Little Weapon

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2008 2:03 PM EDT Comment 32 comments

With Tim Beckham finally recording his first extra base hit this past week I figured on a league wide off day it would be a nice time to review what Beckham has done since being drafted first overall in early June. After nearly 60 plate appearances Beckham's .176/.254/.196 line is a bit lackluster, even for an 18 year old in his first pro ball experience.

Beckham has five walks and 11 strikeouts thus far, along with a hit by pitch, stolen base, and one grounder resulting in a double play. Beckham's committed five errors but using the only defensive metric I can find for minor leaguers, range factor, Beckham rates out at 4.45 for comparison B.J. Upton's career RF at short is 4.31. In other words: Beckham covers more ground than water and his error total seems to be a bit skewed since he did make two errors in one game.

Now addressing his batting approach and extended statistics, take a look at this table comparing him to a few other Rays teenagers:

Player	BB%	K%	BABIP
Upton	12.9	18.7	0.364
Young	9.36	21.2	0.38
Jennings	8.94	15.9	0.324
Beckham	8.5	18.6	0.225
Brignac	8.26	9.91	0.418
Baldelli	4.9	22.9	0.272
Crawford	4.76	17.2	0.354
Hamilton	4.35	17.7	0.357

Not too shabby considering his low .400's OPS, but here's the catch: Beckham's hitting roughly 22% of his balls as line drives, yet only has BABIP of .225, more than .100 points below his expected BABIP. He's been ridiculously unlucky, almost the point that it's a joke. On the other hand a 57% ground ball rate probably isn't as bad as it seems - Upton for instance has a 51% grounder rate this season - and Beckham is fast enough to turn some of those into hits.

So through a few weeks the results that people will speak of for Beckham are hardly accurate of his play thus far. Whether his numbers regress to the mean this season or next doesn't matter too much, the important thing is this kid looks supremely talented.

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Comments

you know what this tells me?

that Brignac will be very very good for us one day…

by davidsmarch on Jul 16, 2008 2:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Too bad he's regressed to the point of a .312 OBP

"I'm like a retarded Adam Dunn mixed with Jason Bartlett" - R.J. Anderson

by P Brady on Jul 16, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's the problem though

Brignac’s low K% shot up the following season and his walk rate didn’t follow like you would hope, in fact here are the %es each season:

K% BB%
9.91 8.26
23.18 7.08
19.61 7.29
15.77 9.22
22.11 6.73

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

up until this year, he looked to be closing the gap,

i consider this year to be the fluke.

by davidsmarch on Jul 16, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So apparently

There was a time when Delmon Young could walk and steal bases.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 16, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I noticed that as well...

He was probably getting pitched around quite a bit at that point.

by td32 on Jul 16, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think a low a high BABIP means there will be a regression to the mean for a hitter...but yes for a pitcher....LD% is a much more telling stat because as line drives go, so does the average...

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

good hitters hit line drives and i don't think those are flukey...see tony gwynn/wade boggs

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

High LD% + Low BABIP = recipe for delicious regression/progression

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yess'r

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

according to BR

Boggs had 1423 career line drives.

Gwynn had 1421 career line drives.

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Actually, it looks like BR only has line drive percentage from 1988 and later...so it is a mystery how many line drives were hit in their first seven or so years.

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gwynn had a .731 BABIP for line drives.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=gwynnto01&year=00#hitty-traj

Boggs had a .686 BABIP for line drives.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=boggswa01

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That is really surprising

I would have assumed the Monster would have increased BABIP for line drives.

by GomesSweetGomes on Jul 16, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

For fun

CC has a .731 BABIP for line drives…

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=gwynnto01&year=00#hitty-traj

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 4:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

okay, last one, i promise.

Delmon Young has a career BABIP of .833 for line drives.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=youngde03&year=00#hitty-traj

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 16, 2008 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Delmon has absurd bat speed

so it’s not a surprise when he squares a ball, it goes for a hit 80% of the time.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 16, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Beckham is going to be a stud

I’ve said it all along. He has too quick of wrists and too good a bat speed to continue to hit this poorly. With some tinkering of his swing (which I can assure you they’re working on), he’s going to develop into a heckuva SS. And yes, a good amount of his errors you can probably chalk up to him simply getting to so many balls. It’s the same reason Bartlett committs a decent amount of errors.

He’ll be fine, and even if he never develops huge power numbers, I’ll take the next Barry Larkin any day of the week.

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on Jul 16, 2008 4:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd gladly take Larkin.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Larkin is my favorite player ever.

He was essentially a less healthy version of Derek Jeter with really good defense.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 16, 2008 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Contact means almost nothing to the BABIP.

by R.J. Anderson on Jul 16, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You guys amaze me with stats.

I’ve learned a lot. Thanks.

by floridaroar on Jul 17, 2008 12:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Don't flatter him, he's not a real fan.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Jul 17, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He doesn't even like baseball...

Top Josh Paul Pornos- Big Navi Stroking, 2pitchers1cup, BJ to the Balls, Riggans Your Thingans

BELIEVE in 08!

by SRQman on Jul 17, 2008 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I got a stat that will blow your mind....

The AL ran out of position players.

9 = 8

by websterjtc on Jul 17, 2008 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Next year extend the rosters to include 75 "All-Stars" each.

by floridaroar on Jul 17, 2008 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about Jeremy Beckham?

Any news on him? Is he even playing?

B Rad the Ray Fan
9 = 8

by B Ray on Jul 17, 2008 2:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Jeremy actually

was up to .300 recently but is now back to .279. His line is .279/.404/.372 with 6 BBs, 6 Ks and 4 doubles in 16 games and 43 ABs. He has played 2B & 3B.

by bobr on Jul 18, 2008 12:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs