The Comprehensive Trade Post

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 3:21 PM EDT Comment 179 comments

If you're looking for the homerun derby open thread it's right below this one.

With all the trade talk buzzing around it's probably time we took looks at the 10 most commonly mentioned targets as well as some of the potential trading chips from the Rays system. In doing so we'll examine the years left, salary, and most importantly the performance we could expect while weighing the pros and cons of each option.

Jason Bay OF Pittsburgh: signed through 2009 with an annual salary of 6.625 million
Bay is without a doubt the hottest name on the market thanks to the 29 year old having a rejuvenated season. Assuming Bay is about a win and a half better than the average player for the stretch despite poor defense thanks to knee injuries leaving questions about how well and long he would hold up on Tropicana Field's turf. Of course it's possible the option of placing him as the designated hitter two times a week could alleviate some of that damage. A career left fielder Bay has spent over 5,700 innings in left and 282 innings between center and right, even then only eight of those innings were in right field. Assuming Bay can be around three wins better than an average player next season and the Rays decided against re-signing him but offered him arbitration Bay would grab the Rays two first round compensatory draft picks in 2010. Of course if by whatever tragedies and jinxes land the Rays in the sellers' pool next July Bay could be dealt at the deadline for whatever prospects a two month rental can land.

Matt Holliday OF Colorado: signed through 2009 with an annual salary of 7.225 million.
The second hottest outfielder on the market, Holliday is a bit more complicated for two reasons: 1) The Coors Field effect, 2) David Price reportedly the target. Assuming reason two is complete and utter fluff reason one can't be as easily discarded as a worry. Holliday is likely around or above a .875 OPS away from Coors but with no need to move him the Rockies can sit steadily proclaiming Holliday as a 1.000 OPS player. Historically an above average left fielder Holliday is listed as below average this season, but not by much, a shift to right field probably doesn't help him much. Taking the positional change as well as the league and park changes into consideration Holliday is still probably worth around two and a half wins over a full season. Nearly four wins over a season and a half is far from awful, however you have to keep coming back to the point that the Rockies will almost definitely sell higher than they should be able to. Scott Boras is Holliday's agent; the Rays don't exactly have a rosy relationship with him despite the Carlos Pena extension.

Xavier Nady OF Pittsburgh: under team control through 2009, enters ARB3.
The second of three Pirates we'll touch on, Nady is the other coveted corner outfielder -- one of which should likely be moved for a Nate McClouth relocation. Nady is a lesser known commodity with right fielder experience, although he doesn't seem to be particularly a glove demon, he's done an above average job this season and two of the three seasons since landing in Pittsburgh. Nady is worth three wins this season due to his incredible first half, but let's assume he reverts to his old self and becomes a one win player next half and cap his number for a season and a half around two and a half to three wins. The Pirates would be wise to sell high, and the Rays would be much smarter to avoid the presumably inflated price tag since Nady is a nice player, but definitely not worth the farm, the tractor, or the farmer's wife, but maybe the wife's tractor and a few eggs, unless of course the Rays feel Nady has legitimately turned the corner on his career.

Casey Blake Corner Fielder Cleveland: signed through 2008 at 6.1 million.
What would a trade post be without a little speculation? Try this for instance, why did Andrew Friedman pick the Cleveland series to watch the team live for a few games? Maybe it's a pure coincidence, but with some murmurs last weekend about the Rays being interested in Blake the Indians definitely obliged by placing him in the middle of the order and at first three of the games with a cameo at third. Blake isn't really what the Rays are looking for - considering he's essentially a right handed Eric Hinske - but if he's used as purely as Jonny Gomes replacement he's not bad; he sees over four pitches per plate appearance and has a decent grasp on the zone. He's only worth a win a season, which is reasonable considering his price shouldn't be too great, and he's a type B free agent, meaning the Rays would get a first round supplemental pick if they decide to let him walk which they probably should, considering Blake turns 35 in late August.

Matt Murton OF Oakland: under team control through at least four more seasons
The red-headed stepchild of the outfielder class - get it, get it?! - Murton probably carries the least cost and would fill in best if a platoon is what the Rays hope to continuing using. A decent fielder in left we'll have to assume he drops off slightly in right field, but otherwise it's hard to get a true read on Murton in the majors. In 2007 he received 261 plate appearances and in 2006 over 500, what doesn't make a ton of sense is that Murton did a really good job in 2006, playing above average at the plate and in the field and making himself a two win player, but had his playing time split in half; Murton responded by becoming a one win player in half of the time. Either as a member of a platoon or a full time starter Murton would seem to be an above average player all ready, and with his cost controlled by the team for the foreseeable future, which should include his statistical prime.

Brian Fuentes LHP Colorado: signed through 2008 at 5.05 million.
The 32 year old Fuentes is death to lefties and righties alike as we've covered in the past. As a-on-again-off-again-now-a-closer-now-a-setup-man Fuentes has been a target of teams for the past few seasons. The Yankees and Red Sox surely have their eyes on him, which not only will raise his price, but perhaps also the urgency in which the Rays would acquire him. Fuentes has been good for five pitching runs above average this season, and he's probably good for around five down the stretch. Fuentes is a type-A free agent, meaning he'll bring the Rays back two early draft picks if he decides he'd really rather play out his career elsewhere, but the price might be too high for a rental.

Ron Mahay LHP Kansas City: signed through 2009 at 4 million annually.
The Rays were in fierce pursuit this past off-season of Mahay. They settled for Trever Miller, but with the Royals potentially selling off the older parts for some midrange prospects Mahay makes as much sense for the Rays as anyone. Mahay has pitched 11 runs above average this season, but that's quite a bit over his career average, much like his innings total. Assuming he's a one, maybe one and a half win reliever over the next season and a half a lower level prospect would seem to be the price.

Damaso Marte LHP Pittsburgh: signed through 2009 at a 4 million average.
Finally we can get rid of the Pittsburgh targets by discussing Marte. He seems to make a ton of sense, perhaps more than Mahay. Marte's ceiling is a two win reliever, something he achieved back with the White Sox in 2003, but his mid-range seems to be around half of a win, which is fine for a guy who will probably give you around 60 innings. The Pirates have indicated they aren't actively looking to deal Marte, but "looking" and "listening" is not the same thing.

Jon Rauch RHP Washington: signed through 2010 at a 2.1 million average.
Another former south side member, Rauch is a 29 year old who is currently having his fourth straight good season. He's been worth nearly a 1.5 wins this year, but even if he regresses to being worth say two wins over the length of his contract that's still quite reasonable for a set-up/closer type. Rauch doesn't seem like a relief ace, but then again relief aces are rarely available as it is, he's just a really good reliever with an extremely reasonable contract that has normal throwing tendencies - unlike the oddball lefties on the list.

Huston Street RHP Oakland: under team control through 2010, entering ARB2 this off-season.
No list would be complete without Street's presence. He's probably slightly better than Rauch when you consider Street is five years younger. Early in Streets career he was worth two wins, last year he was worth a win, and with a few struggles this season Street will likely end up around a half win, but worth two wins over the next two seasons. If one doesn't get caught up in the mythology surrounding the closer it's possible Beane would trade for less than an arm and a leg. Why? Because Beane is open to trading anyone at anytime, and apparently walked away from extension talks earlier this season.

Now that we've looked at the targets, what about the bullets the Rays will use in their gun to acquire them?

Reid Brignac 22 years old SS
His recent stint completely irrelevant to the decision making process. Brignac is still very young, but he doesn't appear close to reaching the point where's above average with the bat and glove at the same time.

Jeff Niemann 25 years old RHP
Talbot got the call over Niemann before it was known to be a 72 hour stop and drop. Prone to flyballs and long innings Niemann would probably be a reasonable four/five as it stands, but he's starting to get a little too old to be considered a prospect.

Wade Davis 22 years old RHP
Perhaps the most valuable of non-Price arms? He had a little bit of a problem at AA, but recently got told he'll be in Durham post-break.

Jeremy Hellickson 21 years old RHP: Rays personnel who have seen Hellickson seem to love him.

Christopher Mason 23 years old RHP: Has hit a bit of a wall in AAA, might still have some trade value as a potential pen arm.

Mitch Talbot 24 years old RHP: Another possible reliever.

James Houser Jr. 23 years old LHP: Having an extremely strong showing this season.

Fernando Perez 25 years old CF: Speedster with some on-base skills. Think Joey Gathright, and that probably accurately describes his future with the Rays, although he's brilliant.

John Jaso 24 years old C/DH: Almost features a 2/1 BB/K ratio this season, and 1/1 for his career.

Nick Barnese 19 years old RHP: A sleeper trade target from last year's draft class.

Let's assume of those players only Niemann, Talbot, and Perez could play at the majors at this point, even then only Niemann would likely be above average, and only two wins. Talbot and Perez would probably approach one win, with no guarantees either would reach it. Essentially with the remaining prospects you're discussing future value - the younger the player the wider the range, both high and low. Where as we can guess Brignac is probably a two win player during most of his career there's no solid ground for a player like Tim Beckham.

So, it's probably time to answer the question that folks have thrown at me for a while: well what would you do? I'm going to assume that one thing is simply not happening: the Rays signing Barry Bonds. I think it's possible David Price is up this season, but maybe in a relief role. Working with that in mind there's only one trade that I've absolutely fallen in love with and it shouldn't be any surprise what it is.

Trade Reid Brignac, Fernando Perez, and Nick Barnese for Huston Street and Matt Murton.

Here's my math:
Brignac over six years is worth, let's say, around 10 wins, Perez around five, and Barnese probably two, since frankly I don't expect him to be MLB ready for three or so seasons.

That's 17 wins above average.

Street over three seasons is worth about four, maybe five wins and four seasons worth of Murton playing some platoon some full time worth six.

So around 11 wins above average.

But the Rays losing six wins above average so that's a bad deal right? Well, until you consider that none of the players given up are realistically helping this season and probably not next season. Six seasons of Street and Murton are worth 11 wins compared about 15 seasons worth of our package is worth 17 wins. The math isn't exact, and I'm being optimistic on every case, but can anyone see Brignac being a three win player, or Perez more than a single win player?

So why would Oakland do this? They're getting a young shortstop who is plus with the glove and not injury prone, a decent fourth outfielder option with good on-base skills, and a high potential19 year old pitcher with a 65% ground ball rate. Yes, Oakland all ready has an impressive decoration of young arms, but Barnese fits the Beane mold.

Of course I suck at this airmchair GMing thing, so it's possible I'm overlooking even deals that would be "better"; such as making Niemann, Davis, or Hellickson one of the key components, and Perez likely has no value, but he has more options than Justin Ruggiano and can probably be a decent defender.

The roster, pre-Price
Rotation: Kazmir/Shields/Garza/Jackson/Sonnanstine
Bullpen: Percival/Wheeler/Balfour/Howell/Reyes/Miller/Street
Lineup: Navarro/Pena/Iwamura/Longoria/Bartlett/Crawford/Upton/Murton and Gross/Hinske

What happens with Price comes up? I'm not really sure, but I imagine by then Reyes or Percival will have an ache to be cured with 15 days off.

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Comments

"two win player" -- above average or replacement

Just making sure we’re on the same scale here…

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Above average.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton/Street

from what I hear Oakland wants pitching…

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Jul 14, 2008 3:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

some thoughts

Jason Bay has historically rated as just about an average left fielder, even with his bad knees. His arm is about average, too.

Matt Holliday’s arm is about -5 runs per season and is almost +10 runs in the field. (I love you, THT.)

I’m higher than most on Holliday’s production outside Coors. You can’t just look at his road splits to judge his actual talent. For one, he doesn’t get to play road games at Coors. Two, all players tend to hit worse on the road, all else being equal. Three, there’s the possibility of the Coors Hangover Effect. Using a process to adjust for home park that seems to work for every other park, Holliday’s a 150 OPS+ hitter worth about four runs above average per season. (Bay’s about a three-win player.) If there’s reason to believe Holliday receives extra help than the typical player from Coors, I’m all ears.

It’s very tough to rate relievers based on their ERAs, let alone just 1-2 seasons’ ERA. I prefer K-rate, BB-rate, and FB%, which can be combined into an ERA projection—THT calls it xFIP. Looking at the mentioned relievers skills over the past few years, their xFIPs average out to be around. (The one problem with xFIP is that it assigns the same HR/FB rate to all pitchers, which while better than leaving HR/FB alone, should probably only regress like 50%, especially for relievers.)

Street: 3.25
Fuentes: 4.00
Marte: 3.75 to 4.00
Mahay: 4.25
Rauch: 4.00
Downs: 3.50

I’ve included Scott Downs as another option, but he’s so cheap that I’m sure Ricciardi knows his value. I’ve mentioned before that this team does not need another arm for bullpen depth as much as it needs a true ace (Howell has been close). Street is the only ace of the bunch and is worth two of the 3.75 to 4.00 xFIP guys.

I like Murton as a ballplayer and think he’ll be a one-win player for some team. But I don’t think he’s much of an improvement over what the Rays already have. Nice to have, sure. Something you give something up for? Not really.

Personally, I’d make acquiring Jason Bay my priority. The offensive upgrade in RF would be huge and he’s actually a better fielder than Hinske. Although Bay’s not quite as good as Holliday, the extra year at a good cost makes him more valuable, and the price for Holliday won’t be any cheaper. For Bay, I’d give up Brignac and Niemann, remembering that the Rays will get two draft picks when they lose Bay after 2009.

Huston Street would be my move number two, about two-thirds as important as a right fielder. Yes, he’s arbitration eligible for two more years, but I could see that costing $6MM and $9MM, so he won’t exactly be cheap. What do the A’s want for Street without Murton? I’d hope for a pitching prospect or two, but less MLB-ready.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I concur

I don’t want to lose Hinske’s bat but I also do not want to see him in RF. A RH hitting RF has to be the #1 priority of this organization right now and even for next year. There is not an everyday RF in the organization right now anywhere; if you can trade for that player and have him under control for the next two years at a reasonable price, it is a strong strategy.

I don’t buy the Perez inclusion for a deal to Oakland because Eric Patterson is there, and if he stays in the outfield, offers the same defensive abilities but a better approach at the plate. Perez still strikes out way too much for a player with his size and speed.

by Jason Collette on Jul 14, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Trade Post

RJ, I would do the Oakland deal if they would do it but I also think that they want pitching more than anything (maybe a SS like Brgnac would also be of interest) so I would think maybe we send them: Niemann, Talbot, Barnese or Brignac for Street and Murton. I really don’t want to give up Price, Davis or Hellickson in any deal if possible. One idea that I have been kicking around lately is to look at our internal options to see if we can help the big team down the stretch without needing to trade and the only roster spot that is a position player that I see coming free based on demoting someone is Jon Gomes. At this point he might even get through waivers without anyone claiming him so if we send him down who can we bring up that could impact us postively? How about F. Perez, he is tearing it up right now, is a switch hitter, hits lefties really good, gets on base regularly and can cause some disruption on the bases. We could give him a good 2.5 to 3 week trial by putting him at the top of the order and move Aki down to 9th. If he hits well and gets on base he could jump start the offense. We talked about earlier in the year whether it would be better for a lead-off type guy (McLouth, Willits) or a Power guy (Hart, Kemp etc.) Since we don’t have a power guy in the minors who is ready but we do have a possible lead-off type, why don’t we give it a trial and see what happens. I don’t remember this exactly but I think Perez is a good bunter and has good bat control as well. He could even DH (against lefties) and would be better than Jon. Perez is one of these guys that might have just gotten everything figured out and if he has maybe a lead-off guy with our national league style approach is the answer. After the break deals don’t usually go down until close to the deadline which would give us about 2 weeks to get an idea if this might work.

SC raysfan

by SC raysfan on Jul 14, 2008 4:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Niemann, Talbot, Barnese or Brignac for Street and Murton

I think we’ll see Davis for Street and Murton.

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

another under-discussed spot for improvement...

... is second-base. Sure, Aki’s very slightly above average when you include defense, but there is a nice second-base option available for trade: Mark Ellis. Ellis is slightly better offensively than Aki and at least one win better defensively, probably 1.5 (over a full year). Ellis is a free agent after this season and Aki’s signed for two more at $3.75MM each, a good deal. The only reason I don’t think Beane would want Aki is that he thinks he can resign Ellis to an advantageous deal, which is likely given how underrated he is. If the Rays could get Ellis and sign him for a couple more years at a small increase in salary about his $5MM per year rate, it would be awesome. Ellis is almost in Jason Bay territory in overall value.

Mark Ellis would also be a good option at SS if there’s any further concern about Bartlett coming back.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 4:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I prefer Aki over Ellis

by floridaroar on Jul 14, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aki isn't going anywhere.

I don’t think the Rays would give up the international exposure that Aki brings. He also has a great reputation and is well-liked. I’m sure 99% of the bay area thinks Aki is better than Upton. It just isn’t a big enough upgrade for the team to give up the intangibles.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

very interesting, thanks

That’s information that just isn’t available from many places, and one reason this blog is so great.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's a wierd situation.

For some reason everyone has really locked onto Aki. It’s probably because his defense appears better than it is (due to lack of errors) and he’s a pretty decent leadoff. He’s probably untouchable right now.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is that the fan view -- he's a good leadoff hitter?

Because while the .350 OBP is better than average, you still don’t really want a .400 SLG and .750 OPS guys at the top of the lineup.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd prefer him at #9.

Yes, it’s a fan view but he has been much better since May 1st. For some reason him and Bartlett decided to be terrible in April.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

League Change + Blake

Is there any concern about the league change that Holliday, Nady, and Bay would face? I think the AL is clearly the better hitting and pitching league and wonder the effect on the rate stats.

I’m surprised you’re so down on Casey Blake. This formatting won’t stick but here are the last three years vs. righties.

Casey Blake
PA’s avg obp slg
2008 74 0.313 0.405 0.5
2007 160 0.256 0.37 0.456
2006 134 0.272 0.366 0.561

Jason Bay
2008 91 0.219 0.363 0.397
2007 152 0.227 0.336 0.406
2006 171 0.304 0.427 0.587

Now, Bay has youth on his side but he isn’t a significant improvement over Blake against righties.

Secondly, Hinske vs. righties is perfectly fine. So is Gabe Gross. They just can’t and shouldn’t hit lefties.

Getting rid of Cliff Floyd allows enough roster flexibility to create two strict platoons. Gross/Blake in Right and Gomes/Aybar/Hinske at DH would be perfectly fine. It would also allow Aybar to play first for Pena against dominant lefties.

It isn’t the sexy move that Bay or Holliday would be. It is also not much worse than what they would add.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 5:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

half a win per full season for the league adjustment

It matters, but not all that much.

There’s no platoon to be made out of Blake and Gross, unless you’re suggesting Gross be Blake’s defensive replacement. Blake hits righties just slightly worse than Gross, even from the right side. And if you just want Blake to hit against lefties, well, that’s not much of an upgrade, especially for the price. And this production against righties is nowhere near Bay’s.

Actually, now that I look at your post again, did you quote Blake’s and Bay’s stats against LEFTIES? If so, that’s a small sample size. Bay WILL hit lefties and is much better against righties. And plays better defense.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It is against lefties...

And it is a small sample size but adds up to 400 PAs each. Not enough for anything definitive but enough to use as a better reference point then speculation.

The problem I have with all the Jason Bay or bust rhetoric is pretty simple:

-There is no guarantee Jason Bay will hit lefties all that much better than someone like Casey Blake. As you said, the above is a small sample size, but so is the rest of this year. Some people are expecting Jason Bay to kill lefties and that is the reason he is brought in. It is said that this team needs a righty slugger because they don’t hit lefties. Jason Bay hasn’t hit lefties better than Casey Blake over the last 400 PAs so it’s a coin flip whether he’d do so for the next 100.

-Will Bay continue to slug .550+ against righties? If not then he isn’t as large an upgrade as some would believe.

-Why would the Pirates trade him? There is no reason the Pirates should demand anything less than what the Rockies want for Holliday. The Pirates have him locked into a favorable deal and should demand the moon.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bay will hit against righties, too.

Sure, there’s no guarantee, but it’s a pretty good bet Bay will hit better than Blake against lefties. It’s worth playing the percentages. (There’s also the chance that Bay goes crazy to the tune of a .600 SLG, if you insist on focusing on the negative possibility.)

And most of Bay’s value, whatever some other people have argued, will come from pounding righties—the Rays can improve in this area, too. Bay’s track record, including last year’s poor season, is that of a 131 OPS+. Without last year, which some would agree has a good explanation, it’s about 140. Maybe Bay has a less extreme split against lefties than the typical righty. Ok, he’ll mash righties. If it’s just a small sample size thing, he’ll bash lefties. It’s a win-win.

Yes, I agree that Bay should be just as expensive as Holliday. And Huntington might not bend. But the market hasn’t valued extra-year players as much as they should in previous years, if memory serves (any counter-examples?) Even so, it’s worth paying as much as Holliday would cost for Jason Bay, because he’d be around next year, too.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not focusing on negatives

But it has to come into play. I’m probably over-rating the league difference but I see it as another potential problem.

When you make a trade for a perceived superstar than you expect superstar performance. I’m not saying Bay won’t deliver, I just think it’s important to evaluate the possible problems with projecting him to be the savior (which I know you aren’t).

Also, I’m not arguing that Casey Blake is better suitor than Jason Bay. I just don’t think the difference, if players are handled correctly, are as great as some think.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

about those lefty splits...

Over their careers, Blake has a 112 split OPS against lefties (lefty OPS relative to his overall OPS). Bay is at 106. So yes, Blake might have a larger split. But if you look at what these two have hit against lefties in their careers, Bay is still way better:

Bay .281/.393/.525
Blake .258/.347/.482

And then you’ve got their career splits against righties:

Bay .282/.372/.514
Blake .267/.330/.430

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why use career?

I know the sample is larger, but I’d prefer looking at three-year differences. Anything past three years just ignores any type of adjustments or improvements a player has made.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

for platoon info, you need the extra data

Ideally, you’d assess a player’s talent with a weighted three year average against both righties and lefties and then apply his career platoon-rate, probably heavily regressed.

By this I mean relative ability against lefties compared to righties, not absolute ability against either one.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Does it better correlate with future performance?

I find it hard to believe that career platoons correlate at a higher rate than three year averages. There are just so many confounding variables present.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No offense...no pun intended by the way...

But does Gomes really merut a roster spot over Floyd right now??

by arkansasraysfan on Jul 15, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think so

Unless you’re trading Hinske.

Gomes can play in the outfield (the quality is subject) and will hit lefties. Hinske duplicates Floyd.
It comes down to if you would rather have Gross in RF/Hinske DH or Hinske in RF/ Floyd DH. I think Gabe’s glove makes up the difference between the bats.

by tallyray on Jul 15, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ugh, is all i have to say,

and then this: you want to trade the SS of our future (at least the next 5 years of future) for a closer and a platoon RF? what’s Bartletts wins per year worth? how much more valuable is Brignac over Barltett?

i would never do that deal. yes, street is awesome, and i would love him. but losing who should be our starting SS out of spring next year (i honestly believe he will be, and his bat advantage over Bartlett will be huge for us) is not worth Street, even if you consider we solve our RF problem, though not optimally.

by davidsmarch on Jul 14, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Meh.

Brignac will never have an OBP over .330 and his impatience is going to be his downfall as a pro. Give me Barty until Beckham get here.

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bartlett's OBP isnt too great either

If Bartlett could get more walks, I’d rather see him and trade Brignac. But Brignac’s D is almost as good, and his bat is arguably better (through potential of course).

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And you have to take in account that Murton would be a decent starting RF under control for 4 years and Street would be an epic closer.

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton would platoon.

No way he’d start full time.

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Brignac is a mid-level prospect at this point

And really should be treated like one. There is no reason to believe that Brignac would start over Bartlett next year. Bartlett’s bat should improve and I’d expect his defense carries him through another year. There is really no reason to believe that Brignac’s bat would be a great improvement over Bartlett next year. If you’re counting on Brignac you’ll probably wait until 2010.

I’m not a Murton fan and would rather just use Ruggiano. I do think Street would be a huge help and would do what it takes (in reason) to get him.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bartlett is like 28

He’s not going to improve as much as the 22 year old. I’d say both players are equal right now, but Brignac has the much higher ceiling. Whoever can learn to get more walks should get the job.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

is Brignac's glove +10-15 runs over a full season like Bartlett's?

I can see him becoming a similar hitter in a year or two, thoguh.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think his defense is just as good

He was rated our top infield defender by BA. Remeber that Longoria was still elgible too…

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i did not know that. thanks.

If Brignac can be league-average with the bat and ten runs above average with the glove, that’s pretty good.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His arm is better

I didn’t see enough of him to comment comfortably on his range.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Barty is worth about a half of a win a season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Defensively?

I have a problem with that. I am usually a stats > watching type guy, but Bartlett has saved at least a couple games this year. Hell, his glove won a game against Boston earlier this year.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think he means overall, relative to average, although RJ can answer that

i’d put him more like one win above average overall, but whatever. he needs to hit again.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A win wouldn't be stretching it

But yes, he needs to pick up the slugging again.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That I agree with...

His hitting will improve, it has to. He was as bad an offensive player as you can be in April.

Just a question, but bhat is more important to a weak offense a better bat or a better glove? Does the run prevention at shortstop make up for the weak offense?

If a team is less than league average offensively, would you rather have good bat/less glove SS or a good glove/less bat?

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But Brignac is just as good with the glove

I’ll say it again. Both are equal right now. Great D, mediocre bat, Brignac has more power, both struggle to get walks. Whoever can learn how to get more walks should be the SS.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very doubtful

I just can’t buy that Brignac is better with the glove than Bartlett. I just can’t imagine the range is that close.

by tallyray on Jul 14, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I could have sworn

Some of those sabermetric stats RJ loves, shows Bartlett only had average or slightly above average range so far. You gotta remember, Brignac is not a slow dude either.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not speaking for R.J. or anyone else here

but individual fielding metrics are really not very good as of yet, especially with a sample smaller than three years or so. Defense (individually, at least,) is much more reliably judged by traditional scouting methods, and as far as I’m aware the consensus seems to be that Bartlett is better than Brignac in the field at this point in time.

by acblue on Jul 14, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

why mess with a good thing with bartlett

barty was starting to hit and with out him we would of lost that game vs boston and he has much more speed than brignac so i would stick with barty and trade brignac for huston street

by RaysOfHope on Jul 14, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i wouldn't care, it's nitpicking

But to nitpick, in lower scoring environments (good pitching and fielding or bad hitting), the difference of one run matters a touch more. So, it’s more effective to improve the defense when the defense is already good than when it sucks. And it’s more effective to improve the hitting when it sucks than when it’s good.

It’s more important to properly value both offense and defense with the same unti—runs is good. A +20 glove is just as helpful as a +20 bat. And the first usually comes cheaper. And helps your pitchers look good so they can become trade bait. (Ahem, Oakland.)

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For what its worth

A scout I talked to who covers the Rays told me that in his opinion Bartlett is the most complete and best player on this team.

Protect the Trop: Keep northerners out.

by St Pete Native on Jul 15, 2008 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i feel sorry for the team he works for

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 15, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton was a two win player as a full timer in 2006.

That .809 OPS as a 24 year old is above the AL average RF.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll be honest

I’ve only looked into Murton a little bit. I know he can hit lefties well, but can he hit righties. I like Bay for his ability to hit both.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton's actually seen more righties than lefties and has an okay, if not great, split.

League average for RHB v. RHP is around .714, Murton’s career is .757. RHB v. LHP is .770, Murton is .882.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

relative to average? i don't buy that

i see him as half a win on offense and maybe another half on defense in 2006. in 500 PAs.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i take that back

no defense bonus, as his position penalty wipes out his good fielding.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I used BRAA+FRAA and used that for my estimate

In 2006 13 FRAA and 7 BRAA. Is there a better system of doing so?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

here's what i do

I won’t claim it’s better, though. Actually, i will, just because i don’t trust BPro’s numbers all that much. I won’t claim it’s the best method, though.

I go to B-Ref and look at either BtRuns or BtWin, which are park-adjusted linear weights relative to average. That’s offense. Then you do the position adjustment, which I take from Tango:

CA +10
SS/CF +5
2B/3B 0
LF/RF -5
1B -10
DH -15

Then fielding your position. For fielding, you HAVE to use a play-by-play metric. UZR is nice for 2000 through 2006. PMR is good. Dewans’s +/- is good, although you have to convert it to runs (say, .8 runs per play). THT’s RZR with OOZ, and then converted to runs is good. STATS ZR, too. Not easy to get that all in one place, though.

For Murton, I went with half a win on offense from B-Ref (ok, three runs), minus half a win due to position (ok, minus three runs for only 500 PAs), and then estimated half a win in the field. Looking at UZR now, Murton’s at +11 runs in 2006. Wow, nice. So I’d put him at a one-win player in 2006.

When comparing across leagues, I’d subtract a quarter win from an NL player and add a quarter win to an AL player over a full year.

If you want to convert to replacement level (and you should for moderately real analysis), just add two wins per 700 plate appearances. For reference, I got this “method” from Sean Smith.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see.

I’ll try this method in the future. Thanks.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the best, jerry, the best

Justin over at On The Reds has the best player ratings out there. He calculates his own BaseRuns linear weights, handles replacement level and positional adjustments properly, and calculates fielding from both BIS and STATS zone ratings as well as Tango’s Fans Scouting Report. And he penalizes the NL relative to the AL. He used to just post Reds results on a weekly basis, but he just started making everything available. He follows a similar process for pitchers. If he ever finishes moving and posts again, we’ll have a 2008 update since June 15th: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pfk_WuYpfduxD65LZJwerdw

oh, here are the leaders as of june 23rd: http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/06/total-value-ytd-through-23-june.html

Finally, some respect for Grady Sizemore. And BJ Upton rates as the third most productive center fielder as of the 15th.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Go get Bay!

Niemann, Aybar, Cobb and Mason for Bay. I would not want, in any trade, for us to trade Barnese. The guy is amazing. He’ll get alot of attention next year in the Sally league. If he keeps this up, he might make BA top 100 like Hellickson did at 20. I would maybe take out Cobb and Mason and put in Brignac but the Pirates offense is already good. They need pitching.

Niemann could easily be the #2 on the staff right now. Mason, in that division and that team, might be able to stay as a starter. Cobb is a good prospect who might crack the BA top 100 prospect list next year and he’s likely 2 years away. In other words, he’s a nice prospect that should be worth the wait.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't Bay's knees on our turf

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

But we’ve also played more than half our home games already.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's under contract until the '09 offseason

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another good point

But its like someone already said, we have him DH a couple days a week. Besides, when was the last time you heard him complaining about his knees like Crawford does 15 times a year? I have to assume his knees are ok for now.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How many times have we followed Pittsburgh closely?

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont see why we would

But I do know some Pirates fans. They said his knees bothered him in 07 but he’s 100% now. Of course, that’s their word and they could be wrong.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When was the last time Bay played on turf for more than four games at a time?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No clue

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing a lot of Carl's problems are from the old turf.

Or at least hoping.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Possible

You dont hear BJ, Gross, Hinkse or Delmon (last year) complaining about it tho.

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last year was the first year with the new turf.

So hopefully that’s been fixed. Guess we won’t know for a few years.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is it just me

Or does CC have a different running style. Sometimes he looks like he runs sort of flat-footed in the OF. However he does it, it looks hard on his knees…

by EminenceFront on Jul 14, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's looked a bit odd at times running

But if that’s the way he runs there’s not much to do about it.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's called laziness.

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A lot depends on

Rocco’s possible return. If management feels that Rocco will come back and be somewhat effective this year, would that not be a help to the DH/RF platoon. I’m not sold that they are going to trade for a platoon player like Murton if they feel Rocco can do the job. That being said, it’s highly unlikely that he’ll be able to be the player he once was and they may have to get a platoon RF.

(Maybe I’m biased b/c Rocco is my favorite player idk)

by EminenceFront on Jul 14, 2008 5:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Chances that Rocco will be back: 5%, and I'm being optimistic

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So you're saying theres a chance!

by EminenceFront on Jul 14, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he meant .5%

lol

by dannythegreat on Jul 14, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

by EminenceFront on Jul 14, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Playing devil’s advocate again… What are the chances the A’s would trade Street/Murton for a shortstop with hack tendencies, a fourth outfielder and low-minors arm? There’s nothing wrong with Barnese, but don’t the A’s usually mitigate the risk of injury by focusing on pitchers closer to the majors? Put it all together and it just doesn’t sound like an A’s trade. I think it would take one of Hellickson, Davis or Niemann (maybe) for this trade to get off the ground.

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 14, 2008 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Probably not good.

Plus Fernie Perez is a duplicate of Eric Patterson.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m thinking if there is a multi-player deal involving major prospects to be made, it will be with the Pirates. They have some potentially solid bats close to the majors and could use some pitching quality and depth, which the Rays can offer. With the trade value of Bay and Nady near or at its peak, now would be an ideal time for them to make a move (although it is possible the Pirates may believe they are better off waiting until this off-season when there are more teams interested in upgrading the outfield). A couple of good deals could open a window of opportunity for them to compete in 3-4 years.

Meanwhile, the Rays front office is not going to overpay and jeopordize the future.. so I still think chances of a deal are slim and, at most, would expect a Marte (or Mahay) deal, but really won’t be surprised if nothing happens in the next 2+ weeks.

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 15, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Skyking

What are your thoughts on Nady? It seems the consensus want either a Bay or Street trade, but for some reason I think Nady is the right fit. RJ’s post above seems to think that he will regress in the second half (which makes sense given his BABIP) but it seems like he is peaking into a very good ballplayer. I also heard on 620 today (not very reliable) that the yankees are very close to a deal with him – what the hell could they offer that we don’t have or aren’t willing to give up? My preference would be to give up Brignac/Talbot for Nady.

Johnny let his baby brother sleep, through the back door and baseball, all the kids are waiting outside, Old days come and go too soon Old friends, heroes, lifetimes. Don't let a single memory fade away

by LeftRight on Jul 14, 2008 7:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pirates want a lot of Nady

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 14, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This person is an idiot

who cannot type. For Nady, not of Nady.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 14, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nady has a career .70 OPS dip after the ASB break

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 14, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

that means nothing

Nady’s good, but he’s no Bay. There’s nothing in his batted ball profile that suggests fluke—lots of line drives and flyballs. The thing that makes him more productive than last year or earlier in his career is his batting average. It’s come up about .050 points. His walk rate is the same and his isolated power is the same. But given that he’s never had a year like this before, his projection going forward is a lot lower than Bay’s. (And Bay’s first half was even better than Nady’s.)

Nady also has a poor arm, about five runs worse than average over a full season. Bay’s arm is average. I haven’t looked it up, but I think Nady is an average corner fielder, like Bay. Overall, he’s probably 1.5 to 2 wins worse than Bay over a full season, albeit with no injury issues. And he’s the same age as Bay. He’s also under team control for one more year, salary to be decided by an arbiter, probably in the same range as Bay’s $7.5MM salary.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We inquired on Nady, the price was too high.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what were they asking?

It looks like all they want is Ross Ohlendorf from the yankees.

by LeftRight on Jul 14, 2008 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't know the specifics

But they’ll get more than just Ohlendorf from the Yankees I’m quite sure.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I sure as hell hope so

because he seems like a perfect here and it seems like we have exactly what the pirates need: Brignac.

by LeftRight on Jul 14, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, because the Yankees need another LF/RF/DH option

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Unfortunately for us

it seems like this years market pushing demand for RP and Corner outfielders. SP have already been taken off the block. At the end of the day, we have the most to offer, and I trust our front office will make a move to improve this years team (a legit contender) even if it means giving up what COULD be our future. A prospect is just that – a prospect. I am sure that our team will be good for many years to come, but to be in this position right now will most likely be a rarity in years to come.

by LeftRight on Jul 14, 2008 7:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

there are three good OFs obviously available (Bay, Nady, Holliday)

I could see the Pirates only trading one guy to save PR face, but are there more than two playoff contenders in need of a corner outfielder and willing to pay the price (i.e. not the Twins). Yankees, evidently, for whatever reason. But who else?

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Milton Bradley?

by LeftRight on Jul 14, 2008 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton?

by LeftRight on Jul 14, 2008 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I was asking how many teams are in need of a corner outfielder, not how many are available

Because I don’t think the demand is really all that high.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Great hitter but:

Doesn’t fit with team chemistry.
Can’t stay healthy.

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why wouldn't Bradley upset the "team chemistry"?

by acblue on Jul 15, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Err...why WOULD he, rather.

by acblue on Jul 15, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Didn't we just trade away Dukes?

They are pretty much the same personality. Think powder keg with a lit fuse.

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Elijah Dukes is certifiably insanse.

Milton Bradley has a reputation for being a bad-tempered guy that doesn’t really reflect reality all that much. There are people with far worse attitudes than his doing just fine in the majors.

by acblue on Jul 15, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Without looking I'll assume yes on both cases

But we really, really, really don’t want this:

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I dont want either of those guys

my comment was referring to the current market place.

by LeftRight on Jul 14, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aw c'mon, it's good to laugh.

by acblue on Jul 15, 2008 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

OMG! Who is that? Gomes?

B Rad the Ray Fan
9 = 8

by B Ray on Jul 15, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ibanez.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ibanez in Left, Gomes in Center, and Canseco in Right

BJ at SS.
Bill Hall at 3B.
Cantu at 2B.
Sexson at 1B.

Let the fun begin. Weeeeeee!

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Put Griffey in Center instead.

by acblue on Jul 15, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are more.

by acblue on Jul 15, 2008 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd take Dunn at DH and leave Hinske in the field, but no thanks on Ibanez.

Sounds like the Reds are quibbling about even offering arbitration to Dunn, so the price can’t be that high.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 14, 2008 8:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dunn would be great if we got the new stadium.

Very small RF. He could be our Manny. Anything not hit to him is either a home run or foul.

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Choke

Do not think that what is hard for you to master is humanly impossible; but if a thing is humanly possible, consider it to be within your reach.

by Orlando Rays on Jul 14, 2008 10:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fail.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 14, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Greetings

I’m the nefarious and well-travelled grover, visiting from AthleticsNation. I came by to start a thread about Street to the Rays but I see RJ already took care of that. Thank you.

I realize that this isn’t exclusively a trading-for-Street thread, but I’d like to make an Oakland biased response to the proposal of Brignac/Perez/Barnese for Street/Murton.

No.

Here are the problems with the proposal.

1) Brignac isn’t that great of a trade chip. BA and BP both questioned how good he could be on defense in their pre-season scouting, with both groups giving him an average ceiling with the glove. His range seemed to be the principle concern. I don’t know if he’s improved in this area since the season started, and if you have source material that can sooth this concern then I’d be happy to read it.

As it is, in a perfect world Brignac is supposed to be an average defensive SS with great offensive skills. My question is, where’s the bat? He’s hit a fair amount of doubles this year but his strike zone judgement has been shaky at best. The A’s like guys who can control the strike zone and if a hitter struggles in that regard he better show more offensive production. Brignac hasn’t done that since A-ball.

2) Perez, by your own acknowledgment, is a 4th OFer at best. Even if Murton was included in the deal the A’s would still be 4 deep in the OF and that could go 5 deep if Oakland re-signs Mark Ellis, thus bumping Eric Patterson into the OF. There’s no place for another back-up OFer.

3) Barnese is in SS ball. Why? Assuming he’s been healthy all year, he’s still an awful long way from making the Show.

This package isn’t going to land Huston Street. There are a lot of teams looking for bullpen help, Tampa isn’t bidding in a vaccum.

And we haven’t even talked about adding Murton to the deal.

I admit to not knowing the Rays’ farm system very well, I know the big names like Price and McGee and Davis but what the A’s really need is bats. Desmond Jennings would intrigue but he’s on the DL and I don’t know why. I’m not saying the names that have already been brought up by RJ wouldn’t be part of an eventual deal, just the specific combination of Brignac/Perez/Barnese has a snowball’s chance in Hell.

Not to be rude, but ‘tis the truth.

If anyone would like to discuss what (I think) a deal would have to include I’d be more then happy to converse. I’m really not a bad guy until you get to know me!

I’ll start things off…

What’s the deal with Jennings? Why did he miss the start of the season and why is he on the DL now? He’s someone I think the A’s would be very interested in IF he’s going to get healthy soon.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 15, 2008 2:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I suck at GMing

To answer your questions about Desmond, he missed the end of last year with minor knee surgery, the beginning of this year with a back injury, and he’s out now with shoulder surgery.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You don't suck at GMing, just under practiced

As for Desmond, sounds as if he’s about due for a wreath!

So with Desmond muerto, and Brignac not setting my world on fire, who’s the next best position prospect in the Tampa organization?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 15, 2008 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the problem, we don't have many.

Outside of Desmond/Brignac/Beckham we’re pretty tapped out. Jaso is probably third, and after that it’s just filler type. Ryan Royster would be up there if he didn’t completely nose dive after last season.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much how I read things as well.

OK.

Do you think the Rays would be willing to include one of McGee/Davis as a centerpiece to a deal?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 15, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes.

McGee probably not though, considering he’s out for the remainder of the season with TJS.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scratch McGee from the list

Not to sound snide, but where are all these great prospects the Tampa system is supossed to have?

I’m struggling to find guys who jump out and yell “pick me, pick me!” So I’ll give you the names of the guys who I think would interest the A’s and you can help me scale down the list.

Brignac is still young enough, so let’s start with him. Wade Davis. Jeremy Hellickson. Heath Rollins. Nick Barnese. DJ Jones. Austin Hinkle. Mitch Talbot.

Do you think we could pull together a deal using these names?

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 15, 2008 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Frank Thomas?

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 15, 2008 10:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Big Hurt has lost his fastball

And the only breaking stuff he has left are his body parts. I just don’t see him being the answer to your bullpen woes.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 15, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I have to admit I laughed my ass off at that.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 17, 2008 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see you've got the same problem as Thomas

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 17, 2008 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but your problem has more to do with that huge growth hanging on your chest

you know, the one that keeps stamping on your feet and asking you to carry him around all the time ;)

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 17, 2008 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

At least 13 more years before that problem goes away

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 17, 2008 4:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pirates need quantity

The Pirates minor league system is so bad that I would think they’d be very interested in Brignac (they have no one behind Jack Wilson, as was obvious this year when he got hurt), and some of our pitching prospects – without having to talk about guys like Davis, and Hellickson. Niemmen, Talbot, or Hammel could work in there. Send them Brignac and 2 pitchers for Marte and Nady (I’d rather have Bay, but we’d have to give up more)

by TallMatt on Jul 15, 2008 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I just do not like the Street and Murton deal. I don’t think we need a closer. Bullpen help? Sure. Closer? No. We have adequate options for this year and a bunch of possible scenarios to gain a closer for the future next year and beyond. No need to pay top dollar for a closer. If a LHP is truly a need then we can get a middle reliever at a much lower cost. Personally I don’t think it is that big of a need. And the Front Office has tod etermine what is going to happen with David Price first. If he is going to the pen then that solves the bullpen issue this year.

Regarding RF I just do not think we should go for Murton. The risk is huge. And there is a chance the guy is a bust. He couldn’t crack it in Chicago and it isn’t like they had good players in front of him. He surely wasn’t blocked. He just wasn’t good enough. Murton is a type of guy we should have traded for in years past. Guys with potential but also have failed to live up to the hype. Now we are BUYERS. We have to buy a player that has something more of a track record.

My hope is we go after Bay, Holliday, Dunn, Blake, or Nady in that order. Of course we want to get the best deal. I also do not think we should go for any bullpen help unless it is very cheap. Just get rid of one of the Hinske, Gross, or Floyd trio (either via trade or dfa) plus Gomes. I’d prefer Floyd to go (maybe give him a coaching gig or something). Use one roster spot on the player we trade for and one more on a minor league arm for the pen. I think the pen would be just fine if we added one of our arms that we already have.

by matthan on Jul 15, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I also think Brignac is an decent improvement over Bartlett. Bartlett has very good range, but he isn’t some God with the glove. Brignac will at worst be slightly worse than Barty. However, Brignac is better with the bat and has a far higher ceiling.

I also like Hellickson over Davis. But I do like both quite a bit.

Price is untouchable so he shouldn’t even be in any sort of discussion. Put it this way if the Rockies want Price then they better be willing to give up Tulo also. Something like Tulo and Holliday for Brignac, Price, and Neimann. Not going to happen, but the point is Price is beyond untouchable.

by matthan on Jul 15, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're wrong about Murton

He “wasn’t blocked” uh, what? You mean he wasn’t blocked in 2006, when he was very solid, and not that he wasn’t blocked in 2005 by Todd Hollandsworth (Murton outdid him) or in 2007 when Soriano/Jones/Floyd did a great job of keeping Murton out of the lineup despite Jones being awful and Floyd having no business playing the field.

We have to buy a player that has something more of a track record.

Let’s play the career EqA game:
Murton .272
Baldelli .262
Nady .276
Blake .264

So he’s actually better than one of the guys you want more and almost even with another. You act like Murton is a prospect, but he’s 26, has a solid track record, and would make a fine platoon partner with Gross or Hinske, the guy has a .882 OPS against lefties in his career, isn’t that what you want, a lefty killer? Or would you rather have:

Bay’s .918
Holliday’s .909
Dunn’s .830

I’m going to assume Murton’s price tag is not near any of those three and say the drop off probably isn’t worth the raise in price.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And don't mistaken me for saying he's the best player

I know Bay/Holliday are better all around, I’m simply stating that his bat against lefties is good, that doesn’t mean he hits righties as well as the others either.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t want an OF platoon (Dh platoon is ok). And of course price tag matters.

by matthan on Jul 15, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What is wrong with an OF platoon?

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 15, 2008 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There's some natural given fear of platoons

Despite teams using platoons (and using them well) to win pennants and such throughout history.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

You aren’t grasping a simple concept.

I’ll make it painfully simple:

If we have an everyday RFer then we only need 1 roster spot to do so
If we have a platoon as RF then for us we are using 3 roster spots (Hinske, Gross, Gomes)

If we have an everday DH then we only need to commit 1 roster spot
Since we use a platoon here with a whopping 5 players (Hinske, Gross, Gomes, Floyd, Aybar) it requires 5 roster spots.

Now to be nice I’ll say Aybar isn’t a DH and is an actual utility player (but as we know when we face lefties he has been in the DH role)

So that means we are currently using 4 players to fill 2 starting spots.

It is simple numbers. Not intense crazy statistics like you are used to. Basic subtraction.

If by chance can cut that to three then we FREE ONE roster spot. If we can cut that to 2 then we can FREE TWO roster spots.

That means we could carry another bullpen arm. Or perhaps put a speedster on the bench to PR in a critical base stealing scenario.
When you carry so many similar players you end up with a deficient amount of players that would have other roles (middle relief, speed, back up IF, etc).

There is a SERIOUS roster problem when Gomes is your pinch runner in critical scenarios. Or what about having absolutely horrible fielders such as Gomes and Hinske out there? It is due to major roster redundancy caused by having two platoons made up of players with similar skills.

That being said I am not as much against Murton as I am against keeping Hinske, Gross, AND Floyd. I know that by getting Murton we will keep those three players and get rid of Gomes. The same roster problem will exist.

by matthan on Jul 15, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hinske/Floyd are redundancies of each other.

Floyd could be in his last playing year, Hinske in his last Rays year. Focus on now and later and I think Murton/Gross win the game in the end.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But

Gross has not been the starting DH at any point this season, and has only pinch hit for the DH once (April 29th)

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 15, 2008 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hinske>Floyd

Floyd is the odd man out.

Why is having a platoon such a bad thing when there really isn’t a need for the other roster spot? The bullpen has never been in trouble and two guys go relatively unused (Hammel/Glover). A pinch runner would be nice but why not use that spot for someone who would have a bigger offensive impact… like a platoon player?

by tallyray on Jul 15, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that a 3-man platoon is stupid

But I’d rather have a platoon than a seventh bullpen arm or a speedy pinch-runner extraordinaire. The platoon is more valuable. Of course, if you can have one player who hits lefties and righties as well as the platoon, great. That usually costs more and is harder to find, though.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 15, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Other than age...

Why are you so fond of Murton over Blake?

by tallyray on Jul 15, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's a ginger lover.

B Rad the Ray Fan
9 = 8

by B Ray on Jul 15, 2008 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Baby RJ

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Jul 15, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

NEXT TIME MAKE IT BIGGER

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Age/service time play into it big time.

Murton will be under contract through his prime years, Blake will be a 35 year old FA.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good reason

I figured service time played into it but didn’t bother looking. Thanks.

by tallyray on Jul 15, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's not to say I wouldn't mind Blake if the price is too high for Murton

But I can’t imagine Murton’s price being anything but equal.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RJ

This year they have Reed freaking Johnson playing in the OF. And they went out and signed Fukodome. If they were that high on Murton they would have found a way to put him on the field. And he wasn’t blocked. Jones sucks. Floyd sucks (when you factor him playing the field). He was never truly blocked in Chicago. Chicago CHOSE to play OTHER PLAYERS over Murton. And those OTHER PLAYERS are not that good. Certainly not good enough that would justify playing time over a supposed super prospect…

I’d prefer to get someone that could play RF nearly everyday instead of adding another bat to the platoon. I’m not a fan of having essentially a platoon at two positions (RF and DH) with quite a few players. That simply takes up too many roster spots. I want to trim the fat.

Get a full time RF (ditch Gomes)
Promote a reliever (ditch Floyd)

Use Hinske, Gross, Aybar as a platoon at DH. And as an added bonus all three of those guys can play multiple positions.

Having two platoons (RF and DH) plus a player that is strictly a DH is just not a very efficient way of constructing a roster.

by matthan on Jul 15, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So what you're saying didn't know what it was doing?

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rays trades

I have a few Rays I’d have in mind for KC if we traded them Mahay, because he will not come cheap. I’d love if Johnny Gomes was a throw in too. The Rays are loaded with young talent and building a franchise the right way and your GM is to be commended. Great job.

If you’d like, check out our site at http://www.diehard101.com/phpfox and enjoy. It’s kind of a MySpace for sportsfans of all ages.

by THEbobhamelin on Jul 15, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

How's this sound?

The Pirates want to deal Jack Wilson, they have a potential buyer in the Dodgers but they need someone to take Wilson’s place so… The Rays trade Jonny Gomes, Reid Brignac, Jeff Niemann and a PTBNL to Pittsburgh for Jason Bay and Damaso Marte. You gotta give something to get something. I hate to lose Niemann and Brignac but let’s face it, Niemann is blocked and Brignac is going to be overpassed by Beckham soon.

Rays Cut Glover to make room for Marte.

Rays trade Nick Barnese to the Phillies for Brett Myers. Lidge just got a contract extension, Myers wants out.

Rays cut Trevor Miller to make room for Myers.

New lineup is:
CF: Upton
LF: Crawford
1B: Pena
RF: Bay
DH: Floyd/Hinske
3B: Longoria
C: Navarro
SS: Bartlett
2B: Aki

New Bullpen looks like:
Percival, Reyes, Wheeler, Myers, Marte, Balfour, Howell

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 4:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Myers is a fun name to think about

He’s got talent, but he hasn’t used it recently.

He’s got character issues.

The Phillies may drastically undersell him. Or not.

He’s set to make $12MM next year. Ouch. That would only be worth it if he can regain his starter form.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 15, 2008 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Or His Closer Form

Percival and Reyes are likely in their last year. With all the youth and vigor of this team we seem to lack an immediate solution at Closer. Who is our “Closer of the Future?” Wheeler? Morlan?

by floridaroar on Jul 15, 2008 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

$12MM for a closer is not a good idea for the Rays, even if it's Mo

Heck $12MM for a starter isn’t a good idea unless it’s Johan Santana. With the glut of pitching prospects that the Rays have, putting together a good, deep bullpen will not be in an issue in the coming years. I agree that a relief ace is hugely valuable, though. JP Howell almost fits the mold this year, but it would be great to have someone even a bit better. It’s not worth spending a lot of money on, though—someone, even if we can’t pick that someone right now, is bound to break out as a lights-out guy. It could be Howell making more improvements. It could be Balfour showing he’s for real. It could be Niemann or another young starter converted to the pen if he “fails” as a starter. It could be one of the reliever prospects. Even if you put the chances of any one pitcher turning into a stud reliever at 10%, throwing ten of them against the wall will almost certainly turn up something.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good points.

by floridaroar on Jul 16, 2008 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just to comment on a couple things

What is it about Gomes 185/292/395 do you think the Pirates will find appealing? Brignac and Niemann might be good enough to build a deal around, especially if you drop Marte from the equation. A lot’s going to depend on how much the Pirates love Brignac. If they aren’t absolutely ga-ga over him you’d probably have to substitute Davis for Niemann. Check that, you’ll probably have to include both Davis and Niemann!

You’ll certainly have to include a 2nd pitcher even if you’re lucky enough to keep Davis out of the deal. Probably Hellickson.

So Brignac/Niemann/Hellickson might be solid enough to be in the running if the Pirates really like Brignac. Remember, if Bay is truly on the market the Rays will not be bidding in a vaccum… they’ll have to out-bid the other teams and Bay is not going to be a bargain.

As for your Myers idea. Forget it. The Phillies are in 1st place in the NL East. They’re shopping for pitching, not looking to trade a big league SP for an A-ball pitcher.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 15, 2008 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huntington is smart enough to realize Jonny Gomes' skills aren't defined by his 2008 first half stats

Not that he’s all that good, I agree.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's just it

Gomes isn’t very good and now you’d be selling him at his absolute low value.

Check that, when he has no value what-so-ever.

Gomes would be a throw in, not someone who’s going to get you anywhere in acquiring Bay.

The monster at the end of this blog.

by grover on Jul 16, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My 2 cents

I have been on board for trying to pick up Holliday from the start. I don’t think he will be as bad away from Coors as people think and he has been hitting like a mad man after a slow start to the season.

If we can't get Holliday I would like to see us go after Dunn, yes he is a liability in the field and that is why we would use him as a DH. This move would almost require us to cut Floyd because he can't play OF and would be useless.Stay with Hinske -> Gross late innings.

As far as relievers go I don’t want to see us give up much at all. If we can get Street or Fuentes for a couple mid to lower level prospects do it but there is no way I would give up Hellickson, Davis, Niemann, or Brignac for a reliever. Our pen is too good right now to give up some good pieces for a change that isn’t really necessary. IMO ponying up for Holliday is better than say the same price getting you Murton and Street.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 15, 2008 5:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

THey're asking for Price. That's way more than the A's are probably asking for Mureet.

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure the A's are asking for Price too

and than we are counter offering. That is how deals usually workout. Now obviously if the Rockies refuse to deal without Price involved than you say no.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 15, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Murton is not equal to Holliday...

And I don’t really understand the constant dismissal of “They’re asking for Price.” I’d imagine every single team asks for Price. That doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t happen without Price.

Holliday is better than Bay and better than Murton. I’d rather have Holliday for two years than Bay for two or Murton for three. Murton is easily the cheapest but also the least impact. I don’t think Bay is going to cost that much more than Holliday would.

by tallyray on Jul 15, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

more = less...

I’m an idiot that doesn’t proofread.

by tallyray on Jul 15, 2008 6:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure that Holliday is a better player than Bay.

We’ve been down this road over and over again, but I remain unconvinced.

by acblue on Jul 15, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Holliday is better. But Bay is more valuable, given his contract.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 15, 2008 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

$6 million difference...

Which is pretty significant. I just think a lot of people are under the impression that Bay is better than Holliday due to the Coors effect. Bay has had a pretty severe home/road split this year, though that’s most likely sample driven.

This year on the road (sample size be damned): Holliday is hitting .301/.400/.459 and Bay is hitting .268/.402/.436

The fact that Bay is signed to a much more favorable due makes his price, imo, awfully similar to Bay’s.

by tallyray on Jul 15, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never damn the sample size -- small PA splits are pointless

I’d pay more for Nady than Holliday, too. That extra year at a good price is extremely important. Let’s say we do get Holliday, even for something as cool as Niemann. What happens in RF for 2009? We still have that problem to address. With Bay or Nady, you have a good bat for an extra year. 2010 is far enough away that you don’t have to overreact this off-season or have another hole in 2009.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2008 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't Holliday locked up for next year?

Or am I mistaken. I believe he’s in for $13 million next year. The off-field difference between him and Bay is the $6 million dollars extra he is owed next year.

by tallyray on Jul 16, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you're right, thanks -- $13.5MM

Well that’s different, then. I’d put Holliday as 1-1.5 wins better than Bay over a full season, which is worth about $6MM on the free agent market. Given the Rays’ payroll, I’d rather take the initial $7.5MM owed to Bay which is a good deal (as is the first $7.5MM owed to Holliday) and not pay the additional $6MM at market rate for the improvement.

But knowing that, Bay is no longer a MUCH better trade option in my mind.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 16, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow not sure what happened in the middle there but here is what I said

If we can’t get Holliday I would like to see us go after Dunn, yes he is a liability in the field but we would just play him at DH and every now and than in the OF. I know everyone wants a RH bat but unless Pena turns it around we don’t really have a power LH bat either. Dunn would come in and give us a big time HR/RBI guy right away. As a result Floyd would most likely be cut because he would be useless. I think we could afford to stay with Hinske/Gross in RF.

by Dbullsfan on Jul 15, 2008 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I really need to figure out why it does that.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

wow forget about holliday...

on espns mlb rumor mill they have reported that the rockies offered the mets holliday/taveras for beltran/ fernando martinez are they stupid or something or do they think that duquette is still the GM of the mets because no way the mets accept that deal, they probably answered the phone and they when they talked about that deal started laughing and hung up

by RaysOfHope on Jul 16, 2008 11:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

that doesn't even make sense...

by tallyray on Jul 16, 2008 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Why would the Mets trade one elite OFer (although theirs is better) for another and their top prospect, for another elite, albeit lesser OFer and a bad CF?

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And what does taking on Beltran's contract accomplish?

That “rumor” is nonsense.

by floridaroar on Jul 17, 2008 6:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cost Certainty

It’s very likely Holliday will be making more than Beltran in a few years.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 17, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"taking on beltran's contract"?

It’s not like it’s a bad contract. In fact, $18.5MM for three more years is a bargain. Beltran, like his center field counterpart in the AL, Grady Sizemore, is extremely underrated. He’s one of the ten best position players in the game. I put him at 4.5 wins above average (2.5 offense, .5 position, 1.5 field), or 6.5 above replacement level. On the free agent market, that’d cost between $25MM and $30MM per year.

On a somewhat related note, Omar Minaya has done a poor job of supplementing his big three position players—Beltran, Wright, and Reyes are all among the top ten to fifteen position players in the game. Two of them make barely any money. And yet they don’t have another guy in the lineup better than league average. (Ryan Church, maybe.) But yeah, blame Willy Randolph.

by Sky Kalkman on Jul 17, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A's Perspective

Grover touched on this earlier, but the A’s priority right now is offense. The A’s do love them some pitching prospects, but the A’s have quite a few of them:

Brett Anderson
Trevor Cahill
Gio Gonzalez
Henry Rodriguez
Vince Mazzaro
Craig Italiano
James Simmons
Andrew Carignan
Arnold Leon
Tyson Ross
Michel Inoa
Travis Banwart
Fautino De Los Santos

with Sean Gallagher, Greg Smith and Dana Eveland in their first years in the MLB Rotation.

So if the A’s made a trade, in terms of pitching, the A’s would probably ask for at least one big time pitching prospect from the Rays, as a mid or lower pitching prospect wouldn’t have much of an impact in the system.

The A’s system’s weakness as a whole is offense. The A’s have several good 1B/DH prospects; Sean Doolittle (AA) and Chris Carter (A+). They have several OF prospects (Aaron Cunningham CF AA, Travis Buck OF AAA, Carlos Gonzalez CF MLB, Ryan Sweeney CF MLB, Corey Brown CF A+, Matt Sulentic OF A+), but the A’s have very very little when it comes to Infield Talent. They have newly drafted Jamile Weeks who might be able to play 2B in several years, they have the newly acquired Eric Patterson who might be able to play 2B but is more likely to be an outfielder. But at SS and 3B, they do not have anyone in the system that would be much better than replacement level or a good bench player.

And the A’s system also lacks an impact hitter, a superstar/elite hitting prospect, which is why I would much rather have gotten LaPorta as the Indians did than Gallagher in the Harden trade.

But even with the weakness in the system for offense, I do not doubt that the A’s would make a deal of Street and Murton for pitching. And while I hope the A’s would then be able to deal Pitching prospects for Hitting, akin to the Volquez/Hamilton trade or the Young/Garza trade, they haven’t done it yet…

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Jul 17, 2008 3:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs