to improve in the second half.
I was looking at his stats on Fangraphs and wow is his HR/FB way, way down. I’m assuming this has been mentioned/covered in depth here before, but that just can’t continue. His IFH% is way lower despite his GB% going up, which is kinda’ weird. But now I’m just thinking out loud, so anywho.
Crawford’s BABIP is down from career norms, but his LD% is stable, so some improvement there should be forthcoming as well. Pena, eh, who knows. He’s still a good hitter, he’s still walking, and I don’t expect him to hit .236 the rest of the way.
by acblue on
Jul 13, 2008 8:02 PM EDT
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I agree your final statement R.J.
I love this team. And this team has given me so many memorable moments already in this young season and has made me even prouder to be a native of St. Petersburg.
I think we can all agree that these boys have far out exceeded our expectations for this year. And whether this little skid is temporary or more permanent I think they have given us hope for this year and beyond that the front office is doing a very good job and committed to building a winner.
Now to my point, I may be accused of being over positive or drinking the cool aid, and I understand that everyone is entitled to their opinion, but some of the fanpost and comments on today’s game thread were a little disturbing. Talking about how this year is over and how we are not very good, just the overall bickering and pessimism that has overrun the board.
I understand this week has been tough, but lets look forward to the second half as we sail into uncharted waters and cheer on this young and entertaining team.
Protect the Trop: Keep northerners out.
by St Pete Native on
Jul 13, 2008 9:12 PM EDT
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Funny >>>>> Cute

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.
by Orlando Rays on
Jul 14, 2008 9:05 AM EDT
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